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Can we prevent disasters using socioeconomic and political policy tools?

Can we prevent disasters using socioeconomic and political policy tools?
Can we prevent disasters using socioeconomic and political policy tools?
Can a nation prevent a hazard-related disaster by investing in socioeconomic and political policy tools? Drawing on 8 global datasets (1960-2016) and using a fixed effects logit model, we examine the importance of socioeconomic and political factors in changing the likelihood of disasters in 224 countries. We find that socioeconomic factors are of more importance than political factors. Low-income countries are significantly more disaster prone than high-income countries; this effect is stronger and more robust for natural than technological disasters. Higher national population density increases the probability that a hazard turns into a disaster; this effect is much stronger and robust for technological than natural disasters. Educational endowment has a negative and statistically significant effect on the probability of all disasters, especially for natural-related disasters. In terms of political factors, there is no evidence that government composition and federalism influence a country’s natural or technological disaster probability. Nevertheless, there is very weak evidence that quality of governance has a positive and statistically significant effect on the likelihood of disasters. Our findings point out that we can prevent natural and technological disasters by investing in economic development, investing in education, and managing disaster prone in high urban areas. These findings highlight the importance of focusing efforts on addressing larger scale macro-economic, social and cultural distortions that generate vulnerability, as well as the prioritizing investment in both the Sendai Priorities and the Sustainable Development Goals that previously have not been linked to disaster probability.
disaster preparedness and prevention, natural disasters, technological disasters, socioeconomic environment, political environment
2212-4209
Tselios, Vassilis
a1fc70a6-a193-4075-8e36-5b07b65ebd17
Tompkins, Emma
a6116704-7140-4e37-bea1-2cbf39b138c3
Tselios, Vassilis
a1fc70a6-a193-4075-8e36-5b07b65ebd17
Tompkins, Emma
a6116704-7140-4e37-bea1-2cbf39b138c3

Tselios, Vassilis and Tompkins, Emma (2020) Can we prevent disasters using socioeconomic and political policy tools? International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 51 (December 2020), [101764].

Record type: Article

Abstract

Can a nation prevent a hazard-related disaster by investing in socioeconomic and political policy tools? Drawing on 8 global datasets (1960-2016) and using a fixed effects logit model, we examine the importance of socioeconomic and political factors in changing the likelihood of disasters in 224 countries. We find that socioeconomic factors are of more importance than political factors. Low-income countries are significantly more disaster prone than high-income countries; this effect is stronger and more robust for natural than technological disasters. Higher national population density increases the probability that a hazard turns into a disaster; this effect is much stronger and robust for technological than natural disasters. Educational endowment has a negative and statistically significant effect on the probability of all disasters, especially for natural-related disasters. In terms of political factors, there is no evidence that government composition and federalism influence a country’s natural or technological disaster probability. Nevertheless, there is very weak evidence that quality of governance has a positive and statistically significant effect on the likelihood of disasters. Our findings point out that we can prevent natural and technological disasters by investing in economic development, investing in education, and managing disaster prone in high urban areas. These findings highlight the importance of focusing efforts on addressing larger scale macro-economic, social and cultural distortions that generate vulnerability, as well as the prioritizing investment in both the Sendai Priorities and the Sustainable Development Goals that previously have not been linked to disaster probability.

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PAPER_IJDRR_Can_we_prevent_disasters - Accepted Manuscript
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 1 July 2020
Published date: 1 December 2020
Keywords: disaster preparedness and prevention, natural disasters, technological disasters, socioeconomic environment, political environment

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 442815
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/442815
ISSN: 2212-4209
PURE UUID: d6227dac-ecfc-4a68-85e3-ae061fb816ea

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Date deposited: 28 Jul 2020 16:31
Last modified: 09 Jan 2022 08:10

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Contributors

Author: Vassilis Tselios
Author: Emma Tompkins

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