Tselios, Vassilis and Tompkins, Emma (2020) Can we prevent disasters using socioeconomic and political policy tools? International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. (In Press)
Abstract
Can a nation prevent a hazard-related disaster by investing in socioeconomic and political policy tools? Drawing on 8 global datasets (1960-2016) and using a fixed effects logit model, we examine the importance of socioeconomic and political factors in changing the likelihood of disasters in 224 countries. We find that socioeconomic factors are of more importance than political factors. Low-income countries are significantly more disaster prone than high-income countries; this effect is stronger and more robust for natural than technological disasters. Higher national population density increases the probability that a hazard turns into a disaster; this effect is much stronger and robust for technological than natural disasters. Educational endowment has a negative and statistically significant effect on the probability of all disasters, especially for natural-related disasters. In terms of political factors, there is no evidence that government composition and federalism influence a country’s natural or technological disaster probability. Nevertheless, there is very weak evidence that quality of governance has a positive and statistically significant effect on the likelihood of disasters. Our findings point out that we can prevent natural and technological disasters by investing in economic development, investing in education, and managing disaster prone in high urban areas. These findings highlight the importance of focusing efforts on addressing larger scale macro-economic, social and cultural distortions that generate vulnerability, as well as the prioritizing investment in both the Sendai Priorities and the Sustainable Development Goals that previously have not been linked to disaster probability.
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- Faculties (pre 2018 reorg) > Faculty of Engineering and the Environment (pre 2018 reorg) > Southampton Marine & Maritime Institute (pre 2018 reorg)
- Faculties (pre 2018 reorg) > Faculty of Natural and Environmental Sciences (pre 2018 reorg) > Institute for Life Sciences (pre 2018 reorg)
Current Faculties > Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences > Institute for Life Sciences > Institute for Life Sciences (pre 2018 reorg)
Institute for Life Sciences > Institute for Life Sciences (pre 2018 reorg) - Current Faculties > Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences > School of Geography and Environmental Sciences > Environmental Change & Sustainability
School of Geography and Environmental Sciences > Environmental Change & Sustainability
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