The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Can we prevent disasters using socioeconomic and political policy tools?

Can we prevent disasters using socioeconomic and political policy tools?
Can we prevent disasters using socioeconomic and political policy tools?
Can a nation prevent a hazard-related disaster by investing in socioeconomic and political policy tools? Drawing on 8 global datasets (1960-2016) and using a fixed effects logit model, we examine the importance of socioeconomic and political factors in changing the likelihood of disasters in 224 countries. We find that socioeconomic factors are of more importance than political factors. Low-income countries are significantly more disaster prone than high-income countries; this effect is stronger and more robust for natural than technological disasters. Higher national population density increases the probability that a hazard turns into a disaster; this effect is much stronger and robust for technological than natural disasters. Educational endowment has a negative and statistically significant effect on the probability of all disasters, especially for natural-related disasters. In terms of political factors, there is no evidence that government composition and federalism influence a country’s natural or technological disaster probability. Nevertheless, there is very weak evidence that quality of governance has a positive and statistically significant effect on the likelihood of disasters. Our findings point out that we can prevent natural and technological disasters by investing in economic development, investing in education, and managing disaster prone in high urban areas. These findings highlight the importance of focusing efforts on addressing larger scale macro-economic, social and cultural distortions that generate vulnerability, as well as the prioritizing investment in both the Sendai Priorities and the Sustainable Development Goals that previously have not been linked to disaster probability.
disaster preparedness and prevention, natural disasters, technological disasters, socioeconomic environment, political environment
2212-4209
Tselios, Vassilis
a1fc70a6-a193-4075-8e36-5b07b65ebd17
Tompkins, Emma
a6116704-7140-4e37-bea1-2cbf39b138c3
Tselios, Vassilis
a1fc70a6-a193-4075-8e36-5b07b65ebd17
Tompkins, Emma
a6116704-7140-4e37-bea1-2cbf39b138c3

Tselios, Vassilis and Tompkins, Emma (2020) Can we prevent disasters using socioeconomic and political policy tools? International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. (In Press)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Can a nation prevent a hazard-related disaster by investing in socioeconomic and political policy tools? Drawing on 8 global datasets (1960-2016) and using a fixed effects logit model, we examine the importance of socioeconomic and political factors in changing the likelihood of disasters in 224 countries. We find that socioeconomic factors are of more importance than political factors. Low-income countries are significantly more disaster prone than high-income countries; this effect is stronger and more robust for natural than technological disasters. Higher national population density increases the probability that a hazard turns into a disaster; this effect is much stronger and robust for technological than natural disasters. Educational endowment has a negative and statistically significant effect on the probability of all disasters, especially for natural-related disasters. In terms of political factors, there is no evidence that government composition and federalism influence a country’s natural or technological disaster probability. Nevertheless, there is very weak evidence that quality of governance has a positive and statistically significant effect on the likelihood of disasters. Our findings point out that we can prevent natural and technological disasters by investing in economic development, investing in education, and managing disaster prone in high urban areas. These findings highlight the importance of focusing efforts on addressing larger scale macro-economic, social and cultural distortions that generate vulnerability, as well as the prioritizing investment in both the Sendai Priorities and the Sustainable Development Goals that previously have not been linked to disaster probability.

Text
PAPER_IJDRR_Can_we_prevent_disasters - Accepted Manuscript
Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 January 2022.
Request a copy

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 1 July 2020
Keywords: disaster preparedness and prevention, natural disasters, technological disasters, socioeconomic environment, political environment

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 442815
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/442815
ISSN: 2212-4209
PURE UUID: d6227dac-ecfc-4a68-85e3-ae061fb816ea

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 28 Jul 2020 16:31
Last modified: 11 Nov 2020 17:33

Export record

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×