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The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: past, present and future

The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: past, present and future
The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: past, present and future
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is out of equilibrium with the current anthropogenic‐enhanced climate forcing. Paleo‐environmental records and ice sheet models reveal that the AIS has been tightly coupled to the climate system during the past, and indicate the potential for accelerated and sustained Antarctic ice mass loss into the future. Modern observations by contrast suggest that the AIS has only just started to respond to climate change in recent decades. The maximum projected sea level contribution from Antarctica to 2100 has increased significantly since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, although estimates continue to evolve with new observational and theoretical advances. This review brings together recent literature highlighting the progress made on the known processes and feedbacks that influence the stability of the AIS. Reducing the uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of the future sea‐level response to AIS change requires a multi‐disciplinary approach that integrates knowledge of the interactions between the ice sheet, solid Earth, atmosphere, and ocean systems, and across timescales of days to millennia. We start by reviewing the processes affecting AIS mass change, from atmospheric and oceanic processes acting on short timescales (days‐decades), through to ice processes acting on intermediate timescales (decades‐centuries) and the response to solid Earth interactions over longer timescales (decades‐millennia). We then review the evidence of AIS changes from the Pliocene to the present, and consider the projections of global sea‐level rise, and their consequences. We highlight priority research areas required to improve our understanding of the processes and feedbacks governing AIS change.
Antarctic Ice Sheet, climate, interaction, past, processes, sea level
8755-1209
Noble, T. L.
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Rohling, E. J.
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Aitken, A. R. A.
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Bostock, H. C.
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Chase, Z.
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Gomez, N.
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Jong, L. M.
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King, M. A.
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Mackintosh, A. N.
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Mccormack, F. S.
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Mckay, R. M.
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Menviel, L.
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Phipps, S. J.
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Weber, M. E.
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Fogwill, C. J.
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Gayen, B.
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Golledge, N. R.
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Gwyther, D. E.
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Hogg, A. Mc C.
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Martos, Y. M.
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Pena‐molino, B.
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Roberts, J.
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Flierdt, T.
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Williams, T.
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Noble, T. L.
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Rohling, E. J.
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Aitken, A. R. A.
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Bostock, H. C.
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Chase, Z.
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Gomez, N.
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Jong, L. M.
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King, M. A.
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Mackintosh, A. N.
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Mccormack, F. S.
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Mckay, R. M.
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Menviel, L.
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Phipps, S. J.
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Weber, M. E.
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Fogwill, C. J.
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Gayen, B.
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Golledge, N. R.
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Gwyther, D. E.
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Hogg, A. Mc C.
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Martos, Y. M.
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Pena‐molino, B.
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Roberts, J.
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Flierdt, T.
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Williams, T.
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Noble, T. L., Rohling, E. J., Aitken, A. R. A., Bostock, H. C., Chase, Z., Gomez, N., Jong, L. M., King, M. A., Mackintosh, A. N., Mccormack, F. S., Mckay, R. M., Menviel, L., Phipps, S. J., Weber, M. E., Fogwill, C. J., Gayen, B., Golledge, N. R., Gwyther, D. E., Hogg, A. Mc C., Martos, Y. M., Pena‐molino, B., Roberts, J., Flierdt, T. and Williams, T. (2020) The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: past, present and future. Reviews of Geophysics, 58 (4), [e2019RG000663]. (doi:10.1029/2019RG000663).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is out of equilibrium with the current anthropogenic‐enhanced climate forcing. Paleo‐environmental records and ice sheet models reveal that the AIS has been tightly coupled to the climate system during the past, and indicate the potential for accelerated and sustained Antarctic ice mass loss into the future. Modern observations by contrast suggest that the AIS has only just started to respond to climate change in recent decades. The maximum projected sea level contribution from Antarctica to 2100 has increased significantly since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, although estimates continue to evolve with new observational and theoretical advances. This review brings together recent literature highlighting the progress made on the known processes and feedbacks that influence the stability of the AIS. Reducing the uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of the future sea‐level response to AIS change requires a multi‐disciplinary approach that integrates knowledge of the interactions between the ice sheet, solid Earth, atmosphere, and ocean systems, and across timescales of days to millennia. We start by reviewing the processes affecting AIS mass change, from atmospheric and oceanic processes acting on short timescales (days‐decades), through to ice processes acting on intermediate timescales (decades‐centuries) and the response to solid Earth interactions over longer timescales (decades‐millennia). We then review the evidence of AIS changes from the Pliocene to the present, and consider the projections of global sea‐level rise, and their consequences. We highlight priority research areas required to improve our understanding of the processes and feedbacks governing AIS change.

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Noble et al Rev Geophys 2020 in press - Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 11 August 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 15 August 2020
Keywords: Antarctic Ice Sheet, climate, interaction, past, processes, sea level

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 443562
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/443562
ISSN: 8755-1209
PURE UUID: 2ff5616c-66b9-4145-90bd-871ad0c7ae0a
ORCID for E. J. Rohling: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5349-2158

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 01 Sep 2020 16:32
Last modified: 26 Nov 2021 06:57

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Contributors

Author: T. L. Noble
Author: E. J. Rohling ORCID iD
Author: A. R. A. Aitken
Author: H. C. Bostock
Author: Z. Chase
Author: N. Gomez
Author: L. M. Jong
Author: M. A. King
Author: A. N. Mackintosh
Author: F. S. Mccormack
Author: R. M. Mckay
Author: L. Menviel
Author: S. J. Phipps
Author: M. E. Weber
Author: C. J. Fogwill
Author: B. Gayen
Author: N. R. Golledge
Author: D. E. Gwyther
Author: A. Mc C. Hogg
Author: Y. M. Martos
Author: B. Pena‐molino
Author: J. Roberts
Author: T. Flierdt
Author: T. Williams

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