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Modelling household well-being and poverty trajectories: an application to coastal Bangladesh

Modelling household well-being and poverty trajectories: an application to coastal Bangladesh
Modelling household well-being and poverty trajectories: an application to coastal Bangladesh
Resource-based livelihoods are uncertain and potentially unstable due to variability over time, including seasonal variation: this instability threatens marginalised populations who may fall into poverty. However, empirical understanding of trajectories of household well-being and poverty is limited. Here, we present a new household-level model of poverty dynamics based on agents and coping strategies – the Household Economy And Poverty trajectory (HEAP) model. HEAP is based on established economic and social insights into poverty dynamics, with a demonstration of the model calibrated with a qualitative and quantitative household survey in coastal Bangladesh. Economic activity in Bangladesh is highly dependent on natural resources; poverty is widespread; and there is high variability in ecosystem services at multiple temporal scales. The results show that long-term decreases in poverty are predicated more on the stability of, and returns from, livelihoods rather than their diversification. Access to natural resources and ecosystem service benefits are positively correlated with stable income and multidimensional well-being. Households that remain in poverty are those who experience high seasonality of income and are involved in small scale enterprises. Hence, seasonal variability in income places significant limits on natural resources providing routes out of poverty. Further, projected economic trends to 2030 lead to an increase in well-being and a reduction in poverty for most simulated household types.
livelihood diversification, household economy, poverty trajectories, coping strategies, seasonality
1932-6203
Lazar, Attila
d7f835e7-1e3d-4742-b366-af19cf5fc881
Adams, Helen
ae20ed70-91d9-411e-b637-f1e616924942
Adger, W. Neil
9e1cce37-f5a5-4c5c-a536-63137d4cbedd
Nicholls, Robert
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Lazar, Attila
d7f835e7-1e3d-4742-b366-af19cf5fc881
Adams, Helen
ae20ed70-91d9-411e-b637-f1e616924942
Adger, W. Neil
9e1cce37-f5a5-4c5c-a536-63137d4cbedd
Nicholls, Robert
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076

Lazar, Attila, Adams, Helen, Adger, W. Neil and Nicholls, Robert (2020) Modelling household well-being and poverty trajectories: an application to coastal Bangladesh. PLoS ONE. (In Press)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Resource-based livelihoods are uncertain and potentially unstable due to variability over time, including seasonal variation: this instability threatens marginalised populations who may fall into poverty. However, empirical understanding of trajectories of household well-being and poverty is limited. Here, we present a new household-level model of poverty dynamics based on agents and coping strategies – the Household Economy And Poverty trajectory (HEAP) model. HEAP is based on established economic and social insights into poverty dynamics, with a demonstration of the model calibrated with a qualitative and quantitative household survey in coastal Bangladesh. Economic activity in Bangladesh is highly dependent on natural resources; poverty is widespread; and there is high variability in ecosystem services at multiple temporal scales. The results show that long-term decreases in poverty are predicated more on the stability of, and returns from, livelihoods rather than their diversification. Access to natural resources and ecosystem service benefits are positively correlated with stable income and multidimensional well-being. Households that remain in poverty are those who experience high seasonality of income and are involved in small scale enterprises. Hence, seasonal variability in income places significant limits on natural resources providing routes out of poverty. Further, projected economic trends to 2030 lead to an increase in well-being and a reduction in poverty for most simulated household types.

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Accepted/In Press date: 24 August 2020
Keywords: livelihood diversification, household economy, poverty trajectories, coping strategies, seasonality

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 443571
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/443571
ISSN: 1932-6203
PURE UUID: 9998fab9-004c-4dec-851f-d979526381cb
ORCID for Attila Lazar: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2033-2013
ORCID for Robert Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

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Date deposited: 03 Sep 2020 00:38
Last modified: 18 Feb 2021 17:21

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