Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China
Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China, where the initial wave of intense community transmissions was cut short by interventions. Using multiple data sources, here we estimate the disease burden and clinical severity by age of COVID-19 in Wuhan from December 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020. Our estimates account for the sensitivity of the laboratory assays, prospective community screenings, and healthcare seeking behaviors. Rates of symptomatic cases, medical consultations, hospitalizations and deaths were estimated at 796 (95% CI: 703–977), 489 (472–509), 370 (358–384), and 36.2 (35.0–37.3) per 100,000 persons, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan had a higher burden than the 2009 influenza pandemic or seasonal influenza in terms of hospitalization and mortality rates, and clinical severity was similar to that of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Our comparison puts the COVID-19 pandemic into context and could be helpful to guide intervention strategies and preparedness for the potential resurgence of COVID-19.
Yang, Juan
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Chen, Xinhua
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Deng, Xiaowei
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Chen, Zhiyuan
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Gong, Hui
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Yan, Han
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Wu, Qianhui
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Shi, Huilin
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Lai, Shengjie
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Ajelli, Marco
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Viboud, Cecile
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Yu, Hongjie
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27 October 2020
Yang, Juan
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Chen, Xinhua
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Deng, Xiaowei
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Chen, Zhiyuan
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Gong, Hui
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Yan, Han
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Wu, Qianhui
fe16c905-275b-4acc-b463-6e9bab8d6bb0
Shi, Huilin
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Lai, Shengjie
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Ajelli, Marco
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Viboud, Cecile
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Yu, Hongjie
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Yang, Juan, Chen, Xinhua, Deng, Xiaowei, Chen, Zhiyuan, Gong, Hui, Yan, Han, Wu, Qianhui, Shi, Huilin, Lai, Shengjie, Ajelli, Marco, Viboud, Cecile and Yu, Hongjie
(2020)
Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China.
Nature Communications, 11 (1), [5411].
(doi:10.1101/2020.08.27.20183228).
Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China, where the initial wave of intense community transmissions was cut short by interventions. Using multiple data sources, here we estimate the disease burden and clinical severity by age of COVID-19 in Wuhan from December 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020. Our estimates account for the sensitivity of the laboratory assays, prospective community screenings, and healthcare seeking behaviors. Rates of symptomatic cases, medical consultations, hospitalizations and deaths were estimated at 796 (95% CI: 703–977), 489 (472–509), 370 (358–384), and 36.2 (35.0–37.3) per 100,000 persons, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan had a higher burden than the 2009 influenza pandemic or seasonal influenza in terms of hospitalization and mortality rates, and clinical severity was similar to that of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Our comparison puts the COVID-19 pandemic into context and could be helpful to guide intervention strategies and preparedness for the potential resurgence of COVID-19.
Text
2020.08.27.20183228v1.full
- Author's Original
More information
Submitted date: 1 September 2020
Accepted/In Press date: 28 September 2020
Published date: 27 October 2020
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
The study was supported by grants from the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (No. 81525023), National Science and Technology Major Project of China (No. 2018ZX10201001-010, No. 2018ZX10713001-007, No. 2017ZX10103009-005). This study does not necessarily represent the views of the US government or the National Institutes of Health.
Funding Information:
M.A. has received research funding from Seqirus and H.Y. has received research funding from Sanofi Pasteur, GlaxoSmithKline, Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharmaceutical Company, and Shanghai Roche Pharmaceutical Company. None of those research funding is related to COVID-19. All other authors report no competing interests.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 443675
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/443675
ISSN: 2041-1723
PURE UUID: 6ccc5d20-b338-410b-b87c-0af5734f2515
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Date deposited: 08 Sep 2020 16:32
Last modified: 06 Jun 2024 02:03
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Contributors
Author:
Juan Yang
Author:
Xinhua Chen
Author:
Xiaowei Deng
Author:
Zhiyuan Chen
Author:
Hui Gong
Author:
Han Yan
Author:
Qianhui Wu
Author:
Huilin Shi
Author:
Marco Ajelli
Author:
Cecile Viboud
Author:
Hongjie Yu
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