Isolation and social change: assessing the nature and determinants of fertility change in Myanmar

Abstract

Historic fertility declines across Asia suggest that significant social change and the institutional provision of family planning are necessary preconditions for reducing fertility, but Myanmar’s fertility decline took place during a time of authoritarian control and conflict, and prior to the introduction of government family planning programs. This thesis integrates classical demographic methods with geospatial measures of physical and social remoteness and conflict exposure to understand how these factors interact with and potentially influence sexual and reproductive decision making and fertility outcomes in Myanmar. Using newly released census and Demographic Health Survey data, this thesis begins by presenting methods for estimating fertility in Myanmar at several administrative levels, including the introduction of a Myanmar-specific standard fertility schedule. The associations between district level social and demographic characteristics and total fertility are assessed, demonstrating the importance of social and physical remoteness on fertility. Next, factors associated with fertility are examined using the proximate determinants of fertility framework. The social and economic factors associated with entry into marriage are then explored. Finally, the thesis combines individual level reproductive health and fertility data with geolocated conflict-event data to further examine the relationships between conflict exposure and fertility. Ultimately, it is through these processes that this thesis describes fertility changes across Myanmar, contributing to a deeper understanding of how classical demographic theory can be understood and applied to fragile states.

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ORCID for Andrew Hinde: orcid.org/0000-0002-8909-9152

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