Who wins the British lavender vote? (mostly) Labour

Abstract

Does sexuality shape electoral behaviour in British elections? Relying on data from 10,290 individuals, this article provides the first empirical analysis of a sexuality gap between heterosexuals and self-identified lesbian, gay and bisexual voters in Britain. Testing the assumption that LGB voters are electorally incentivised to vote for socially liberal parties that advocate pro-LGBT+ positions, empirically I find that Britain’s lavender voters are significantly more supportive of the UK’s socially liberal parties. The sexuality gap is substantive with LGBs 9.65 percentage-points more likely to vote for Labour and 13.64 percentage-points more likely to vote for any socially liberal party via-à-vis their heterosexual peers. Importantly, the sexuality gap holds across the youngest cohort of the electorate who became of political age after the introduction of same-sex marriage. Finally, whilst there is strong amount of support for the Liberal Democrats who acted as entrepreneurial advocate of LGBT+ rights in the UK, evidence suggests that a lack of significantly increased support from LGBs at the ballot box may be the result of strategic concerns. The results are important as they highlight the substantive role of sexuality in shaping electoral choices which has hereto not been considered in models of British electoral behaviour.

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ORCID for Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte: orcid.org/0000-0002-9330-3945

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