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Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean

Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean
Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean
Changes in marine primary productivity are key to determine how climate change might impact marine ecosystems and fisheries. Satellite ocean color sensors provide coverage of global ocean chlorophyll with a combined record length of ~ 20 years. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models can inform on expected changes and are used here to constrain observational trend estimates and their uncertainty. We produce estimates of ocean surface chlorophyll trends, by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models to form priors as a “first guess”, which are then updated using satellite observations in a Bayesian spatio-temporal model. Regional chlorophyll trends are found to be significantly different from zero in 18/23 regions, in the range ± 1.8% year−1. A global average of these regional trends shows a net positive trend of 0.08 ± 0.35% year−1, highlighting the importance of considering chlorophyll changes at a regional level. We compare these results with estimates obtained with the commonly used “vague” prior, representing no independent knowledge; coupled model priors are shown to slightly reduce trend magnitude and uncertainties in most regions. The statistical model used here provides a robust framework for making best use of all available information and can be applied to improve understanding of global change.
2045-2322
Hammond, Matthew L.
5c6509e8-0e13-4afa-9b8f-b8601462a93b
Beaulieu, Claudie
13ae2c11-ebfe-48d9-bda9-122cd013c021
Henson, Stephanie A.
d6532e17-a65b-4d7b-9ee3-755ecb565c19
Sahu, Sujit K.
33f1386d-6d73-4b60-a796-d626721f72bf
Hammond, Matthew L.
5c6509e8-0e13-4afa-9b8f-b8601462a93b
Beaulieu, Claudie
13ae2c11-ebfe-48d9-bda9-122cd013c021
Henson, Stephanie A.
d6532e17-a65b-4d7b-9ee3-755ecb565c19
Sahu, Sujit K.
33f1386d-6d73-4b60-a796-d626721f72bf

Hammond, Matthew L., Beaulieu, Claudie, Henson, Stephanie A. and Sahu, Sujit K. (2020) Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean. Scientific Reports, 10 (1), [15273]. (doi:10.1038/s41598-020-72073-9).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Changes in marine primary productivity are key to determine how climate change might impact marine ecosystems and fisheries. Satellite ocean color sensors provide coverage of global ocean chlorophyll with a combined record length of ~ 20 years. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models can inform on expected changes and are used here to constrain observational trend estimates and their uncertainty. We produce estimates of ocean surface chlorophyll trends, by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models to form priors as a “first guess”, which are then updated using satellite observations in a Bayesian spatio-temporal model. Regional chlorophyll trends are found to be significantly different from zero in 18/23 regions, in the range ± 1.8% year−1. A global average of these regional trends shows a net positive trend of 0.08 ± 0.35% year−1, highlighting the importance of considering chlorophyll changes at a regional level. We compare these results with estimates obtained with the commonly used “vague” prior, representing no independent knowledge; coupled model priors are shown to slightly reduce trend magnitude and uncertainties in most regions. The statistical model used here provides a robust framework for making best use of all available information and can be applied to improve understanding of global change.

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s41598-020-72073-9 (1) - Version of Record
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 21 August 2020
Published date: 17 September 2020

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 444456
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/444456
ISSN: 2045-2322
PURE UUID: 6f3f9ef1-7089-498b-b714-7e017b889fc3
ORCID for Matthew L. Hammond: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8918-2351
ORCID for Sujit K. Sahu: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2315-3598

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 20 Oct 2020 16:30
Last modified: 18 Feb 2021 16:55

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