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Flattening the curves: on-off lock-down strategies for COVID-19 with an application to Brazil

Flattening the curves: on-off lock-down strategies for COVID-19 with an application to Brazil
Flattening the curves: on-off lock-down strategies for COVID-19 with an application to Brazil

The current COVID-19 pandemic is affecting different countries in different ways. The assortment of reporting techniques alongside other issues, such as underreporting and budgetary constraints, makes predicting the spread and lethality of the virus a challenging task. This work attempts to gain a better understanding of how COVID-19 will affect one of the least studied countries, namely Brazil. Currently, several Brazilian states are in a state of lock-down. However, there is political pressure for this type of measures to be lifted. This work considers the impact that such a termination would have on how the virus evolves locally. This was done by extending the SEIR model with an on / off strategy. Given the simplicity of SEIR we also attempted to gain more insight by developing a neural regressor. We chose to employ features that current clinical studies have pinpointed has having a connection to the lethality of COVID-19. We discuss how this data can be processed in order to obtain a robust assessment.

Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13362-020-00098-w.

COVID-19, Coronavirus, Lockdown, Neural network, Quarantine, Seir models
2190-5983
Tarrataca, Luís
4b864905-484c-43d6-b0f4-6e634e49a8d3
Dias, Claudia Mazza
95b06278-5b4f-4b12-aa33-68a096f4a436
Haddad, Diego Barreto
339a6dff-218b-4cd4-bcae-abf3bf2554fa
Arruda, Edilson F.
8eb3bd83-e883-4bf3-bfbc-7887c5daa911
Tarrataca, Luís
4b864905-484c-43d6-b0f4-6e634e49a8d3
Dias, Claudia Mazza
95b06278-5b4f-4b12-aa33-68a096f4a436
Haddad, Diego Barreto
339a6dff-218b-4cd4-bcae-abf3bf2554fa
Arruda, Edilson F.
8eb3bd83-e883-4bf3-bfbc-7887c5daa911

Tarrataca, Luís, Dias, Claudia Mazza, Haddad, Diego Barreto and Arruda, Edilson F. (2021) Flattening the curves: on-off lock-down strategies for COVID-19 with an application to Brazil. Journal of Mathematics in Industry, 11 (1), [2]. (doi:10.1186/s13362-020-00098-w).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The current COVID-19 pandemic is affecting different countries in different ways. The assortment of reporting techniques alongside other issues, such as underreporting and budgetary constraints, makes predicting the spread and lethality of the virus a challenging task. This work attempts to gain a better understanding of how COVID-19 will affect one of the least studied countries, namely Brazil. Currently, several Brazilian states are in a state of lock-down. However, there is political pressure for this type of measures to be lifted. This work considers the impact that such a termination would have on how the virus evolves locally. This was done by extending the SEIR model with an on / off strategy. Given the simplicity of SEIR we also attempted to gain more insight by developing a neural regressor. We chose to employ features that current clinical studies have pinpointed has having a connection to the lethality of COVID-19. We discuss how this data can be processed in order to obtain a robust assessment.

Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13362-020-00098-w.

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Accepted/In Press date: 26 December 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 6 January 2021
Published date: 6 January 2021
Additional Information: Funding Information: This study was partly supported by the Brazilian Research Council—CNPq, under grants #431215/2016-2 and #311075/2018-5 and by Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES) [Finance Code 001] and FAPERJ grant 210.251/2019—APQ1 2019 program. Funding Information: Lu?s Tarrataca is a Professor at the department of computer engineering of CEFET-RJ and a researcher at LNCC?s Quantum Computing Group in Rio de Janeiro. He received his B.Sc. (2007), M.Sc (2008) and Ph.D (2013) degrees from Instituto T?cnico / Techincal University of Lisbon. His research interests include quantum computation, quantum information, machine learning, computer vision and artificial intelligence algorithms. Claudia Mazza Dias Claudia Mazza Dias was born in Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, in 1969. She received the B.Sc. degree in Civil Engineering in 1993, and the M.Sc. and D.Sc. degrees in civil Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 1995 and 2001, respectively. She is currently a faculty member at the Mathematical and Computational Modeling Program, and Graduate School in Mathematics at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro, Nova Igua?u, Brazil. Her research interests include mathematical biology, epidemic control problems, viral disease dynamics, models in ecology and other applications of applied mathematics. Diego Barreto Haddad was born in Niter?i, RJ, Brazil, in 1983. He received the B.Sc. degree in Electrical Engineering in 2005, and the M.Sc. and D.Sc. degrees in Electrical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2008 and 2013, respectively. He is with the Federal Center for Technological Education (CEFET/RJ). His research interests include signal processing, machine learning, computer vision and adaptive filtering algorithms. Edilson Fernandes de Arruda was born in Campo Grande MS, Brazil, in 1977. He received the B.Sc. degree in Electrical Engineering from the Federal University of Mato Grosso, Cuiab?, Brazil, in 2000, and the M.Sc. and D.Sc. degrees in Electrical Engineering from the State University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil, in 2002 and 2006, respectively. He is currently a faculty member at the Industrial Engineering Program, Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute?Graduate School and Research in Engineering, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. His research interests include operations research, stochastic optimal control, Markov decision processes, dynamic programming, reinforcement learning and healthcare modelling and optimisation. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).
Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, Lockdown, Neural network, Quarantine, Seir models

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 444559
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/444559
ISSN: 2190-5983
PURE UUID: d191e126-287b-47e4-b782-e21fcc8d7816
ORCID for Edilson F. Arruda: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9835-352X

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Date deposited: 26 Oct 2020 17:30
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 04:04

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Contributors

Author: Luís Tarrataca
Author: Claudia Mazza Dias
Author: Diego Barreto Haddad
Author: Edilson F. Arruda ORCID iD

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