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Demand forecast and optimal planning of intensive care unit (ICU) capacity

Demand forecast and optimal planning of intensive care unit (ICU) capacity
Demand forecast and optimal planning of intensive care unit (ICU) capacity
Critical Care is a medical specialty which addresses the life-saving and lifesustaining management of patients at risk of imminent death. The number of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds has an impact on patient’s prognosis. This paper aims to determine the optimal number of ICU beds to reduce patient’s waiting time. Time series was applied to predict demand making use of information on the daily patient’s requests for ICU beds to obtain a demand forecast by means of exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins models, which provided the input of a Queuing model. The outputs were the optimal number of ICU beds, in different scenarios, based on demand rate and patient’s length of stay (LOS). A maximumwaiting time in the queue of 6 hourswas proposed and compared to government recommendation (118-353 beds). The need for ICU beds varied from 345 to 592 for a 6-hour waiting time (for a LOS of 6.5 to 11.2 days, respectively). The results show that managing demand and discharge timing could control the queue. Moreover, they also suggest that the current recommendation is inadequate for the demand.
Health services accessibility, Hospital bed capacity, Intensive care unit, Systems theory, Time series, Unified health system
1678-5142
229-245
Angelo, Simone A.
2295eda3-53a9-40f5-b8a3-a0a33ee65707
Arruda, Edilson F.
8eb3bd83-e883-4bf3-bfbc-7887c5daa911
Goldwasser, Rosane
2453979b-3e3a-44f2-bbfb-db313e76d1f5
Lobo, Maria S.C.
1621c294-38a6-4523-99a3-bc82dddf3a86
Salles, André
3d34a49d-410d-422b-bd60-3e81de2f6a6d
e Silva, José Roberto Lapa
2809538b-aaab-4b0b-8e48-c58dc6a4a8ab
Angelo, Simone A.
2295eda3-53a9-40f5-b8a3-a0a33ee65707
Arruda, Edilson F.
8eb3bd83-e883-4bf3-bfbc-7887c5daa911
Goldwasser, Rosane
2453979b-3e3a-44f2-bbfb-db313e76d1f5
Lobo, Maria S.C.
1621c294-38a6-4523-99a3-bc82dddf3a86
Salles, André
3d34a49d-410d-422b-bd60-3e81de2f6a6d
e Silva, José Roberto Lapa
2809538b-aaab-4b0b-8e48-c58dc6a4a8ab

Angelo, Simone A., Arruda, Edilson F., Goldwasser, Rosane, Lobo, Maria S.C., Salles, André and e Silva, José Roberto Lapa (2017) Demand forecast and optimal planning of intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Pesquisa Operacional, 37 (2), 229-245. (doi:10.1590/0101-7438.2017.037.02.0229).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Critical Care is a medical specialty which addresses the life-saving and lifesustaining management of patients at risk of imminent death. The number of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds has an impact on patient’s prognosis. This paper aims to determine the optimal number of ICU beds to reduce patient’s waiting time. Time series was applied to predict demand making use of information on the daily patient’s requests for ICU beds to obtain a demand forecast by means of exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins models, which provided the input of a Queuing model. The outputs were the optimal number of ICU beds, in different scenarios, based on demand rate and patient’s length of stay (LOS). A maximumwaiting time in the queue of 6 hourswas proposed and compared to government recommendation (118-353 beds). The need for ICU beds varied from 345 to 592 for a 6-hour waiting time (for a LOS of 6.5 to 11.2 days, respectively). The results show that managing demand and discharge timing could control the queue. Moreover, they also suggest that the current recommendation is inadequate for the demand.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 20 June 2017
Published date: 1 July 2017
Keywords: Health services accessibility, Hospital bed capacity, Intensive care unit, Systems theory, Time series, Unified health system

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 444776
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/444776
ISSN: 1678-5142
PURE UUID: 47e42b09-73a8-47ad-a4bb-9c98be3d9f3a
ORCID for Edilson F. Arruda: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9835-352X

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Date deposited: 04 Nov 2020 17:31
Last modified: 28 Apr 2022 02:31

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Contributors

Author: Simone A. Angelo
Author: Rosane Goldwasser
Author: Maria S.C. Lobo
Author: André Salles
Author: José Roberto Lapa e Silva

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