The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository
Warning ePrints Soton is experiencing an issue with some file downloads not being available. We are working hard to fix this. Please bear with us.

Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble

Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble
Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble
Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.
CMIP6, future change, high resolution, model bias, tracking algorithms, tropical cyclones
0094-8276
Roberts, Malcolm John
aceeca77-b72a-4e86-a7a8-6be818c7a674
Camp, Joanne
fa02a521-2afa-4cb9-a7a0-692c0484a790
Seddon, Jon
98b08c30-1d1c-475f-b750-36b7e15bb81d
Vidale, Pier Luigi
80c49f18-a2e4-41e4-846a-c083d38a3ad8
Hodges, Kevin
c479854e-7af4-40bf-819d-15513700425b
Vannière, Benoît
fd9185a0-60c2-4130-ad43-16d235d0b888
Mecking, Jenny
9b090069-5061-4340-b736-9690894ce203
Haarsma, Rein
a1c40e8b-9dce-4e33-8610-7589461c5166
Bellucci, Alessio
9b49ca54-c977-448d-a4e7-34930d4b0017
Scoccimarro, Enrico
318c441a-676b-4c2b-9f26-b10c5f386ded
Caron, Louis‐philippe
c9a3f903-bc0a-45b3-b7e3-91d0a48b54b7
Chauvin, Fabrice
91fbb104-24bc-475f-9d58-146fb5b47739
Terray, Laurent
21d67f9e-3439-4c95-a221-ae70687bceca
Valcke, Sophie
7053701c-2475-4ff3-86d9-5025f3e5982f
Moine, Marie‐pierre
a5a2534a-b08d-42b3-8b51-52494882595e
Putrasahan, Dian
44ce17b6-a3bc-48d4-be17-117e82f68390
Roberts, Christopher D.
4f3eb6ea-2941-481b-a3fc-ac5ce444167d
Senan, Retish
4a2d538b-a08f-4840-b9cc-763c3c8f8877
Zarzycki, Colin
7a9b39d2-b202-489d-8456-1d28f729b25c
Ullrich, Paul
cdfa16e2-56ad-41dd-87c3-fe62746af105
Yamada, Yohei
dc39a635-ee3a-4aa8-b742-f4f8d7c50c85
Mizuta, Ryo
fd136ac7-c028-42d0-b41a-a1923cf4387a
Kodama, Chihiro
88724c75-425c-4da1-a775-50c9d7f54452
Fu, Dan
c1719abe-15a1-4396-8c2b-40f65204a450
Zhang, Qiuying
d45b8f29-6624-49dd-baa9-867c1f0fd6ca
Danabasoglu, Gokhan
b375ba05-ef85-4931-8aff-a8313b2f17fa
Rosenbloom, Nan
43d95660-3bfb-4228-8835-2ebc4002a839
Wang, Hong
dfd0ec4f-682a-4596-a0d1-171313cc5733
Wu, Lixin
5f7d120d-2504-479a-80c1-cc270b2cb5eb
Roberts, Malcolm John
aceeca77-b72a-4e86-a7a8-6be818c7a674
Camp, Joanne
fa02a521-2afa-4cb9-a7a0-692c0484a790
Seddon, Jon
98b08c30-1d1c-475f-b750-36b7e15bb81d
Vidale, Pier Luigi
80c49f18-a2e4-41e4-846a-c083d38a3ad8
Hodges, Kevin
c479854e-7af4-40bf-819d-15513700425b
Vannière, Benoît
fd9185a0-60c2-4130-ad43-16d235d0b888
Mecking, Jenny
9b090069-5061-4340-b736-9690894ce203
Haarsma, Rein
a1c40e8b-9dce-4e33-8610-7589461c5166
Bellucci, Alessio
9b49ca54-c977-448d-a4e7-34930d4b0017
Scoccimarro, Enrico
318c441a-676b-4c2b-9f26-b10c5f386ded
Caron, Louis‐philippe
c9a3f903-bc0a-45b3-b7e3-91d0a48b54b7
Chauvin, Fabrice
91fbb104-24bc-475f-9d58-146fb5b47739
Terray, Laurent
21d67f9e-3439-4c95-a221-ae70687bceca
Valcke, Sophie
7053701c-2475-4ff3-86d9-5025f3e5982f
Moine, Marie‐pierre
a5a2534a-b08d-42b3-8b51-52494882595e
Putrasahan, Dian
44ce17b6-a3bc-48d4-be17-117e82f68390
Roberts, Christopher D.
4f3eb6ea-2941-481b-a3fc-ac5ce444167d
Senan, Retish
4a2d538b-a08f-4840-b9cc-763c3c8f8877
Zarzycki, Colin
7a9b39d2-b202-489d-8456-1d28f729b25c
Ullrich, Paul
cdfa16e2-56ad-41dd-87c3-fe62746af105
Yamada, Yohei
dc39a635-ee3a-4aa8-b742-f4f8d7c50c85
Mizuta, Ryo
fd136ac7-c028-42d0-b41a-a1923cf4387a
Kodama, Chihiro
88724c75-425c-4da1-a775-50c9d7f54452
Fu, Dan
c1719abe-15a1-4396-8c2b-40f65204a450
Zhang, Qiuying
d45b8f29-6624-49dd-baa9-867c1f0fd6ca
Danabasoglu, Gokhan
b375ba05-ef85-4931-8aff-a8313b2f17fa
Rosenbloom, Nan
43d95660-3bfb-4228-8835-2ebc4002a839
Wang, Hong
dfd0ec4f-682a-4596-a0d1-171313cc5733
Wu, Lixin
5f7d120d-2504-479a-80c1-cc270b2cb5eb

Roberts, Malcolm John, Camp, Joanne, Seddon, Jon, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Hodges, Kevin, Vannière, Benoît, Mecking, Jenny, Haarsma, Rein, Bellucci, Alessio, Scoccimarro, Enrico, Caron, Louis‐philippe, Chauvin, Fabrice, Terray, Laurent, Valcke, Sophie, Moine, Marie‐pierre, Putrasahan, Dian, Roberts, Christopher D., Senan, Retish, Zarzycki, Colin, Ullrich, Paul, Yamada, Yohei, Mizuta, Ryo, Kodama, Chihiro, Fu, Dan, Zhang, Qiuying, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Rosenbloom, Nan, Wang, Hong and Wu, Lixin (2020) Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (14), [e2020GL088662]. (doi:10.1029/2020GL088662).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

Text
2020GL088662 - Version of Record
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
Download (3MB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 9 June 2020
Published date: 28 July 2020
Keywords: CMIP6, future change, high resolution, model bias, tracking algorithms, tropical cyclones

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 444788
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/444788
ISSN: 0094-8276
PURE UUID: 55ed2fa1-7a5e-4329-bc64-33e10795254e

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 04 Nov 2020 17:33
Last modified: 25 Nov 2021 20:38

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Malcolm John Roberts
Author: Joanne Camp
Author: Jon Seddon
Author: Pier Luigi Vidale
Author: Kevin Hodges
Author: Benoît Vannière
Author: Jenny Mecking
Author: Rein Haarsma
Author: Alessio Bellucci
Author: Enrico Scoccimarro
Author: Louis‐philippe Caron
Author: Fabrice Chauvin
Author: Laurent Terray
Author: Sophie Valcke
Author: Marie‐pierre Moine
Author: Dian Putrasahan
Author: Christopher D. Roberts
Author: Retish Senan
Author: Colin Zarzycki
Author: Paul Ullrich
Author: Yohei Yamada
Author: Ryo Mizuta
Author: Chihiro Kodama
Author: Dan Fu
Author: Qiuying Zhang
Author: Gokhan Danabasoglu
Author: Nan Rosenbloom
Author: Hong Wang
Author: Lixin Wu

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×