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Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing

Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing
Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing
Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, adherence, case isolation, contact tracing, quarantine
0962-8436
Lucas, Tim
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Davies, Emma
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Ayabina, Diepreye
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Borlase, Anna
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Crellen, Thomas
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Pi, Li
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Medley, Graham
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Yardley, Lucy
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Klepac, Petra
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Gog, Julia
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Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre
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Lucas, Tim
bfb40786-99c7-4899-976e-0d02da88994b
Davies, Emma
10623b59-7f31-42d0-97b8-db7868b8e657
Ayabina, Diepreye
2b6dcc8a-bd78-4f28-822c-bfd4537c2505
Borlase, Anna
af84422f-301d-4168-9c10-d6c85a413ce6
Crellen, Thomas
7f7b03ff-0ad6-4e9b-b97b-5be3505b917b
Pi, Li
0eeaa0b7-db73-4e58-b1ca-0921e533b2e8
Medley, Graham
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Yardley, Lucy
64be42c4-511d-484d-abaa-f8813452a22e
Klepac, Petra
e8c1f0f0-18e5-414b-a11d-9e4639a8cd76
Gog, Julia
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Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre
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Lucas, Tim, Davies, Emma, Ayabina, Diepreye, Borlase, Anna, Crellen, Thomas, Pi, Li, Medley, Graham, Yardley, Lucy, Klepac, Petra, Gog, Julia and Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre (2021) Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences, 376 (1829), [20200270]. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0270).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

Text
2020.08.20.20178558v1.full - Author's Original
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 24 October 2020
Published date: 21 July 2021
Additional Information: Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, adherence, case isolation, contact tracing, quarantine

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 445257
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/445257
ISSN: 0962-8436
PURE UUID: 5e1f888e-70b3-4bc9-90e1-5a5bc823f36c
ORCID for Lucy Yardley: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3853-883X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 26 Nov 2020 17:32
Last modified: 06 Jun 2024 01:37

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Contributors

Author: Tim Lucas
Author: Emma Davies
Author: Diepreye Ayabina
Author: Anna Borlase
Author: Thomas Crellen
Author: Li Pi
Author: Graham Medley
Author: Lucy Yardley ORCID iD
Author: Petra Klepac
Author: Julia Gog
Author: T. Deirdre Hollingsworth

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