The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing

Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing
Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing
Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, adherence, case isolation, contact tracing, quarantine
0962-8436
Lucas, Tim
bfb40786-99c7-4899-976e-0d02da88994b
Davies, Emma
10623b59-7f31-42d0-97b8-db7868b8e657
Ayabina, Diepreye
2b6dcc8a-bd78-4f28-822c-bfd4537c2505
Borlase, Anna
af84422f-301d-4168-9c10-d6c85a413ce6
Crellen, Thomas
7f7b03ff-0ad6-4e9b-b97b-5be3505b917b
Pi, Li
0eeaa0b7-db73-4e58-b1ca-0921e533b2e8
Medley, Graham
6cb3010d-7d2b-4bc9-b8c1-b4d9ce031372
Yardley, Lucy
64be42c4-511d-484d-abaa-f8813452a22e
Klepac, Petra
e8c1f0f0-18e5-414b-a11d-9e4639a8cd76
Gog, Julia
9c1c5d6f-d10c-4e36-b469-ccee68512302
Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre
304c2fda-df92-46fa-ac28-ac9523fb7467
Lucas, Tim
bfb40786-99c7-4899-976e-0d02da88994b
Davies, Emma
10623b59-7f31-42d0-97b8-db7868b8e657
Ayabina, Diepreye
2b6dcc8a-bd78-4f28-822c-bfd4537c2505
Borlase, Anna
af84422f-301d-4168-9c10-d6c85a413ce6
Crellen, Thomas
7f7b03ff-0ad6-4e9b-b97b-5be3505b917b
Pi, Li
0eeaa0b7-db73-4e58-b1ca-0921e533b2e8
Medley, Graham
6cb3010d-7d2b-4bc9-b8c1-b4d9ce031372
Yardley, Lucy
64be42c4-511d-484d-abaa-f8813452a22e
Klepac, Petra
e8c1f0f0-18e5-414b-a11d-9e4639a8cd76
Gog, Julia
9c1c5d6f-d10c-4e36-b469-ccee68512302
Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre
304c2fda-df92-46fa-ac28-ac9523fb7467

Lucas, Tim, Davies, Emma, Ayabina, Diepreye, Borlase, Anna, Crellen, Thomas, Pi, Li, Medley, Graham, Yardley, Lucy, Klepac, Petra, Gog, Julia and Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre (2021) Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences, 376 (1829), [20200270]. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0270).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

Text
2020.08.20.20178558v1.full - Author's Original
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
Download (1MB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 24 October 2020
Published date: 21 July 2021
Additional Information: Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, adherence, case isolation, contact tracing, quarantine

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 445257
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/445257
ISSN: 0962-8436
PURE UUID: 5e1f888e-70b3-4bc9-90e1-5a5bc823f36c
ORCID for Lucy Yardley: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3853-883X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 26 Nov 2020 17:32
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 02:47

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Tim Lucas
Author: Emma Davies
Author: Diepreye Ayabina
Author: Anna Borlase
Author: Thomas Crellen
Author: Li Pi
Author: Graham Medley
Author: Lucy Yardley ORCID iD
Author: Petra Klepac
Author: Julia Gog
Author: T. Deirdre Hollingsworth

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×