Chance played a role in determining whether Earth stayed habitable

Tyrrell, Toby (2020) Chance played a role in determining whether Earth stayed habitable. Communications Earth & Environment. (doi:10.1038/s43247-020-00057-8).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Geological data demonstrate that Earth’s climate has remained continuously habitable throughout ~3 billion years. This presents a puzzle (the ‘habitability problem’) because loss of habitability appears to have been more likely. Solar luminosity has increased by 30% over this time, which would, if not somehow counteracted, have caused sterility. Furthermore, Earth’s climate is precariously balanced, potentially able to deteriorate to deep-frozen conditions within as little as 1 million years. Here I present results from a novel simulation in which thousands of planets were given randomly generated climate feedbacks and tested to see if they stayed habitable. The conventional view attributes Earth’s extended habitability solely to stabilising mechanisms. The simulation results shown here reveal instead that chance also plays a role in outcomes and therefore that Earth’s 3 billion years of habitability was most likely a contingent rather than an inevitable outcome.

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