Multiple systems estimation of victims of human trafficking: Model assessment and selection
Multiple systems estimation of victims of human trafficking: Model assessment and selection
Recently, multiple systems estimation (MSE) has been applied to estimate the number of victims of human trafficking in different countries. The estimation procedure consists of a log-linear analysis of a contingency table of population registers and covariates. As the number of potential models increases exponentially with the number of registers and covariates, it is practically impossible to fit and compare all models. Therefore, the model search needs to be restricted to a small subset of all potential models. This paper addresses principles and criteria for model assessment and selection for MSE of human trafficking with special attention to sparsity which is typical to human trafficking data. The concepts are illustrated on data from Slovakia and Romania.
AIC, BIC, information criteria, log-linear modeling, modern slavery
Cruyff, Maarten
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Overstall, Antony
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Papathomas, Michail
76b40bb9-372f-4e0d-8e2c-58bc9e1499c4
McCrea, Rachel
23327da4-5a8f-4600-8447-ea75beea3286
Cruyff, Maarten
5872d315-27b9-4be4-a61b-9bae0ce0a8f7
Overstall, Antony
c1d6c8bd-1c5f-49ee-a845-ec9ec7b20910
Papathomas, Michail
76b40bb9-372f-4e0d-8e2c-58bc9e1499c4
McCrea, Rachel
23327da4-5a8f-4600-8447-ea75beea3286
Cruyff, Maarten, Overstall, Antony, Papathomas, Michail and McCrea, Rachel
(2020)
Multiple systems estimation of victims of human trafficking: Model assessment and selection.
Crime and Delinquency.
(doi:10.1177/0011128720981908).
Abstract
Recently, multiple systems estimation (MSE) has been applied to estimate the number of victims of human trafficking in different countries. The estimation procedure consists of a log-linear analysis of a contingency table of population registers and covariates. As the number of potential models increases exponentially with the number of registers and covariates, it is practically impossible to fit and compare all models. Therefore, the model search needs to be restricted to a small subset of all potential models. This paper addresses principles and criteria for model assessment and selection for MSE of human trafficking with special attention to sparsity which is typical to human trafficking data. The concepts are illustrated on data from Slovakia and Romania.
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Accepted/In Press date: 3 December 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 22 December 2020
Keywords:
AIC, BIC, information criteria, log-linear modeling, modern slavery
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Local EPrints ID: 445653
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/445653
ISSN: 0011-1287
PURE UUID: 1a0ef9e6-618a-48bd-82af-93ea84fd2934
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Date deposited: 05 Jan 2021 17:32
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:09
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Contributors
Author:
Maarten Cruyff
Author:
Michail Papathomas
Author:
Rachel McCrea
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