Modeling biodiversity loss by global warming on Pantepui, northern South America: Projected upward migration and potential habitat loss
Modeling biodiversity loss by global warming on Pantepui, northern South America: Projected upward migration and potential habitat loss
This work aims to estimate the potential effects of the global warming projected for the twenty-first century on the biodiversity of a remote and pristine region of the Neotropics called Pantepui. Habitat loss and fragmentation by upward migration of bioclimatic conditions is analyzed using Species-Area Relationships (SAR) and Altitudinal Range Displacement (ARD) analysis. The ARD is a tool that uses the present-day lapse rate to estimate the upward migration of the species based on the global warming predicted by the IPCC. The results show that around 80% of the vascular flora, ca. 1,700 species of which up to 400 would be Pantepui endemics, are threatened of extinction. These estimates should be considered preliminary, but the danger is real. Therefore, suitable conservation or mitigation strategies are needed.
77-85
Nogué, Sandra
5b464cff-a158-481f-8b7f-647c93d7a034
Rull, Valentí
afd31aba-0540-4788-abea-f5f9e3ec3021
Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa
f1a5df04-58b9-4d16-823c-47c193f63f01
1 May 2009
Nogué, Sandra
5b464cff-a158-481f-8b7f-647c93d7a034
Rull, Valentí
afd31aba-0540-4788-abea-f5f9e3ec3021
Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa
f1a5df04-58b9-4d16-823c-47c193f63f01
Nogué, Sandra, Rull, Valentí and Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa
(2009)
Modeling biodiversity loss by global warming on Pantepui, northern South America: Projected upward migration and potential habitat loss.
Climatic Change, 94 (1-2), .
(doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9554-x).
Abstract
This work aims to estimate the potential effects of the global warming projected for the twenty-first century on the biodiversity of a remote and pristine region of the Neotropics called Pantepui. Habitat loss and fragmentation by upward migration of bioclimatic conditions is analyzed using Species-Area Relationships (SAR) and Altitudinal Range Displacement (ARD) analysis. The ARD is a tool that uses the present-day lapse rate to estimate the upward migration of the species based on the global warming predicted by the IPCC. The results show that around 80% of the vascular flora, ca. 1,700 species of which up to 400 would be Pantepui endemics, are threatened of extinction. These estimates should be considered preliminary, but the danger is real. Therefore, suitable conservation or mitigation strategies are needed.
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Published date: 1 May 2009
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Local EPrints ID: 445873
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/445873
ISSN: 0165-0009
PURE UUID: 9b99753a-8b6f-4ea5-a0ce-84e3bdfcd0fa
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Date deposited: 12 Jan 2021 17:33
Last modified: 18 Mar 2024 03:33
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Author:
Valentí Rull
Author:
Teresa Vegas-Vilarrúbia
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