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Modeling biodiversity loss by global warming on Pantepui, northern South America: Projected upward migration and potential habitat loss

Modeling biodiversity loss by global warming on Pantepui, northern South America: Projected upward migration and potential habitat loss
Modeling biodiversity loss by global warming on Pantepui, northern South America: Projected upward migration and potential habitat loss

This work aims to estimate the potential effects of the global warming projected for the twenty-first century on the biodiversity of a remote and pristine region of the Neotropics called Pantepui. Habitat loss and fragmentation by upward migration of bioclimatic conditions is analyzed using Species-Area Relationships (SAR) and Altitudinal Range Displacement (ARD) analysis. The ARD is a tool that uses the present-day lapse rate to estimate the upward migration of the species based on the global warming predicted by the IPCC. The results show that around 80% of the vascular flora, ca. 1,700 species of which up to 400 would be Pantepui endemics, are threatened of extinction. These estimates should be considered preliminary, but the danger is real. Therefore, suitable conservation or mitigation strategies are needed.

0165-0009
77-85
Nogué, Sandra
5b464cff-a158-481f-8b7f-647c93d7a034
Rull, Valentí
afd31aba-0540-4788-abea-f5f9e3ec3021
Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa
f1a5df04-58b9-4d16-823c-47c193f63f01
Nogué, Sandra
5b464cff-a158-481f-8b7f-647c93d7a034
Rull, Valentí
afd31aba-0540-4788-abea-f5f9e3ec3021
Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa
f1a5df04-58b9-4d16-823c-47c193f63f01

Nogué, Sandra, Rull, Valentí and Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa (2009) Modeling biodiversity loss by global warming on Pantepui, northern South America: Projected upward migration and potential habitat loss. Climatic Change, 94 (1-2), 77-85. (doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9554-x).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This work aims to estimate the potential effects of the global warming projected for the twenty-first century on the biodiversity of a remote and pristine region of the Neotropics called Pantepui. Habitat loss and fragmentation by upward migration of bioclimatic conditions is analyzed using Species-Area Relationships (SAR) and Altitudinal Range Displacement (ARD) analysis. The ARD is a tool that uses the present-day lapse rate to estimate the upward migration of the species based on the global warming predicted by the IPCC. The results show that around 80% of the vascular flora, ca. 1,700 species of which up to 400 would be Pantepui endemics, are threatened of extinction. These estimates should be considered preliminary, but the danger is real. Therefore, suitable conservation or mitigation strategies are needed.

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More information

Published date: 1 May 2009

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 445873
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/445873
ISSN: 0165-0009
PURE UUID: 9b99753a-8b6f-4ea5-a0ce-84e3bdfcd0fa
ORCID for Sandra Nogué: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-0093-4252

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 12 Jan 2021 17:33
Last modified: 18 Feb 2021 17:25

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Contributors

Author: Sandra Nogué ORCID iD
Author: Valentí Rull
Author: Teresa Vegas-Vilarrúbia

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