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Global carbon budget 2020

Global carbon budget 2020
Global carbon budget 2020
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ±  0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).
1866-3516
3269-3340
Friedlingstein, Pierre
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O'sullivan, Michael
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Jones, Matthew W.
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Andrew, Robbie M.
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Hauck, Judith
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Yuan, Wenping
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Yue, Xu
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Sitch, Stephen
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Friedlingstein, Pierre, O'sullivan, Michael, Jones, Matthew W., Andrew, Robbie M., Hauck, Judith, Olsen, Are, Peters, Glen P., Peters, Wouter, Pongratz, Julia, Sitch, Stephen, Le Quéré, Corinne, Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Jackson, Robert B., Alin, Simone, Aragão, Luiz E. O. C., Arneth, Almut, Arora, Vivek, Bates, Nicholas R., Becker, Meike, Benoit-cattin, Alice, Bittig, Henry C., Bopp, Laurent, Bultan, Selma, Chandra, Naveen, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Evans, Wiley, Florentie, Liesbeth, Forster, Piers M., Gasser, Thomas, Gehlen, Marion, Gilfillan, Dennis, Gkritzalis, Thanos, Gregor, Luke, Gruber, Nicolas, Harris, Ian, Hartung, Kerstin, Haverd, Vanessa, Houghton, Richard A., Ilyina, Tatiana, Jain, Atul K., Joetzjer, Emilie, Kadono, Koji, Kato, Etsushi, Kitidis, Vassilis, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Liu, Zhu, Lombardozzi, Danica, Marland, Gregg, Metzl, Nicolas, Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, Niwa, Yosuke, O'brien, Kevin, Ono, Tsuneo, Palmer, Paul I., Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Resplandy, Laure, Robertson, Eddy, Rödenbeck, Christian, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Smith, Adam J. P., Sutton, Adrienne J., Tanhua, Toste, Tans, Pieter P., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Van Der Werf, Guido, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wanninkhof, Rik, Watson, Andrew J., Willis, David, Wiltshire, Andrew J., Yuan, Wenping, Yue, Xu and Zaehle, Sönke (2020) Global carbon budget 2020. Earth System Science Data, 12 (4), 3269-3340. (doi:10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ±  0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).

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Accepted/In Press date: 18 November 2020
Published date: 11 December 2020

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 446178
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/446178
ISSN: 1866-3516
PURE UUID: db093b49-6585-42c0-9431-d41f2bb950fb

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Date deposited: 26 Jan 2021 17:31
Last modified: 25 Nov 2021 19:40

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Contributors

Author: Pierre Friedlingstein
Author: Michael O'sullivan
Author: Matthew W. Jones
Author: Robbie M. Andrew
Author: Judith Hauck
Author: Are Olsen
Author: Glen P. Peters
Author: Wouter Peters
Author: Julia Pongratz
Author: Stephen Sitch
Author: Corinne Le Quéré
Author: Josep G. Canadell
Author: Philippe Ciais
Author: Robert B. Jackson
Author: Simone Alin
Author: Luiz E. O. C. Aragão
Author: Almut Arneth
Author: Vivek Arora
Author: Meike Becker
Author: Alice Benoit-cattin
Author: Henry C. Bittig
Author: Laurent Bopp
Author: Selma Bultan
Author: Naveen Chandra
Author: Frédéric Chevallier
Author: Louise P. Chini
Author: Wiley Evans
Author: Liesbeth Florentie
Author: Piers M. Forster
Author: Thomas Gasser
Author: Marion Gehlen
Author: Dennis Gilfillan
Author: Thanos Gkritzalis
Author: Luke Gregor
Author: Nicolas Gruber
Author: Ian Harris
Author: Kerstin Hartung
Author: Vanessa Haverd
Author: Richard A. Houghton
Author: Tatiana Ilyina
Author: Atul K. Jain
Author: Emilie Joetzjer
Author: Koji Kadono
Author: Etsushi Kato
Author: Vassilis Kitidis
Author: Jan Ivar Korsbakken
Author: Peter Landschützer
Author: Nathalie Lefèvre
Author: Andrew Lenton
Author: Sebastian Lienert
Author: Zhu Liu
Author: Danica Lombardozzi
Author: Gregg Marland
Author: Nicolas Metzl
Author: David R. Munro
Author: Julia E. M. S. Nabel
Author: Shin-ichiro Nakaoka
Author: Yosuke Niwa
Author: Kevin O'brien
Author: Tsuneo Ono
Author: Paul I. Palmer
Author: Denis Pierrot
Author: Benjamin Poulter
Author: Laure Resplandy
Author: Eddy Robertson
Author: Christian Rödenbeck
Author: Jörg Schwinger
Author: Roland Séférian
Author: Ingunn Skjelvan
Author: Adam J. P. Smith
Author: Adrienne J. Sutton
Author: Toste Tanhua
Author: Pieter P. Tans
Author: Hanqin Tian
Author: Bronte Tilbrook
Author: Guido Van Der Werf
Author: Nicolas Vuichard
Author: Anthony P. Walker
Author: Rik Wanninkhof
Author: Andrew J. Watson
Author: David Willis
Author: Andrew J. Wiltshire
Author: Wenping Yuan
Author: Xu Yue
Author: Sönke Zaehle

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