The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository
Warning ePrints Soton is experiencing an issue with some file downloads not being available. We are working hard to fix this. Please bear with us.

Probabilistic assessment of port operation downtimes under climate change

Probabilistic assessment of port operation downtimes under climate change
Probabilistic assessment of port operation downtimes under climate change
Disruptions in harbor operations have significant implications for local, regional and global economies due to ports strategic role as part of the supply chain. A probabilistic evaluation of port operations considering the influence of climate change is required in order to secure optimal exploitation during their useful life. Here, we propose a hybrid statistic-dynamical framework combining a weather generator and a metamodel. The stochastic generator is based on weather types to project climate variability on hourly multivariate dependent climate drivers outside ports. The metamodel efficiently transforms hourly sea conditions from the entrance of the harbor towards the inside port adding the advantages of a physical process model. Thousands of hourly synthetic time series based on present climate conditions and future ones were transferred inside the port to perform a probabilistic analysis of port operations. Future forcing conditions were defined adding several sea level rise (SLR) scenarios, sampled from their probability distribution, to the synthetic sea level fluctuation time series. Wave amplification due to non-linear interactions between wave and sea level variations and changes in the reflection coefficients inside the port induced by SLR were modelled. Probabilistic future changes of operation downtimes were quantified considering the uncertainty associated with the historical forcing conditions outside the port and likely SLR scenarios. The methodology was applied to a specific case study on a regional port located in the north coast of Spain, were port operability due to wave agitation was assessed.
0378-3839
12-24
Camus, P.
66625386-9051-4ea8-a0fa-956751534796
Tomás, A.
f753c34d-58d0-4fe4-a9c3-f0ff0cf3cf22
Díaz-hernández, G.
18670cb5-f9ff-43a8-a23b-553b364a9987
Rodríguez, B.
6a849043-f705-445a-9fdb-bdf4cc466589
Izaguirre, C.
537f249d-5c52-4448-ba1e-0ac70629442c
Losada, I.j.
2ea31ffe-966e-40f9-b742-aefae8363ad3
Camus, P.
66625386-9051-4ea8-a0fa-956751534796
Tomás, A.
f753c34d-58d0-4fe4-a9c3-f0ff0cf3cf22
Díaz-hernández, G.
18670cb5-f9ff-43a8-a23b-553b364a9987
Rodríguez, B.
6a849043-f705-445a-9fdb-bdf4cc466589
Izaguirre, C.
537f249d-5c52-4448-ba1e-0ac70629442c
Losada, I.j.
2ea31ffe-966e-40f9-b742-aefae8363ad3

Camus, P., Tomás, A., Díaz-hernández, G., Rodríguez, B., Izaguirre, C. and Losada, I.j. (2019) Probabilistic assessment of port operation downtimes under climate change. Coastal Engineering, 147, 12-24. (doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2019.01.007).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Disruptions in harbor operations have significant implications for local, regional and global economies due to ports strategic role as part of the supply chain. A probabilistic evaluation of port operations considering the influence of climate change is required in order to secure optimal exploitation during their useful life. Here, we propose a hybrid statistic-dynamical framework combining a weather generator and a metamodel. The stochastic generator is based on weather types to project climate variability on hourly multivariate dependent climate drivers outside ports. The metamodel efficiently transforms hourly sea conditions from the entrance of the harbor towards the inside port adding the advantages of a physical process model. Thousands of hourly synthetic time series based on present climate conditions and future ones were transferred inside the port to perform a probabilistic analysis of port operations. Future forcing conditions were defined adding several sea level rise (SLR) scenarios, sampled from their probability distribution, to the synthetic sea level fluctuation time series. Wave amplification due to non-linear interactions between wave and sea level variations and changes in the reflection coefficients inside the port induced by SLR were modelled. Probabilistic future changes of operation downtimes were quantified considering the uncertainty associated with the historical forcing conditions outside the port and likely SLR scenarios. The methodology was applied to a specific case study on a regional port located in the north coast of Spain, were port operability due to wave agitation was assessed.

Text
CENG_3462_edit_report - Accepted Manuscript
Download (1MB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 22 January 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 25 January 2019
Published date: 1 May 2019

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 446644
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/446644
ISSN: 0378-3839
PURE UUID: 55914bf8-9b15-4f98-a5c1-0e0afd83e565

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 17 Feb 2021 17:30
Last modified: 26 Nov 2021 06:58

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: P. Camus
Author: A. Tomás
Author: G. Díaz-hernández
Author: B. Rodríguez
Author: C. Izaguirre
Author: I.j. Losada

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×