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Climate change risk to global port operations

Climate change risk to global port operations
Climate change risk to global port operations
The ports sector is critical to global transport and trade. Climate change may compromise port operations, resulting in an increase in operational shutdowns and subsequent economic losses. Here, we present an analysis of historical global risk across the operations of 2,013 ports worldwide and the impacts under a high-end warming scenario, considering atmospheric and marine hazards, industry established operational thresholds, exposure and vulnerability. Increased coastal flooding and overtopping due to sea level rise, as well as the heat stress impacts of higher temperatures, are the main contributors to amplified risk. Ports located in the Pacific Islands, Caribbean Sea and Indian Ocean appear to be at extremely high risk by 2100, whereas those in the African Mediterranean and the Arabian Peninsula (Persian Gulf and Red Sea) are expected to experience very high risk. Estimating risks at the global scale cannot capture site-level details, but these results provide a benchmark for further research and decision-making.
1758-678X
14-20
Izaguirre, C.
537f249d-5c52-4448-ba1e-0ac70629442c
Losada, I. J.
2ea31ffe-966e-40f9-b742-aefae8363ad3
Camus, P.
66625386-9051-4ea8-a0fa-956751534796
Vigh, J. L.
3db18793-91fe-4363-b7a3-95a8bec68941
Stenek, V.
67c81c87-9a60-4c27-b0d7-f5bff5fa75f9
Izaguirre, C.
537f249d-5c52-4448-ba1e-0ac70629442c
Losada, I. J.
2ea31ffe-966e-40f9-b742-aefae8363ad3
Camus, P.
66625386-9051-4ea8-a0fa-956751534796
Vigh, J. L.
3db18793-91fe-4363-b7a3-95a8bec68941
Stenek, V.
67c81c87-9a60-4c27-b0d7-f5bff5fa75f9

Izaguirre, C., Losada, I. J., Camus, P., Vigh, J. L. and Stenek, V. (2021) Climate change risk to global port operations. Nature Climate Change, 11 (1), 14-20. (doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00937-z).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The ports sector is critical to global transport and trade. Climate change may compromise port operations, resulting in an increase in operational shutdowns and subsequent economic losses. Here, we present an analysis of historical global risk across the operations of 2,013 ports worldwide and the impacts under a high-end warming scenario, considering atmospheric and marine hazards, industry established operational thresholds, exposure and vulnerability. Increased coastal flooding and overtopping due to sea level rise, as well as the heat stress impacts of higher temperatures, are the main contributors to amplified risk. Ports located in the Pacific Islands, Caribbean Sea and Indian Ocean appear to be at extremely high risk by 2100, whereas those in the African Mediterranean and the Arabian Peninsula (Persian Gulf and Red Sea) are expected to experience very high risk. Estimating risks at the global scale cannot capture site-level details, but these results provide a benchmark for further research and decision-making.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 22 August 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 9 November 2020
Published date: 1 January 2021

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 446659
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/446659
ISSN: 1758-678X
PURE UUID: 154dd115-92fc-4490-82db-46dd4580c385

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 17 Feb 2021 17:31
Last modified: 17 Feb 2021 17:31

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Contributors

Author: C. Izaguirre
Author: I. J. Losada
Author: P. Camus
Author: J. L. Vigh
Author: V. Stenek

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