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Lake restoration time of Lake Taibai (China): a case study based on paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling

Lake restoration time of Lake Taibai (China): a case study based on paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling
Lake restoration time of Lake Taibai (China): a case study based on paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling
Reducing excessive external nutrient loading is in principle the first adaptive management against eutrophication, whereas little is known about the recovery time of such intervention, especially in the context of global warming. Here, we use an ensemble approach of paleolimnological records and modeling PCLake to evaluate the recovery time of Lake Taibai, China under diverse combinations of nutrient reduction and climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated for seven sensitive parameters and further validated using the total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in sediment cores reconstructed using a diatom-TP transfer function. The paleolimnological records show that species indicative of eutrophic conditions and the diatom-inferred TP (DI-TP) were low before the 1980s and slightly increased thereafter. The calibrated model not only captures the dynamics of TP concentrations but also performs well in identifying the regime shift between the 2 alternative stable states of the lake: macrophyte-dominated (clear) and algae-dominated (turbid) states. The scenarios results suggest that lake restoration (from turbid to clear state) would take 10–20 years with an annual nutrient loading (both N and P) reduction rate of 15–25% from 2019. Meanwhile, global warming would impede the effectiveness of nutrient reduction by not only increasing the restoration time but also decreasing the vegetation restoration level (as indicated by vegetation dry weight in lake water) and critical nutrient loading for re-oligotrophication. Our results imply that in the long run, nutrient loading reduction measurement for sustainable lake restoration should be adjusted following temperature changes. The present study highlights the feasibility and relevance of a novel methodology using paleolimnological records for model calibration and projections. The modeling approach presented here may provide a better understanding and critical implications of the long-term dynamics and future restoration of Lake Taibai and other similar shallow lake ecosystems.
Climate change, Lake Taibai, Lake eutrophication, PCLake, Paleolimnology, Regime shift
0921-2728
1-14
Qin, Bo
559777aa-ec28-4283-a043-19d976a6d078
Kong, Xiangzhen
07138ba3-662c-496d-bdd5-c493b55dff14
Wang, Rong
266b2e44-43b0-4007-8106-dfb7f299f3d8
Zhao, Yanjie
84baf146-1a1f-46a7-9c03-66e5dfb68401
Yang, Xiangdong
7ecb5c8e-22cb-4f65-829d-8b3442dc6529
Qin, Bo
559777aa-ec28-4283-a043-19d976a6d078
Kong, Xiangzhen
07138ba3-662c-496d-bdd5-c493b55dff14
Wang, Rong
266b2e44-43b0-4007-8106-dfb7f299f3d8
Zhao, Yanjie
84baf146-1a1f-46a7-9c03-66e5dfb68401
Yang, Xiangdong
7ecb5c8e-22cb-4f65-829d-8b3442dc6529

Qin, Bo, Kong, Xiangzhen, Wang, Rong, Zhao, Yanjie and Yang, Xiangdong (2021) Lake restoration time of Lake Taibai (China): a case study based on paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling. Journal of Paleolimnology, 1-14. (doi:10.1007/s10933-020-00165-7).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Reducing excessive external nutrient loading is in principle the first adaptive management against eutrophication, whereas little is known about the recovery time of such intervention, especially in the context of global warming. Here, we use an ensemble approach of paleolimnological records and modeling PCLake to evaluate the recovery time of Lake Taibai, China under diverse combinations of nutrient reduction and climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated for seven sensitive parameters and further validated using the total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in sediment cores reconstructed using a diatom-TP transfer function. The paleolimnological records show that species indicative of eutrophic conditions and the diatom-inferred TP (DI-TP) were low before the 1980s and slightly increased thereafter. The calibrated model not only captures the dynamics of TP concentrations but also performs well in identifying the regime shift between the 2 alternative stable states of the lake: macrophyte-dominated (clear) and algae-dominated (turbid) states. The scenarios results suggest that lake restoration (from turbid to clear state) would take 10–20 years with an annual nutrient loading (both N and P) reduction rate of 15–25% from 2019. Meanwhile, global warming would impede the effectiveness of nutrient reduction by not only increasing the restoration time but also decreasing the vegetation restoration level (as indicated by vegetation dry weight in lake water) and critical nutrient loading for re-oligotrophication. Our results imply that in the long run, nutrient loading reduction measurement for sustainable lake restoration should be adjusted following temperature changes. The present study highlights the feasibility and relevance of a novel methodology using paleolimnological records for model calibration and projections. The modeling approach presented here may provide a better understanding and critical implications of the long-term dynamics and future restoration of Lake Taibai and other similar shallow lake ecosystems.

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Accepted/In Press date: 17 November 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 7 January 2021
Published date: 7 January 2021
Keywords: Climate change, Lake Taibai, Lake eutrophication, PCLake, Paleolimnology, Regime shift

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 446671
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/446671
ISSN: 0921-2728
PURE UUID: ef4a2c76-4dc8-43ba-a033-a05352f74ab5
ORCID for Yanjie Zhao: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9307-8138

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 17 Feb 2021 17:33
Last modified: 26 Nov 2021 02:32

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Contributors

Author: Bo Qin
Author: Xiangzhen Kong
Author: Rong Wang
Author: Yanjie Zhao ORCID iD
Author: Xiangdong Yang

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