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Optimal testing policies for diagnosing patients with intermediary probability of disease

Optimal testing policies for diagnosing patients with intermediary probability of disease
Optimal testing policies for diagnosing patients with intermediary probability of disease

This paper proposes a stochastic shortest path approach to find an optimal sequence of tests to confirm or discard a disease, for any prescribed optimality criterion. The idea is to select the best sequence in which to apply a series of available tests, with a view at reaching a diagnosis with minimum expenditure of resources. The proposed approach derives an optimal policy whereby the decision maker is provided with a test strategy for each a priori probability of disease, aiming to reach posterior probabilities that warrant either immediate treatment or a not-ill diagnosis.

Diagnosis, Healthcare problems, Stochastic shortest path
0933-3657
89-97
Arruda, Edilson F.
8eb3bd83-e883-4bf3-bfbc-7887c5daa911
Pereira, Basílio B.
28f95dc5-50ba-4759-b544-4124abf7e0ed
Thiers, Clarissa A.
07d89724-16af-4475-8d9f-323aff9f5bdf
Tura, Bernardo R.
6c39b073-3a63-4e4e-a976-3b2532ff39e0
Arruda, Edilson F.
8eb3bd83-e883-4bf3-bfbc-7887c5daa911
Pereira, Basílio B.
28f95dc5-50ba-4759-b544-4124abf7e0ed
Thiers, Clarissa A.
07d89724-16af-4475-8d9f-323aff9f5bdf
Tura, Bernardo R.
6c39b073-3a63-4e4e-a976-3b2532ff39e0

Arruda, Edilson F., Pereira, Basílio B., Thiers, Clarissa A. and Tura, Bernardo R. (2019) Optimal testing policies for diagnosing patients with intermediary probability of disease. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, 97, 89-97. (doi:10.1016/j.artmed.2018.11.005).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper proposes a stochastic shortest path approach to find an optimal sequence of tests to confirm or discard a disease, for any prescribed optimality criterion. The idea is to select the best sequence in which to apply a series of available tests, with a view at reaching a diagnosis with minimum expenditure of resources. The proposed approach derives an optimal policy whereby the decision maker is provided with a test strategy for each a priori probability of disease, aiming to reach posterior probabilities that warrant either immediate treatment or a not-ill diagnosis.

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More information

Published date: June 2019
Keywords: Diagnosis, Healthcare problems, Stochastic shortest path

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 447655
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/447655
ISSN: 0933-3657
PURE UUID: 44cddbfb-ce41-4db2-9b9c-4aeeac3f381e
ORCID for Edilson F. Arruda: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9835-352X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 17 Mar 2021 17:39
Last modified: 13 Aug 2022 02:05

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Contributors

Author: Edilson F. Arruda ORCID iD
Author: Basílio B. Pereira
Author: Clarissa A. Thiers
Author: Bernardo R. Tura

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