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Modelling migration: Decisions, processes and outcomes

Modelling migration: Decisions, processes and outcomes
Modelling migration: Decisions, processes and outcomes
Human migration is uncertain and complex, and some of its distinct features, such as migration routes, can emerge and change very rapidly. Agency of various actors is one key reason for why migration eludes attempts at its theoretical description, explanation and prediction. To address the complexity challenges through simulation models, which would coherently link micro-level decisions with macro-level processes, a coherent model design and construction process is needed. Here, we present such a process alongside its five building blocks: an agent-based simulation of migration route formation, resembling the recent
asylum migration to Europe; an evaluation framework for migration data; psychological experiments eliciting decisions under uncertainty; the choice of a programming language and modelling formalisms; and statistical analysis with Bayesian meta-modelling based on Gaussian Process assumptions and experimental design principles. This process allows to identify knowledge advancements that can be achieved through modelling, and to elucidate the remaining knowledge gaps.
IEEE
Bijak, Jakub
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Higham, Philip
4093b28f-7d58-4d18-89d4-021792e418e7
Hilton, Jason
da31e515-1e34-4e9f-846d-633176bb3931
Hinsch, Martin
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Nurse, Sarah
1dc41320-0dd0-4eed-99ea-7ca7dae9f734
Prike, Toby
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Reinhardt, Oliver
8137d512-1d8e-45ef-9346-8a117ebdfd4b
Smith, Peter W.F.
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Uhrmacher, Adelinde M.
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Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Higham, Philip
4093b28f-7d58-4d18-89d4-021792e418e7
Hilton, Jason
da31e515-1e34-4e9f-846d-633176bb3931
Hinsch, Martin
660b9bb4-148f-4692-9014-8db1d751ae57
Nurse, Sarah
1dc41320-0dd0-4eed-99ea-7ca7dae9f734
Prike, Toby
3e9dc48b-6bc2-4840-8466-b31f16182820
Reinhardt, Oliver
8137d512-1d8e-45ef-9346-8a117ebdfd4b
Smith, Peter W.F.
961a01a3-bf4c-43ca-9599-5be4fd5d3940
Uhrmacher, Adelinde M.
4fa04994-ea2b-4a1a-bf1e-5e7897359d28

Bijak, Jakub, Higham, Philip, Hilton, Jason, Hinsch, Martin, Nurse, Sarah, Prike, Toby, Reinhardt, Oliver, Smith, Peter W.F. and Uhrmacher, Adelinde M. (2021) Modelling migration: Decisions, processes and outcomes. In 2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC). IEEE.. (doi:10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384072).

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

Human migration is uncertain and complex, and some of its distinct features, such as migration routes, can emerge and change very rapidly. Agency of various actors is one key reason for why migration eludes attempts at its theoretical description, explanation and prediction. To address the complexity challenges through simulation models, which would coherently link micro-level decisions with macro-level processes, a coherent model design and construction process is needed. Here, we present such a process alongside its five building blocks: an agent-based simulation of migration route formation, resembling the recent
asylum migration to Europe; an evaluation framework for migration data; psychological experiments eliciting decisions under uncertainty; the choice of a programming language and modelling formalisms; and statistical analysis with Bayesian meta-modelling based on Gaussian Process assumptions and experimental design principles. This process allows to identify knowledge advancements that can be achieved through modelling, and to elucidate the remaining knowledge gaps.

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Accepted/In Press date: 13 June 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 29 March 2021
Published date: 2021

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 448017
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/448017
PURE UUID: 8d0baf9f-6f15-41b9-9d7c-4cdd1d1b49dc
ORCID for Jakub Bijak: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2563-5040
ORCID for Jason Hilton: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9473-757X
ORCID for Martin Hinsch: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7059-7266
ORCID for Toby Prike: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-7602-4947
ORCID for Peter W.F. Smith: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-4423-5410

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 30 Mar 2021 16:34
Last modified: 13 Apr 2021 02:01

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Contributors

Author: Jakub Bijak ORCID iD
Author: Philip Higham
Author: Jason Hilton ORCID iD
Author: Martin Hinsch ORCID iD
Author: Sarah Nurse
Author: Toby Prike ORCID iD
Author: Oliver Reinhardt
Author: Adelinde M. Uhrmacher

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