Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of COVID-19
Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of COVID-19
This paper examines the recent declines in period fertility in the constituent countries of the UK during the past decade and speculates the mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic could influence childbearing in the UK. Having considered potential forces acting on individuals at different ages and family size, we might expect that the COVID-19 pandemic will depress fertility, particularly among younger people. Because fertility at all ages was declining before the onset of the pandemic, this could mean a further decline in period fertility to historically low levels for the UK. We put forward a number of scenarios to examine the possible impact of the pandemic on numbers of live births. Our projections show that for three scenarios out of four fertility is expected to decline over the next three years leading to significantly fewer births annually compared to the pre-pandemic period.
COVID-19; pandemic; fertility; baby boom; baby bust.
ESRC Centre for Population Change
Berrington, Ann
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Ellison, Joanne
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Kuang, Bernice
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Vasireddy, Sindhu
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Kulu, Hill
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26 March 2021
Berrington, Ann
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Ellison, Joanne
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Kuang, Bernice
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Vasireddy, Sindhu
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Kulu, Hill
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Berrington, Ann, Ellison, Joanne, Kuang, Bernice, Vasireddy, Sindhu and Kulu, Hill
(2021)
Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of COVID-19
(CPC Working Paper, 95)
ESRC Centre for Population Change
45pp.
Record type:
Monograph
(Working Paper)
Abstract
This paper examines the recent declines in period fertility in the constituent countries of the UK during the past decade and speculates the mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic could influence childbearing in the UK. Having considered potential forces acting on individuals at different ages and family size, we might expect that the COVID-19 pandemic will depress fertility, particularly among younger people. Because fertility at all ages was declining before the onset of the pandemic, this could mean a further decline in period fertility to historically low levels for the UK. We put forward a number of scenarios to examine the possible impact of the pandemic on numbers of live births. Our projections show that for three scenarios out of four fertility is expected to decline over the next three years leading to significantly fewer births annually compared to the pre-pandemic period.
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WP_95_Recent_trends_in_UK_fertility
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Published date: 26 March 2021
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemic; fertility; baby boom; baby bust.
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 448062
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/448062
PURE UUID: 98e9906b-f853-4401-8714-e27bb73077b5
Catalogue record
Date deposited: 01 Apr 2021 15:41
Last modified: 14 Dec 2024 03:03
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Contributors
Author:
Bernice Kuang
Author:
Sindhu Vasireddy
Author:
Hill Kulu
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