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Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of COVID-19

Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of COVID-19
Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of COVID-19
This paper examines the recent declines in period fertility in the constituent countries of the UK during the past decade and speculates the mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic could influence childbearing in the UK. Having considered potential forces acting on individuals at different ages and family size, we might expect that the COVID-19 pandemic will depress fertility, particularly among younger people. Because fertility at all ages was declining before the onset of the pandemic, this could mean a further decline in period fertility to historically low levels for the UK. We put forward a number of scenarios to examine the possible impact of the pandemic on numbers of live births. Our projections show that for three scenarios out of four fertility is expected to decline over the next three years leading to significantly fewer births annually compared to the pre-pandemic period.
COVID-19; pandemic; fertility; baby boom; baby bust.
95
ESRC Centre for Population Change
Berrington, Ann
bd0fc093-310d-4236-8126-ca0c7eb9ddde
Ellison, Joanne
d1560ac9-2c6c-49e8-b5c4-aa2258624e97
Kuang, Bernice
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Vasireddy, Sindhu
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Kulu, Hill
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Berrington, Ann
bd0fc093-310d-4236-8126-ca0c7eb9ddde
Ellison, Joanne
d1560ac9-2c6c-49e8-b5c4-aa2258624e97
Kuang, Bernice
0d9a40c9-11d3-463e-8b1a-ce0c9880485d
Vasireddy, Sindhu
5e4d940c-dc89-4d43-b739-3b72928d26f9
Kulu, Hill
c0aa7014-c995-4bc1-878c-9ff326e4efde

Berrington, Ann, Ellison, Joanne, Kuang, Bernice, Vasireddy, Sindhu and Kulu, Hill (2021) Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of COVID-19 (CPC Working Paper, 95) ESRC Centre for Population Change 45pp.

Record type: Monograph (Working Paper)

Abstract

This paper examines the recent declines in period fertility in the constituent countries of the UK during the past decade and speculates the mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic could influence childbearing in the UK. Having considered potential forces acting on individuals at different ages and family size, we might expect that the COVID-19 pandemic will depress fertility, particularly among younger people. Because fertility at all ages was declining before the onset of the pandemic, this could mean a further decline in period fertility to historically low levels for the UK. We put forward a number of scenarios to examine the possible impact of the pandemic on numbers of live births. Our projections show that for three scenarios out of four fertility is expected to decline over the next three years leading to significantly fewer births annually compared to the pre-pandemic period.

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More information

Published date: 26 March 2021
Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; fertility; baby boom; baby bust.

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 448062
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/448062
PURE UUID: 98e9906b-f853-4401-8714-e27bb73077b5
ORCID for Ann Berrington: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1683-6668
ORCID for Joanne Ellison: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-6973-8797

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 01 Apr 2021 15:41
Last modified: 20 Jul 2024 02:04

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Contributors

Author: Ann Berrington ORCID iD
Author: Joanne Ellison ORCID iD
Author: Bernice Kuang
Author: Sindhu Vasireddy
Author: Hill Kulu

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