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An exploratory analysis of the trend in the demand for the London bike-sharing system: From London Olympics to Covid-19 pandemic

An exploratory analysis of the trend in the demand for the London bike-sharing system: From London Olympics to Covid-19 pandemic
An exploratory analysis of the trend in the demand for the London bike-sharing system: From London Olympics to Covid-19 pandemic

It is important to understand variations in the demand for bike-sharing systems to help guide policy aimed at promoting bike-sharing schemes. We conducted an exploratory analysis of the trend in the daily number of cycle hires in London (UK) from January 2012 to June 2020. In particular, we investigated the association between unemployment rate and the trend in the demand for the London cycle hire system. Other explanatory variables included in our analysis were weather-related (e.g., rainfall) and temporal factors (e.g., types of days) as well as the number of docking stations. The study employed a generalised negative binomial model in which the over-dispersion parameter varied across the sample. Using such a model for the first time in investigating the trend in bike-sharing systems, allowed us to understand how uncertainty around the demand varies in the system. We found that unemployment rate, being negatively associated with cycle hires, played an important role in the demand for the London bike-sharing system. Unlike temperature and the number of docking stations, rainfall, humidity and wind had a negative impact on cycle hires. Finally, our analysis revealed significant variations in the demand across various types of days (e.g. lockdown and weekdays).

Bike-sharing systems, Covid-19, Cycle hire, Cycling, Trend, Unemployment rate
2210-6707
Chibwe, Joseph
2b8ad391-715e-4c81-870b-06d51d81e89e
Heydari, Shahram
0d12a583-a4e8-4888-9e51-a50d312be1e9
Faghih Imani, Ahmadreza
5d970c19-0f6c-4f1f-adad-bfdc5ae39e0a
Scurtu, Aneta
34af6d38-9abc-45b9-8dc6-bd200410da70
Chibwe, Joseph
2b8ad391-715e-4c81-870b-06d51d81e89e
Heydari, Shahram
0d12a583-a4e8-4888-9e51-a50d312be1e9
Faghih Imani, Ahmadreza
5d970c19-0f6c-4f1f-adad-bfdc5ae39e0a
Scurtu, Aneta
34af6d38-9abc-45b9-8dc6-bd200410da70

Chibwe, Joseph, Heydari, Shahram, Faghih Imani, Ahmadreza and Scurtu, Aneta (2021) An exploratory analysis of the trend in the demand for the London bike-sharing system: From London Olympics to Covid-19 pandemic. Sustainable Cities and Society, 69, [102871]. (doi:10.1016/j.scs.2021.102871).

Record type: Article

Abstract

It is important to understand variations in the demand for bike-sharing systems to help guide policy aimed at promoting bike-sharing schemes. We conducted an exploratory analysis of the trend in the daily number of cycle hires in London (UK) from January 2012 to June 2020. In particular, we investigated the association between unemployment rate and the trend in the demand for the London cycle hire system. Other explanatory variables included in our analysis were weather-related (e.g., rainfall) and temporal factors (e.g., types of days) as well as the number of docking stations. The study employed a generalised negative binomial model in which the over-dispersion parameter varied across the sample. Using such a model for the first time in investigating the trend in bike-sharing systems, allowed us to understand how uncertainty around the demand varies in the system. We found that unemployment rate, being negatively associated with cycle hires, played an important role in the demand for the London bike-sharing system. Unlike temperature and the number of docking stations, rainfall, humidity and wind had a negative impact on cycle hires. Finally, our analysis revealed significant variations in the demand across various types of days (e.g. lockdown and weekdays).

Text
Bicycle Hire Trend Analysis _ S Heydari - Accepted Manuscript
Restricted to Repository staff only until 22 March 2022.
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 19 March 2021
e-pub ahead of print date: 22 March 2021
Published date: 1 June 2021
Keywords: Bike-sharing systems, Covid-19, Cycle hire, Cycling, Trend, Unemployment rate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 448307
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/448307
ISSN: 2210-6707
PURE UUID: 0ddbc0f7-09cf-4cb6-b50d-be551ab8c921

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 19 Apr 2021 16:37
Last modified: 25 Nov 2021 20:43

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Contributors

Author: Joseph Chibwe
Author: Shahram Heydari
Author: Ahmadreza Faghih Imani
Author: Aneta Scurtu

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