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Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities

Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities
Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed substantial challenges to the formulation of preventive interventions, particularly since the effects of physical distancing measures and upcoming vaccines on reducing susceptible social contacts and eventually halting transmission remain unclear. Here, using anonymized mobile geolocation data in China, we devise a mobility-associated social contact index to quantify the impact of both physical distancing and vaccination measures in a unified way. Building on this index, our epidemiological model reveals that vaccination combined with physical distancing can contain resurgences without relying on stay-at-home restrictions, whereas a gradual vaccination process alone cannot achieve this. Further, for cities with medium population density, vaccination can reduce the duration of physical distancing by 36% to 78%, whereas for cities with high population density, infection numbers can be well-controlled through moderate physical distancing. These findings improve our understanding of the joint effects of vaccination and physical distancing with respect to a city's population density and social contact patterns.

2397-3374
695-705
Huang, Bo
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Wang, Jionghua
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Cai, Jixuan
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Yao, Shiqi
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Chan, Paul Kay Sheung
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Tam, Tony Hong-Wing
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Hong, Ying-Yi
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Ruktanonchai, Corrine W
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Carioli, Alessandra
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Floyd, Jessica R
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Ruktanonchai, Nick W
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Yang, Weizhong
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Li, Zhongjie
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Tatem, Andrew J
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Lai, Shengjie
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Huang, Bo
87cc8701-3968-4840-8e85-c9604aa14e1b
Wang, Jionghua
b2a96e62-a90c-443c-92bb-4c7f208c422d
Cai, Jixuan
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Yao, Shiqi
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Chan, Paul Kay Sheung
30263d03-fd67-4fe9-8415-1ec46962fcad
Tam, Tony Hong-Wing
57da5e1a-e0cc-49c0-ab75-6c5afe602105
Hong, Ying-Yi
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Ruktanonchai, Corrine W
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Carioli, Alessandra
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Floyd, Jessica R
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Ruktanonchai, Nick W
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Yang, Weizhong
65d18fbc-d752-42a7-ac38-01534ceda15c
Li, Zhongjie
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Tatem, Andrew J
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Lai, Shengjie
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Huang, Bo, Wang, Jionghua, Cai, Jixuan, Yao, Shiqi, Chan, Paul Kay Sheung, Tam, Tony Hong-Wing, Hong, Ying-Yi, Ruktanonchai, Corrine W, Carioli, Alessandra, Floyd, Jessica R, Ruktanonchai, Nick W, Yang, Weizhong, Li, Zhongjie, Tatem, Andrew J and Lai, Shengjie (2021) Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities. Nature Human Behaviour, 5 (6), 695-705. (doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01063-2).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed substantial challenges to the formulation of preventive interventions, particularly since the effects of physical distancing measures and upcoming vaccines on reducing susceptible social contacts and eventually halting transmission remain unclear. Here, using anonymized mobile geolocation data in China, we devise a mobility-associated social contact index to quantify the impact of both physical distancing and vaccination measures in a unified way. Building on this index, our epidemiological model reveals that vaccination combined with physical distancing can contain resurgences without relying on stay-at-home restrictions, whereas a gradual vaccination process alone cannot achieve this. Further, for cities with medium population density, vaccination can reduce the duration of physical distancing by 36% to 78%, whereas for cities with high population density, infection numbers can be well-controlled through moderate physical distancing. These findings improve our understanding of the joint effects of vaccination and physical distancing with respect to a city's population density and social contact patterns.

Text
Manuscript_NHB_Jan27_2021_Accepted - Accepted Manuscript
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Submitted date: 15 November 2020
Accepted/In Press date: 27 January 2021
e-pub ahead of print date: 18 February 2021
Published date: June 2021
Additional Information: Funding Information: B.H. was supported by the Hong Kong Research Grants Council (CRF C4139-20G and AoE/E-603/18), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA19090108) and the National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFC1510400 and 2017YFB0503605). A.J.T. was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-002697, OPP1106427, OPP1032350, OPP1134076 and OPP1094793), the Clinton Health Access Initiative, the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Wellcome Trust (106866/Z/15/Z and 204613/Z/16/Z), and the European Union H2020 (MOOD 874850). S.L. was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-024911 and OPP1134076), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81773498), the National Science and Technology Major Project of China (2016ZX10004222-009) and the EU H2020 (MOOD 874850). N.W.R. was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1170969) and the Vodafone Institute. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, and decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited part of Springer Nature. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 448452
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/448452
DOI: doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01063-2
ISSN: 2397-3374
PURE UUID: 68fc3e17-8b63-4ca1-b2ab-a79468cbe5e3
ORCID for Andrew J Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X
ORCID for Shengjie Lai: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 22 Apr 2021 16:46
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 06:22

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Contributors

Author: Bo Huang
Author: Jionghua Wang
Author: Jixuan Cai
Author: Shiqi Yao
Author: Paul Kay Sheung Chan
Author: Tony Hong-Wing Tam
Author: Ying-Yi Hong
Author: Corrine W Ruktanonchai
Author: Alessandra Carioli
Author: Jessica R Floyd
Author: Nick W Ruktanonchai
Author: Weizhong Yang
Author: Zhongjie Li
Author: Andrew J Tatem ORCID iD
Author: Shengjie Lai ORCID iD

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