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Forecasting the SARS COVID-19 pandemic and critical care resources threshold in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: population analysis of aggregate data

Forecasting the SARS COVID-19 pandemic and critical care resources threshold in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: population analysis of aggregate data
Forecasting the SARS COVID-19 pandemic and critical care resources threshold in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: population analysis of aggregate data
Objective
To generate cross-national forecasts of COVID-19 trajectories and quantify the associated impact on essential critical care resources for disease management in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

Design
Population-level aggregate analysis.

Setting
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.

Methods
We applied an extended time-dependent SEICRD compartmental model to predict the flow of people between six states, susceptible–exposed–infected–critical–recovery–death, accounting for community mitigation strategies and the latent period between exposure and infected and contagious states. Then, we used the WHO Adaptt Surge Planning Tool to predict intensive care unit (ICU) and human resources capacity based on predicted daily active and cumulative infections from the SEICRD model.

Main outcome measures
Predicted COVID-19 infections, deaths, and ICU and human resources capacity for disease management.

Results
COVID-19 infections vary daily from 498 per million in Bahrain to over 300 per million in UAE and Qatar, to 9 per million in Saudi Arabia. The cumulative number of deaths varies from 302 per million in Oman to 89 in Qatar. UAE attained its first peak as early as 21 April 2020, whereas Oman had its peak on 29 August 2020. In absolute terms, Saudi Arabia is predicted to have the highest COVID-19 mortality burden, followed by UAE and Oman. The predicted maximum number of COVID-19-infected patients in need of oxygen therapy during the peak of emergency admissions varies between 690 in Bahrain, 1440 in Oman and over 10 000 in Saudi Arabia.

Conclusion
Although most GCC countries have managed to flatten the epidemiological curve by August 2020, trends since November 2020 show potential increase in new infections. The pandemic is predicted to recede by August 2021, provided the existing infection control measures continue effectively and consistently across all countries. Current health infrastructure including the provision of ICUs and nursing staff seem adequate, but health systems should keep ICUs ready to manage critically ill patients.
Bahrain, COVID-19, Forecast, Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) resources, Kuwait, Mathematical modeling, Oman, Pandemic, Qatar, Sultanate of Oman, United Arab Emirates
2044-6055
1-9
Al Aamri, Amira K
861b9bb1-cb2d-4022-938b-a8dd742682ef
Al-Harrasi, Ayaman A
ccfade20-0bad-407c-86f9-cd83025c06eb
AAl-Abdulsalam, Abdurahman K
7bcac344-c032-4ab8-94b0-06ac57382762
Al-Maniri, Abdullah
03f637a5-a625-4dbd-b6d6-dc74b066b7a8
Padmadas, Sabu S
64b6ab89-152b-48a3-838b-e9167964b508
Al Aamri, Amira K
861b9bb1-cb2d-4022-938b-a8dd742682ef
Al-Harrasi, Ayaman A
ccfade20-0bad-407c-86f9-cd83025c06eb
AAl-Abdulsalam, Abdurahman K
7bcac344-c032-4ab8-94b0-06ac57382762
Al-Maniri, Abdullah
03f637a5-a625-4dbd-b6d6-dc74b066b7a8
Padmadas, Sabu S
64b6ab89-152b-48a3-838b-e9167964b508

Al Aamri, Amira K, Al-Harrasi, Ayaman A, AAl-Abdulsalam, Abdurahman K, Al-Maniri, Abdullah and Padmadas, Sabu S (2021) Forecasting the SARS COVID-19 pandemic and critical care resources threshold in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: population analysis of aggregate data. BMJ Open, 11 (5), 1-9, [e044102]. (doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044102).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Objective
To generate cross-national forecasts of COVID-19 trajectories and quantify the associated impact on essential critical care resources for disease management in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

Design
Population-level aggregate analysis.

Setting
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.

Methods
We applied an extended time-dependent SEICRD compartmental model to predict the flow of people between six states, susceptible–exposed–infected–critical–recovery–death, accounting for community mitigation strategies and the latent period between exposure and infected and contagious states. Then, we used the WHO Adaptt Surge Planning Tool to predict intensive care unit (ICU) and human resources capacity based on predicted daily active and cumulative infections from the SEICRD model.

Main outcome measures
Predicted COVID-19 infections, deaths, and ICU and human resources capacity for disease management.

Results
COVID-19 infections vary daily from 498 per million in Bahrain to over 300 per million in UAE and Qatar, to 9 per million in Saudi Arabia. The cumulative number of deaths varies from 302 per million in Oman to 89 in Qatar. UAE attained its first peak as early as 21 April 2020, whereas Oman had its peak on 29 August 2020. In absolute terms, Saudi Arabia is predicted to have the highest COVID-19 mortality burden, followed by UAE and Oman. The predicted maximum number of COVID-19-infected patients in need of oxygen therapy during the peak of emergency admissions varies between 690 in Bahrain, 1440 in Oman and over 10 000 in Saudi Arabia.

Conclusion
Although most GCC countries have managed to flatten the epidemiological curve by August 2020, trends since November 2020 show potential increase in new infections. The pandemic is predicted to recede by August 2021, provided the existing infection control measures continue effectively and consistently across all countries. Current health infrastructure including the provision of ICUs and nursing staff seem adequate, but health systems should keep ICUs ready to manage critically ill patients.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 23 April 2021
e-pub ahead of print date: 11 May 2021
Published date: 11 May 2021
Additional Information: Funding Information: Funding The study received funding from the Research Council, Sultanate of Oman (reference: TRC/CRP/MoHE/COVID-19/20/04). Publisher Copyright: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.
Keywords: Bahrain, COVID-19, Forecast, Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) resources, Kuwait, Mathematical modeling, Oman, Pandemic, Qatar, Sultanate of Oman, United Arab Emirates

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 449301
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/449301
ISSN: 2044-6055
PURE UUID: fa5eae6b-45ce-49b0-b509-6ee4e605a755
ORCID for Sabu S Padmadas: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-6538-9374

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 21 May 2021 16:34
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 02:57

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Contributors

Author: Amira K Al Aamri
Author: Ayaman A Al-Harrasi
Author: Abdurahman K AAl-Abdulsalam
Author: Abdullah Al-Maniri
Author: Sabu S Padmadas ORCID iD

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