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Future intensification of extreme Aleutian Low events and their climate impacts

Future intensification of extreme Aleutian Low events and their climate impacts
Future intensification of extreme Aleutian Low events and their climate impacts
Sea level pressure extreme events have considerable effects on regional and global climatic and oceanic conditions. In the North Pacific, the Aleutian Low (AL) extreme deepenings have been linked to major marine abrupt changes and extreme weather patterns, leading to serious implications on environmental and socio-economic conditions. However, there is limited information on the future evolution of the AL extremes and their effects on atmosphere-ocean interaction. Here, we use a large ensemble from the Community Earth System Model to examine the development of the AL extreme events in historical runs and future simulations under the RCP8.5 scenario. We estimate dynamical proxies to quantify the frequency and persistence of these extremes and further examine their relationship with net heat flux through wavelet coherence. Our results reveal an intensification of the AL extreme events under the RCP8.5 future scenario. An increasing trend towards the positive phase of the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern, one of the most influential climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, is also presented. The strengthened future AL extremes further increase the variability on net heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, the most significant heat and energy flux area in the North Pacific. The increasing intensity and frequency of occurrence of AL extreme events may potentially cause irreversible changes in fisheries, ecosystems and weather of the Pacific region.
Giamalaki, Aikaterini
5e775077-5afb-4ed0-82ad-346af4815d4f
Beaulieu, Claudie
28d711f1-59db-48d5-bd5c-eb04ae055dbc
Henson, Stephanie
d6532e17-a65b-4d7b-9ee3-755ecb565c19
Martin, Adrian
9d0d480d-9b3c-44c2-aafe-bb980ed98a6d
Kassem, Hachem
658efa7a-a02c-4b29-9d07-5d57e95a4b51
Faranda, Davide
db78a1c6-b6f5-4d1d-bac2-f425b5388265
Giamalaki, Aikaterini
5e775077-5afb-4ed0-82ad-346af4815d4f
Beaulieu, Claudie
28d711f1-59db-48d5-bd5c-eb04ae055dbc
Henson, Stephanie
d6532e17-a65b-4d7b-9ee3-755ecb565c19
Martin, Adrian
9d0d480d-9b3c-44c2-aafe-bb980ed98a6d
Kassem, Hachem
658efa7a-a02c-4b29-9d07-5d57e95a4b51
Faranda, Davide
db78a1c6-b6f5-4d1d-bac2-f425b5388265

Giamalaki, Aikaterini, Beaulieu, Claudie, Henson, Stephanie, Martin, Adrian, Kassem, Hachem and Faranda, Davide (2020) Future intensification of extreme Aleutian Low events and their climate impacts. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2020, New Orleans, LA, USA, New Orleans, United States. 01 - 17 Dec 2020.

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Other)

Abstract

Sea level pressure extreme events have considerable effects on regional and global climatic and oceanic conditions. In the North Pacific, the Aleutian Low (AL) extreme deepenings have been linked to major marine abrupt changes and extreme weather patterns, leading to serious implications on environmental and socio-economic conditions. However, there is limited information on the future evolution of the AL extremes and their effects on atmosphere-ocean interaction. Here, we use a large ensemble from the Community Earth System Model to examine the development of the AL extreme events in historical runs and future simulations under the RCP8.5 scenario. We estimate dynamical proxies to quantify the frequency and persistence of these extremes and further examine their relationship with net heat flux through wavelet coherence. Our results reveal an intensification of the AL extreme events under the RCP8.5 future scenario. An increasing trend towards the positive phase of the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern, one of the most influential climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, is also presented. The strengthened future AL extremes further increase the variability on net heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, the most significant heat and energy flux area in the North Pacific. The increasing intensity and frequency of occurrence of AL extreme events may potentially cause irreversible changes in fisheries, ecosystems and weather of the Pacific region.

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More information

Published date: 16 December 2020
Venue - Dates: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2020, New Orleans, LA, USA, New Orleans, United States, 2020-12-01 - 2020-12-17

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 449768
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/449768
PURE UUID: 70c2c434-d554-443b-a279-f723cc49332b
ORCID for Hachem Kassem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5936-6037

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 16 Jun 2021 16:30
Last modified: 17 Jun 2021 01:44

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Contributors

Author: Aikaterini Giamalaki
Author: Claudie Beaulieu
Author: Adrian Martin
Author: Hachem Kassem ORCID iD
Author: Davide Faranda

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