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Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns

Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns
Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns
In coastal regions, floods can arise through a combination of multiple drivers, including direct surface run- off, river discharge, storm surge and waves. In this study, we analyse compound flood potential in Europe caused by these four main flooding sources using state-of-the-art databases with homogenous forcing (i.e., ERA5). First, we perform an analysis to assess the sensitivity of the compound flooding potential to several factors: 1) sampling method; 2) time window to select the concurrent event of the conditioned driver; 3) dependence metrics; 4) wave-driven sea level definition. We observe higher correlation coefficients using annual maxima than peaks over threshold. Regarding the other factors, our results show similar spatial distributions of the compound flooding potential. Second, the dependence between the pairs of drivers using the Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient and the joint occurrence are synthesized for coherent patterns of compound flooding potential using a clustering technique. This quantitative multi-driver assessment not only distinguishes where overall compound flooding potential is the highest, but also discriminates which driver combinations are more likely to contribute to compound flooding. We identify hotspots of compound flooding potential located along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea.
1684-9981
Camus Brana, Paula
66625386-9051-4ea8-a0fa-956751534796
Haigh, Ivan
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d
Nasr, Ahmed A.
1cdd0ff6-1608-43e4-bca6-c2410318b7eb
Wahl, Thomas
e7885d1f-7117-46cf-98f5-428b35ce6c4c
Darby, Stephen
4c3e1c76-d404-4ff3-86f8-84e42fbb7970
Nicholls, Robert
5ccdb8f7-0ed5-4f6e-b36c-518f5b15db5d
Camus Brana, Paula
66625386-9051-4ea8-a0fa-956751534796
Haigh, Ivan
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d
Nasr, Ahmed A.
1cdd0ff6-1608-43e4-bca6-c2410318b7eb
Wahl, Thomas
e7885d1f-7117-46cf-98f5-428b35ce6c4c
Darby, Stephen
4c3e1c76-d404-4ff3-86f8-84e42fbb7970
Nicholls, Robert
5ccdb8f7-0ed5-4f6e-b36c-518f5b15db5d

Camus Brana, Paula, Haigh, Ivan, Nasr, Ahmed A., Wahl, Thomas, Darby, Stephen and Nicholls, Robert (2021) Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

Record type: Article

Abstract

In coastal regions, floods can arise through a combination of multiple drivers, including direct surface run- off, river discharge, storm surge and waves. In this study, we analyse compound flood potential in Europe caused by these four main flooding sources using state-of-the-art databases with homogenous forcing (i.e., ERA5). First, we perform an analysis to assess the sensitivity of the compound flooding potential to several factors: 1) sampling method; 2) time window to select the concurrent event of the conditioned driver; 3) dependence metrics; 4) wave-driven sea level definition. We observe higher correlation coefficients using annual maxima than peaks over threshold. Regarding the other factors, our results show similar spatial distributions of the compound flooding potential. Second, the dependence between the pairs of drivers using the Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient and the joint occurrence are synthesized for coherent patterns of compound flooding potential using a clustering technique. This quantitative multi-driver assessment not only distinguishes where overall compound flooding potential is the highest, but also discriminates which driver combinations are more likely to contribute to compound flooding. We identify hotspots of compound flooding potential located along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea.

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Accepted/In Press date: 3 March 2021
Published date: July 2021

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 450260
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/450260
ISSN: 1684-9981
PURE UUID: c1ca0e0f-154a-43f8-9307-14bc06d766d3
ORCID for Stephen Darby: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-8778-4394

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Date deposited: 19 Jul 2021 16:37
Last modified: 20 Jul 2021 01:37

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Contributors

Author: Ivan Haigh
Author: Ahmed A. Nasr
Author: Thomas Wahl
Author: Stephen Darby ORCID iD
Author: Robert Nicholls

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