The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Reinfection and low cross-immunity as drivers of epidemic resurgence under high seroprevalence: a model-based approach with application to Amazonas, Brazil

Reinfection and low cross-immunity as drivers of epidemic resurgence under high seroprevalence: a model-based approach with application to Amazonas, Brazil
Reinfection and low cross-immunity as drivers of epidemic resurgence under high seroprevalence: a model-based approach with application to Amazonas, Brazil
This paper introduces a new multi-strain epidemic model with reinfection and cross-immunity to provide insights into the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in an area with reportedly high seroprevalence due to a largely unmitigated outbreak: the state of Amazonas, Brazil. Although high seroprevalence could have been expected to trigger herd immunity and prevent further waves in the state, we have observed persistent levels of infection after the first wave and eventually the emergence of a second viral strain just before an augmented second wave. Our experiments suggest that the persistent levels of infection after the first wave may be due to reinfection, whereas the higher peak at the second wave can be explained by the emergence of the second variant and a low level of cross-immunity between the original and the second variant. Finally, the proposed model provides insights into the effect of reinfection and cross-immunity on the long-term spread of an unmitigated epidemic.
q-bio.PE, physics.soc-ph
2331-8422
Arruda, Edilson F.
8eb3bd83-e883-4bf3-bfbc-7887c5daa911
Pastore, Dayse H.
50335f89-5fe1-4f90-9b7d-59647d652942
Dias, Claudia M.
54153804-0dab-4203-9572-e8cc873d0e19
Ourique, Fabricio
2eec16a4-944b-4079-8123-8204569d1dd2
Arruda, Edilson F.
8eb3bd83-e883-4bf3-bfbc-7887c5daa911
Pastore, Dayse H.
50335f89-5fe1-4f90-9b7d-59647d652942
Dias, Claudia M.
54153804-0dab-4203-9572-e8cc873d0e19
Ourique, Fabricio
2eec16a4-944b-4079-8123-8204569d1dd2

Arruda, Edilson F., Pastore, Dayse H., Dias, Claudia M. and Ourique, Fabricio (2021) Reinfection and low cross-immunity as drivers of epidemic resurgence under high seroprevalence: a model-based approach with application to Amazonas, Brazil. arXiv.

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper introduces a new multi-strain epidemic model with reinfection and cross-immunity to provide insights into the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in an area with reportedly high seroprevalence due to a largely unmitigated outbreak: the state of Amazonas, Brazil. Although high seroprevalence could have been expected to trigger herd immunity and prevent further waves in the state, we have observed persistent levels of infection after the first wave and eventually the emergence of a second viral strain just before an augmented second wave. Our experiments suggest that the persistent levels of infection after the first wave may be due to reinfection, whereas the higher peak at the second wave can be explained by the emergence of the second variant and a low level of cross-immunity between the original and the second variant. Finally, the proposed model provides insights into the effect of reinfection and cross-immunity on the long-term spread of an unmitigated epidemic.

Text
2106.15928v1 - Other
Download (360kB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 30 June 2021
e-pub ahead of print date: 30 June 2021
Additional Information: Pre-print
Keywords: q-bio.PE, physics.soc-ph

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 450277
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/450277
ISSN: 2331-8422
PURE UUID: 2df6e29b-c33b-4dda-a9de-221a47cd1648
ORCID for Edilson F. Arruda: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9835-352X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 20 Jul 2021 16:31
Last modified: 09 Jun 2022 01:55

Export record

Contributors

Author: Dayse H. Pastore
Author: Claudia M. Dias
Author: Fabricio Ourique

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×