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Toward an early warning system for monitoring asylum-related migration flows in Europe

Toward an early warning system for monitoring asylum-related migration flows in Europe
Toward an early warning system for monitoring asylum-related migration flows in Europe
Asylum-related migration is highly complex, uncertain, and volatile, which precludes using standard model-based predictions to inform policy and operational decisions. At the same time, asylum’s potentially high societal impacts on receiving countries and the resource implications of asylum processes call for more proactive approaches for assessing current and future migration flows. In this article, we propose an alternative approach to asylum modelling, based on detection of early warning signals, by using models originating from statistical control theory. Our empirical analysis of several asylum flows into Europe in 2010-16 demonstrates the approach’s utility and potential in aiding the management of mixed migration flows, while also shedding more light on the work needed to make better use of the ‘big data’ and scenario-based methods for comprehensive and systematic examination of risk, uncertainty, and emerging trends.
0197-9183
Napierała, Joanna
39724587-9d94-4fce-ad2d-61daf6755355
Hilton, Jason
da31e515-1e34-4e9f-846d-633176bb3931
Forster, Jonathan J.
ba9d3154-02fb-4fb8-aa1f-e53c969f597f
Carammia, Marcello
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Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Napierała, Joanna
39724587-9d94-4fce-ad2d-61daf6755355
Hilton, Jason
da31e515-1e34-4e9f-846d-633176bb3931
Forster, Jonathan J.
ba9d3154-02fb-4fb8-aa1f-e53c969f597f
Carammia, Marcello
8839b6e4-4f2b-402d-8c3d-e715d7375853
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66

Napierała, Joanna, Hilton, Jason, Forster, Jonathan J., Carammia, Marcello and Bijak, Jakub (2021) Toward an early warning system for monitoring asylum-related migration flows in Europe. International Migration Review. (In Press)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Asylum-related migration is highly complex, uncertain, and volatile, which precludes using standard model-based predictions to inform policy and operational decisions. At the same time, asylum’s potentially high societal impacts on receiving countries and the resource implications of asylum processes call for more proactive approaches for assessing current and future migration flows. In this article, we propose an alternative approach to asylum modelling, based on detection of early warning signals, by using models originating from statistical control theory. Our empirical analysis of several asylum flows into Europe in 2010-16 demonstrates the approach’s utility and potential in aiding the management of mixed migration flows, while also shedding more light on the work needed to make better use of the ‘big data’ and scenario-based methods for comprehensive and systematic examination of risk, uncertainty, and emerging trends.

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Early-warning-system-asylum-migration - Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 12 July 2021

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 450328
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/450328
ISSN: 0197-9183
PURE UUID: 6f6cd369-8d4d-46e9-be10-870a6878f3b6
ORCID for Jason Hilton: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9473-757X
ORCID for Jakub Bijak: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2563-5040

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 23 Jul 2021 16:30
Last modified: 13 Dec 2021 03:07

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Contributors

Author: Joanna Napierała
Author: Jason Hilton ORCID iD
Author: Jonathan J. Forster
Author: Marcello Carammia
Author: Jakub Bijak ORCID iD

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