Toward an early warning system for monitoring asylum-related migration flows in Europe
Toward an early warning system for monitoring asylum-related migration flows in Europe
Asylum-related migration is highly complex, uncertain, and volatile, which precludes using standard model-based predictions to inform policy and operational decisions. At the same time, asylum’s potentially high societal impacts on receiving countries and the resource implications of asylum processes call for more proactive approaches for assessing current and future migration flows. In this article, we propose an alternative approach to asylum modelling, based on detection of early warning signals, by using models originating from statistical control theory. Our empirical analysis of several asylum flows into Europe in 2010-16 demonstrates the approach’s utility and potential in aiding the management of mixed migration flows, while also shedding more light on the work needed to make better use of the ‘big data’ and scenario-based methods for comprehensive and systematic examination of risk, uncertainty, and emerging trends.
Napierała, Joanna
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Hilton, Jason
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Forster, Jonathan J.
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Carammia, Marcello
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Bijak, Jakub
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Napierała, Joanna
39724587-9d94-4fce-ad2d-61daf6755355
Hilton, Jason
da31e515-1e34-4e9f-846d-633176bb3931
Forster, Jonathan J.
ba9d3154-02fb-4fb8-aa1f-e53c969f597f
Carammia, Marcello
8839b6e4-4f2b-402d-8c3d-e715d7375853
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Napierała, Joanna, Hilton, Jason, Forster, Jonathan J., Carammia, Marcello and Bijak, Jakub
(2021)
Toward an early warning system for monitoring asylum-related migration flows in Europe.
International Migration Review.
(In Press)
Abstract
Asylum-related migration is highly complex, uncertain, and volatile, which precludes using standard model-based predictions to inform policy and operational decisions. At the same time, asylum’s potentially high societal impacts on receiving countries and the resource implications of asylum processes call for more proactive approaches for assessing current and future migration flows. In this article, we propose an alternative approach to asylum modelling, based on detection of early warning signals, by using models originating from statistical control theory. Our empirical analysis of several asylum flows into Europe in 2010-16 demonstrates the approach’s utility and potential in aiding the management of mixed migration flows, while also shedding more light on the work needed to make better use of the ‘big data’ and scenario-based methods for comprehensive and systematic examination of risk, uncertainty, and emerging trends.
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Early-warning-system-asylum-migration
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Accepted/In Press date: 12 July 2021
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 450328
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/450328
ISSN: 0197-9183
PURE UUID: 6f6cd369-8d4d-46e9-be10-870a6878f3b6
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Date deposited: 23 Jul 2021 16:30
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:25
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Contributors
Author:
Joanna Napierała
Author:
Jonathan J. Forster
Author:
Marcello Carammia
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