READ ME File For 'Thesis Code: Stochastic Modelling and Projection of Age-Specific Fertility Rates' Dataset DOI: 10.5258/SOTON/D1841 ReadMe Author: Joanne Ellison, University of Southampton, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-6973-8797 This dataset supports the thesis entitled 'Stochastic Modelling and Projection of Age-Specific Fertility Rates' AWARDED BY: University of Southampton DATE OF AWARD: 2021 DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA This dataset contains R code and Stan files to perform analyses in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 of the thesis. The zip file contains three folders - chap2, chap3, chap4 - to perform the analyses for Chapters 2, 3 ad 4 respectively. Within each chapter folder, follow the instructions in the source file ("source_file.r") to complete the setup and perform the analyses. To run this code you will need R version 3.4.0 or above and be able to install packages, in particular rstan, which is required to implement the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methodology used to fit the models in Chapters 2 and 3. This will probably require you to also install the package Rtools, explained in the rstan installation instructions that can be found at "https://github.com/stan-dev/rstan/wiki". The Chapter 2 code downloads data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD) directly. You will need to have set up an HFD account (go to "https://www.humanfertility.org/cgi-bin/main.php"), the username and password for which will be requested in the code. The Chapter 3 code requires the user to obtain permission to download the Special Licence version of Understanding Society. We use the seventh edition: University of Essex. Institute for Social and Economic Research, NatCen Social Research, Kantar Public. (2017). Understanding Society: Waves 1-7, 2009-2016: Special Licence Access. [data collection]. 7th Edition. UK Data Service. SN: 6931, "http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-6931-7". The data processing code applies to cleaned fertility histories kindly provided by Ann Berrington and Juliet Stone, which form part of the dataset analysed in Berrington et al. (2015) - please see this paper for further details: Berrington, A., Stone, J., & Beaujouan, E. (2015). Educational differences in timing and quantum of childbearing in Britain: A study of cohorts born 1940-1969. Demographic Research, 33, 733–764. "https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2015.33.26". This code also requires the user to download data from the UNDP Human Developments Report website. Go to "http://hdr.undp.org/en/indicators/137506" and click "Download Data" (top-right of page). Then save the file as "Human Development Index (HDI).csv" in "chap3/data". Note that the values extracted in the code are not identical to the 2018 values used in the analyses due to data updates, and therefore results may differ. The Chapter 4 code downloads data from the ONS directly ("https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/adhocs/11482fertilityratesbyparity1934to2018englandandwales"). Licence: CC-BY Funding: The doctoral programme of the author is funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (award reference 1801045). Date that the file was created: June, 2021