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SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return

SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return
SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return
In this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission. The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimes spillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the local population. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. We found the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms of reducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation is likely to be much more important for reducing transmission during term time. Finally, we explored strategies for testing students in the context of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak.
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, epidemic modelling, higher education, pandemic modelling
2054-5703
210310
Enright, Jessica
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Hill, Edward M.
9436045f-3616-415d-b741-516ed54f0715
Stage, Helena
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Bolton, Kirsty
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Nixon, Emily
dad1be89-2a16-4748-bef0-1d248f84a80b
Fairbanks, Emma
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Tang, Maria
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Brooks-Pollock, Ellen
de0ed1fe-28d9-47b5-8a1e-345191f0df3c
Dyson, Louise
ba79ec08-c76b-4921-aad7-75643035393d
Budd, Chris
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Hoyle, Rebecca
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Schewe, Lars
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Gog, Julia
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Tildesley, Michael
d2cbb08b-d504-463a-b09b-645859095f6e
Enright, Jessica
37b54d11-eec2-489b-8a50-2201e10f0545
Hill, Edward M.
9436045f-3616-415d-b741-516ed54f0715
Stage, Helena
1e533988-44d5-499a-9fef-4f2ed6e3b6d7
Bolton, Kirsty
32b7df77-e0bb-4048-9588-a85dd65b9f2e
Nixon, Emily
dad1be89-2a16-4748-bef0-1d248f84a80b
Fairbanks, Emma
9454ca52-a457-493f-bc9a-44eab936efbd
Tang, Maria
29d1ca3a-1152-40e3-8a65-8576a4167dfe
Brooks-Pollock, Ellen
de0ed1fe-28d9-47b5-8a1e-345191f0df3c
Dyson, Louise
ba79ec08-c76b-4921-aad7-75643035393d
Budd, Chris
5197d25a-8a8f-4863-8b6c-c09eb21856c2
Hoyle, Rebecca
e980d6a8-b750-491b-be13-84d695f8b8a1
Schewe, Lars
1d15c41c-a53e-494d-89f4-a76345bf9d70
Gog, Julia
6c37beb6-5d16-4e6c-8f0c-e2a713722492
Tildesley, Michael
d2cbb08b-d504-463a-b09b-645859095f6e

Enright, Jessica, Hill, Edward M., Stage, Helena, Bolton, Kirsty, Nixon, Emily, Fairbanks, Emma, Tang, Maria, Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Dyson, Louise, Budd, Chris, Hoyle, Rebecca, Schewe, Lars, Gog, Julia and Tildesley, Michael (2021) SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return. Royal Society Open Science, 8 (8), 210310, [210310]. (doi:10.1098/rsos.210310).

Record type: Article

Abstract

In this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission. The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimes spillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the local population. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. We found the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms of reducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation is likely to be much more important for reducing transmission during term time. Finally, we explored strategies for testing students in the context of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 16 July 2021
e-pub ahead of print date: 4 August 2021
Published date: 4 August 2021
Additional Information: Funding Information: acknowledges support from a University of Nottingham Anne McLaren Fellowship. E.L.F. acknowledges support via K.J.B.’s fellowship and the Nottingham BBSRC Doctoral Training Partnership. M.L.T. was supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant no. EP/N509620/1). E.B.-P., E.J.N., L.D., J.R.G. and M.J.T. were supported by UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium (grant no. MR/V038613/1). E.M.H., L.D. and M.J.T. were supported by the Medical Research Council through the COVID-19 Rapid Response Rolling Call (grant no. MR/V009761/1). H.B.S. is funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant no. 202562/ Z/16/Z). J.E. is partially funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant no. EP/ T004878/1). Acknowledgements. The authors thank the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge, for support during the programme Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics where work on this paper was undertaken. Funding Information: Data accessibility. This article has no additional data. Authors’ contributions. J.E. conceptualization, methodology, software, formal analysis, investigation, writing—original draft, review and editing, visualization. E.M.H. conceptualization, methodology, software, formal analysis, investigation, writing—original draft, review and editing, visualization. H.B.S. conceptualization, methodology, software, formal analysis, investigation, writing—original draft, review and editing, visualization. K.J.B. conceptualization, methodology, investigation, data curation, writing—original draft, review and editing, visualization, supervision. E.J.N. conceptualization, methodology, software, formal analysis, investigation, writing—original draft, review and editing, visualization. E.L.F. conceptualization, methodology, software, formal analysis, investigation, data curation, writing—original draft, review and editing, visualization. M.L.T. conceptualization, investigation, writing—original draft, review and editing. E.B.-P. conceptualization, software, review and editing, supervision. L.D. conceptualization, review and editing, supervision. C.J.B. conceptualization, methodology, software, formal analysis, investigation, writing—original draft, review and editing, visualization. R.B.H. conceptualization, methodology, software, formal analysis, investigation, writing—original draft, review and editing, visualization. L.S. conceptualization, methodology, software, formal analysis, investigation, writing—original draft, review and editing, visualization. J.R.G. conceptualization, writing—original draft, review and editing, supervision, project management. M.J.T. conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, investigation, writing—original draft, review and editing, supervision, project management. Competing interests. We declare we have no competing interests. Funding. This work was supported by EPSRC grant no EP/R014604/1. The authors would also like to thank the Virtual Forum for Knowledge Exchange in Mathematical Sciences (V-KEMS) for the support during the workshop Unlocking higher education Spaces – What Might Mathematics Tell Us? where work on this paper was undertaken. K.J.B. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors.
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, epidemic modelling, higher education, pandemic modelling

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 450963
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/450963
ISSN: 2054-5703
PURE UUID: b0dc3e94-9dd4-4bc4-aee2-7a4798910b68
ORCID for Rebecca Hoyle: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1645-1071

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Date deposited: 27 Aug 2021 16:30
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:21

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Contributors

Author: Jessica Enright
Author: Edward M. Hill
Author: Helena Stage
Author: Kirsty Bolton
Author: Emily Nixon
Author: Emma Fairbanks
Author: Maria Tang
Author: Ellen Brooks-Pollock
Author: Louise Dyson
Author: Chris Budd
Author: Rebecca Hoyle ORCID iD
Author: Lars Schewe
Author: Julia Gog
Author: Michael Tildesley

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