Mobility in China, 2020: a tale of four phases
Mobility in China, 2020: a tale of four phases
2020 was an unprecedented year, with rapid and drastic changes in human mobility due to the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the variation in commuting patterns among the Chinese population across stable and unstable periods, we used nationwide mobility data from 318 million mobile phone users in China to examine the extreme fluctuations of population movements in 2020, ranging from the Lunar New Year travel season (chunyun), to the exceptional calm of COVID-19 lockdown, and then to the recovery period. We observed that cross-city movements, which increased substantially in chunyun and then dropped sharply during the lockdown, are primarily dependent on travel distance and the socio-economic development of cities. Following the Lunar New Year holiday, national mobility remained low until mid-February, and COVID-19 interventions delayed more than 72.89 million people returning to large cities. Mobility network analysis revealed clusters of highly connected cities, conforming to the social-economic division of urban agglomerations in China. While the mass migration back to large cities was delayed, smaller cities connected more densely to form new clusters. During the recovery period after travel restrictions were lifted, the netflows of over 55% city pairs reversed in direction compared to before the lockdown. These findings offer the most comprehensive picture of Chinese mobility at fine resolution across various scenarios in China and are of critical importance for decision making regarding future public-health-emergency response, transportation planning and regional economic development, among others.
COVID-19, behavioral response, human mobility, mobile phone data, travel restrictions
Tan, Suo-yi
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Lai, Shengjie
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Fang, Fan
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Cao, Ziqiang
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Sai, Bin
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Song, Bing
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Dai, Bitao
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Guo, Shuhui
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Liu, Chuchu
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Cai, Mengsi
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Wang, Tong
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Wang, Mengning
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Li, Jiaxu
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Chen, Saran
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Qin, Shuo
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Floyd, Jessica R
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Cao, Zhidong
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Tan, Jing
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Sun, Xin
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Zhou, Tao
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Zhang, Wei
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Tatem, Andrew J
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Holme, Petter
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Chen, Xiaohong
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Lu, Xin
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16 August 2021
Tan, Suo-yi
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Lai, Shengjie
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Fang, Fan
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Cao, Ziqiang
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Sai, Bin
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Song, Bing
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Dai, Bitao
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Guo, Shuhui
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Liu, Chuchu
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Cai, Mengsi
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Wang, Tong
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Wang, Mengning
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Li, Jiaxu
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Chen, Saran
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Qin, Shuo
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Floyd, Jessica R
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Cao, Zhidong
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Tan, Jing
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Sun, Xin
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Zhou, Tao
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Zhang, Wei
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Tatem, Andrew J
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Holme, Petter
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Chen, Xiaohong
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Lu, Xin
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Tan, Suo-yi, Lai, Shengjie, Fang, Fan, Cao, Ziqiang, Sai, Bin, Song, Bing, Dai, Bitao, Guo, Shuhui, Liu, Chuchu, Cai, Mengsi, Wang, Tong, Wang, Mengning, Li, Jiaxu, Chen, Saran, Qin, Shuo, Floyd, Jessica R, Cao, Zhidong, Tan, Jing, Sun, Xin, Zhou, Tao, Zhang, Wei, Tatem, Andrew J, Holme, Petter, Chen, Xiaohong and Lu, Xin
(2021)
Mobility in China, 2020: a tale of four phases.
National Science Review, 8 (11), [nwab148].
(doi:10.1093/nsr/nwab148).
Abstract
2020 was an unprecedented year, with rapid and drastic changes in human mobility due to the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the variation in commuting patterns among the Chinese population across stable and unstable periods, we used nationwide mobility data from 318 million mobile phone users in China to examine the extreme fluctuations of population movements in 2020, ranging from the Lunar New Year travel season (chunyun), to the exceptional calm of COVID-19 lockdown, and then to the recovery period. We observed that cross-city movements, which increased substantially in chunyun and then dropped sharply during the lockdown, are primarily dependent on travel distance and the socio-economic development of cities. Following the Lunar New Year holiday, national mobility remained low until mid-February, and COVID-19 interventions delayed more than 72.89 million people returning to large cities. Mobility network analysis revealed clusters of highly connected cities, conforming to the social-economic division of urban agglomerations in China. While the mass migration back to large cities was delayed, smaller cities connected more densely to form new clusters. During the recovery period after travel restrictions were lifted, the netflows of over 55% city pairs reversed in direction compared to before the lockdown. These findings offer the most comprehensive picture of Chinese mobility at fine resolution across various scenarios in China and are of critical importance for decision making regarding future public-health-emergency response, transportation planning and regional economic development, among others.
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More information
Submitted date: 15 March 2021
Accepted/In Press date: 10 August 2021
e-pub ahead of print date: 16 August 2021
Published date: 16 August 2021
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
X.L. and X.H.C was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91846301, 72088101, 71790615, 72025405, 82041020 and 71771213) and the Hunan Science and Technology Plan Project (2019GK2131 and 2020TP1013). S.Y.T. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72001211) and the Hunan Science and Technology Plan Project (2020JJ5679). S.R.C. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71901067). T.Z. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (11975071). S.L. was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-024911), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81773498) and the National Science and Technology Major Project of China (2016ZX10004222-009). A.J.T. was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-024911, OPP1106427, OPP1032350, OPP1134076 and OPP1094793), NIH (PAR-20-185), the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Wellcome Trust (106866/Z/15/Z and 204613/Z/16/Z) and the EUH2020 program (MOOD 874850). P.H. was supported by JSPS KAKENHI(21H04595). This work was also partially supported by the Sichuan Science and Technology Plan Project (2020YFS0007) and the Shenzhen Basic Research Project for Development of Science and Technology (JCYJ20200109141218676).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of China Science Publishing & Media Ltd.
Keywords:
COVID-19, behavioral response, human mobility, mobile phone data, travel restrictions
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 451166
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/451166
ISSN: 2095-5138
PURE UUID: afe34d22-b67b-4092-aa94-a9d6906830a3
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Date deposited: 14 Sep 2021 15:31
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:52
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Contributors
Author:
Suo-yi Tan
Author:
Fan Fang
Author:
Ziqiang Cao
Author:
Bin Sai
Author:
Bing Song
Author:
Bitao Dai
Author:
Shuhui Guo
Author:
Chuchu Liu
Author:
Mengsi Cai
Author:
Tong Wang
Author:
Mengning Wang
Author:
Jiaxu Li
Author:
Saran Chen
Author:
Shuo Qin
Author:
Jessica R Floyd
Author:
Zhidong Cao
Author:
Jing Tan
Author:
Xin Sun
Author:
Tao Zhou
Author:
Wei Zhang
Author:
Petter Holme
Author:
Xiaohong Chen
Author:
Xin Lu
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