New entry and strategic group emergence in the soccer betting market: pricing behaviours, group interaction and efficiency implications
New entry and strategic group emergence in the soccer betting market: pricing behaviours, group interaction and efficiency implications
The arrival of online trading in European football betting markets has brought significant structural change to the sector in recent years, with the emergence of two strategic groups of bookmakers, characterised by distinctive operating behaviours. We examine the impact on market efficiency of interactions between these two groups, by comparing 51,000 individual odds offered by leading bookmakers at nine separate points on game outcomes, across 2,132 games in six European leagues. This longitudinal analysis reveals that interactions between these groups enable information to be transmitted from informed bettors to market prices, thereby increasing market efficiency.
3-31
Bruce, Alistair
0b7d7cb5-1d15-4a59-85f0-ff52decef4d8
Oikonomidis, Anastasios
3a9f5674-08ab-4f9f-9285-bb929dce146c
Sung, Ming-Chien
2114f823-bc7f-4306-a775-67aee413aa03
Johnson, Johnnie
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
Bruce, Alistair
0b7d7cb5-1d15-4a59-85f0-ff52decef4d8
Oikonomidis, Anastasios
3a9f5674-08ab-4f9f-9285-bb929dce146c
Sung, Ming-Chien
2114f823-bc7f-4306-a775-67aee413aa03
Johnson, Johnnie
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
Bruce, Alistair, Oikonomidis, Anastasios, Sung, Ming-Chien and Johnson, Johnnie
(2021)
New entry and strategic group emergence in the soccer betting market: pricing behaviours, group interaction and efficiency implications.
Journal of Prediction Markets, 15 (3), .
(doi:10.5750/jpm.v15i3.1988).
Abstract
The arrival of online trading in European football betting markets has brought significant structural change to the sector in recent years, with the emergence of two strategic groups of bookmakers, characterised by distinctive operating behaviours. We examine the impact on market efficiency of interactions between these two groups, by comparing 51,000 individual odds offered by leading bookmakers at nine separate points on game outcomes, across 2,132 games in six European leagues. This longitudinal analysis reveals that interactions between these groups enable information to be transmitted from informed bettors to market prices, thereby increasing market efficiency.
Text
Football market efficiency inc abstract_
- Accepted Manuscript
Restricted to Repository staff only
Request a copy
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 4 September 2021
e-pub ahead of print date: 16 November 2021
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 451322
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/451322
ISSN: 1750-6751
PURE UUID: 3f28be8b-a84b-4089-9642-e0adc49982fc
Catalogue record
Date deposited: 21 Sep 2021 16:30
Last modified: 19 Oct 2024 01:39
Export record
Altmetrics
Contributors
Author:
Alistair Bruce
Author:
Anastasios Oikonomidis
Author:
Johnnie Johnson
Download statistics
Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.
View more statistics
