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New entry and strategic group emergence in the soccer betting market: pricing behaviours, group interaction and efficiency implications

New entry and strategic group emergence in the soccer betting market: pricing behaviours, group interaction and efficiency implications
New entry and strategic group emergence in the soccer betting market: pricing behaviours, group interaction and efficiency implications
The arrival of online trading in European football betting markets has brought significant structural change to the sector in recent years, with the emergence of two strategic groups of bookmakers, characterised by distinctive operating behaviours. We examine the impact on market efficiency of interactions between these two groups, by comparing 51,000 individual odds offered by leading bookmakers at nine separate points on game outcomes, across 2,132 games in six European leagues. This longitudinal analysis reveals that interactions between these groups enable information to be transmitted from informed bettors to market prices, thereby increasing market efficiency.
1750-6751
3-31
Bruce, Alistair
0b7d7cb5-1d15-4a59-85f0-ff52decef4d8
Oikonomidis, Anastasios
3a9f5674-08ab-4f9f-9285-bb929dce146c
Sung, Ming-Chien
2114f823-bc7f-4306-a775-67aee413aa03
Johnson, Johnnie
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
Bruce, Alistair
0b7d7cb5-1d15-4a59-85f0-ff52decef4d8
Oikonomidis, Anastasios
3a9f5674-08ab-4f9f-9285-bb929dce146c
Sung, Ming-Chien
2114f823-bc7f-4306-a775-67aee413aa03
Johnson, Johnnie
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4

Bruce, Alistair, Oikonomidis, Anastasios, Sung, Ming-Chien and Johnson, Johnnie (2021) New entry and strategic group emergence in the soccer betting market: pricing behaviours, group interaction and efficiency implications. Journal of Prediction Markets, 15 (3), 3-31. (doi:10.5750/jpm.v15i3.1988).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The arrival of online trading in European football betting markets has brought significant structural change to the sector in recent years, with the emergence of two strategic groups of bookmakers, characterised by distinctive operating behaviours. We examine the impact on market efficiency of interactions between these two groups, by comparing 51,000 individual odds offered by leading bookmakers at nine separate points on game outcomes, across 2,132 games in six European leagues. This longitudinal analysis reveals that interactions between these groups enable information to be transmitted from informed bettors to market prices, thereby increasing market efficiency.

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Accepted/In Press date: 4 September 2021
Published date: 16 November 2021

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 451322
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/451322
ISSN: 1750-6751
PURE UUID: 3f28be8b-a84b-4089-9642-e0adc49982fc
ORCID for Ming-Chien Sung: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2278-6185

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Date deposited: 21 Sep 2021 16:30
Last modified: 19 Mar 2022 02:38

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Contributors

Author: Alistair Bruce
Author: Anastasios Oikonomidis
Author: Ming-Chien Sung ORCID iD
Author: Johnnie Johnson

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