The changing electoral geography of England and Wales: varieties of 'left-behindedness'

Abstract

A well-established narrative has existed for some time in British politics: ‘left behind’ places are gradually moving to the Conservatives as Labour dominate in urban, ‘cosmopolitan’ areas. Merging constituency-level census data with election results, in the first empirical chapter this thesis applies various regression techniques to test this idea on multiple definitions of ‘left-behindedness’ at every General Election between 1979 and 2017 in England and Wales. Conclusive results indicate that the Conservatives have gained support at Labour’s expense in largely older, white, working class constituencies. However, Labour remain dominant in disadvantaged areas with high levels of insecure employment and poverty remains the most important positive predictor of Labour’s support. In the second chapter, ‘left-behindedness’ is understood as a dynamic process of decline. In areas that have declined the least between 1979 and 2017, Labour’s mean vote shares have increased relative to the Conservatives. In areas that have seen the sharpest economic decline, there has been more recent decreasing relative support for Labour. In the third empirical chapter, spatial analytical techniques are used to identify areas that do not fit these trends. Following interviews with political actors, two case studies in Merseyside and south Lincolnshire explore the place-based factors behind the over-achievement of Labour in the former and the Conservatives in the latter. The thesis concludes that it is premature to argue that ‘left behind’ places are moving from Labour to the Conservatives, providing that ‘left behind’ is re-conceptualised to refer to the most disadvantaged areas rather than older, white, ‘traditional working-class’ populations.

More information

Identifiers

ORCID for Andrew Hinde: orcid.org/0000-0002-8909-9152

Catalogue record

Export record