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The changing electoral geography of England and Wales: varieties of 'left-behindedness'

The changing electoral geography of England and Wales: varieties of 'left-behindedness'
The changing electoral geography of England and Wales: varieties of 'left-behindedness'
A well-established narrative has existed for some time in British politics: ‘left behind’ places are gradually moving to the Conservatives as Labour dominate in urban, ‘cosmopolitan’ areas. Merging constituency-level census data with election results, in the first empirical chapter this thesis applies various regression techniques to test this idea on multiple definitions of ‘left-behindedness’ at every General Election between 1979 and 2017 in England and Wales. Conclusive results indicate that the Conservatives have gained support at Labour’s expense in largely older, white, working class constituencies. However, Labour remain dominant in disadvantaged areas with high levels of insecure employment and poverty remains the most important positive predictor of Labour’s support. In the second chapter, ‘left-behindedness’ is understood as a dynamic process of decline. In areas that have declined the least between 1979 and 2017, Labour’s mean vote shares have increased relative to the Conservatives. In areas that have seen the sharpest economic decline, there has been more recent decreasing relative support for Labour. In the third empirical chapter, spatial analytical techniques are used to identify areas that do not fit these trends. Following interviews with political actors, two case studies in Merseyside and south Lincolnshire explore the place-based factors behind the over-achievement of Labour in the former and the Conservatives in the latter. The thesis concludes that it is premature to argue that ‘left behind’ places are moving from Labour to the Conservatives, providing that ‘left behind’ is re-conceptualised to refer to the most disadvantaged areas rather than older, white, ‘traditional working-class’ populations.
University of Southampton
Furlong, Jamie
97d5b470-5ad4-4120-851a-37de96cce3e7
Furlong, Jamie
97d5b470-5ad4-4120-851a-37de96cce3e7
Hinde, Andrew
0691a8ab-dcdb-4694-93b4-40d5e71f672d

Furlong, Jamie (2020) The changing electoral geography of England and Wales: varieties of 'left-behindedness'. University of Southampton, Doctoral Thesis, 518pp.

Record type: Thesis (Doctoral)

Abstract

A well-established narrative has existed for some time in British politics: ‘left behind’ places are gradually moving to the Conservatives as Labour dominate in urban, ‘cosmopolitan’ areas. Merging constituency-level census data with election results, in the first empirical chapter this thesis applies various regression techniques to test this idea on multiple definitions of ‘left-behindedness’ at every General Election between 1979 and 2017 in England and Wales. Conclusive results indicate that the Conservatives have gained support at Labour’s expense in largely older, white, working class constituencies. However, Labour remain dominant in disadvantaged areas with high levels of insecure employment and poverty remains the most important positive predictor of Labour’s support. In the second chapter, ‘left-behindedness’ is understood as a dynamic process of decline. In areas that have declined the least between 1979 and 2017, Labour’s mean vote shares have increased relative to the Conservatives. In areas that have seen the sharpest economic decline, there has been more recent decreasing relative support for Labour. In the third empirical chapter, spatial analytical techniques are used to identify areas that do not fit these trends. Following interviews with political actors, two case studies in Merseyside and south Lincolnshire explore the place-based factors behind the over-achievement of Labour in the former and the Conservatives in the latter. The thesis concludes that it is premature to argue that ‘left behind’ places are moving from Labour to the Conservatives, providing that ‘left behind’ is re-conceptualised to refer to the most disadvantaged areas rather than older, white, ‘traditional working-class’ populations.

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Published date: 2020

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 451380
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/451380
PURE UUID: 6d194df4-34d3-4d2b-92c8-c7a0e42e89d7
ORCID for Andrew Hinde: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8909-9152

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Date deposited: 22 Sep 2021 16:33
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 02:39

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Contributors

Author: Jamie Furlong
Thesis advisor: Andrew Hinde ORCID iD

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