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Empirical Analysis of Ship Anchor Drag Incidents for Cable Burial Risk Assessments

Empirical Analysis of Ship Anchor Drag Incidents for Cable Burial Risk Assessments
Empirical Analysis of Ship Anchor Drag Incidents for Cable Burial Risk Assessments
Subsea cables are critical infrastructure for the global economy but are vulnerable to the risks of anchor strikes from ships, causing significant damage and interrupting global telecommunications or power networks. Whilst methodologies have been proposed to aid decision makers with optimal routeing and mitigation strategies for these cables, such methods require definition of drag probabilities which thus far have not been empirically validated. In this paper, we present a framework through which anchor drag probabilities can be calculated through analysis of historical vessel traffic data and environmental conditions. Drag distances, probabilities and causal influences of conditions are shown through comparison of three million hours of vessel anchoring exposure. We show that the wind speed and wave height are the most significant factors for calculating the likelihood of anchor dragging, but other factors omitted in this study may also be influential. The results show that the method can improve the validity of Cable Burial Risk Assessments, supporting navigation authorities and developers with mitigating the risks to subsea cables.
Rawson, Andrew, David
2f5d38d7-f4c9-45f5-a8de-c7f91b8f68c7
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c
Rawson, Andrew, David
2f5d38d7-f4c9-45f5-a8de-c7f91b8f68c7
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c

Rawson, Andrew, David and Brito, Mario (2021) Empirical Analysis of Ship Anchor Drag Incidents for Cable Burial Risk Assessments. 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference, Angers, France, Angers, France. 20 - 23 Sep 2021. (doi:10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_053-cd).

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

Subsea cables are critical infrastructure for the global economy but are vulnerable to the risks of anchor strikes from ships, causing significant damage and interrupting global telecommunications or power networks. Whilst methodologies have been proposed to aid decision makers with optimal routeing and mitigation strategies for these cables, such methods require definition of drag probabilities which thus far have not been empirically validated. In this paper, we present a framework through which anchor drag probabilities can be calculated through analysis of historical vessel traffic data and environmental conditions. Drag distances, probabilities and causal influences of conditions are shown through comparison of three million hours of vessel anchoring exposure. We show that the wind speed and wave height are the most significant factors for calculating the likelihood of anchor dragging, but other factors omitted in this study may also be influential. The results show that the method can improve the validity of Cable Burial Risk Assessments, supporting navigation authorities and developers with mitigating the risks to subsea cables.

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Published date: 17 September 2021
Venue - Dates: 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference, Angers, France, Angers, France, 2021-09-20 - 2021-09-23

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 451429
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/451429
PURE UUID: f896ebc0-0430-4e02-8363-a4d45fa01bbe
ORCID for Andrew, David Rawson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8774-2415
ORCID for Mario Brito: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1779-4535

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 27 Sep 2021 16:32
Last modified: 13 Dec 2021 03:30

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Contributors

Author: Andrew, David Rawson ORCID iD
Author: Mario Brito ORCID iD

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