Future intensification of extreme Aleutian low events and their climate impacts
Future intensification of extreme Aleutian low events and their climate impacts
Extreme Aleutian Low (AL) events have been associated with major ecosystem reorganisations and unusual weather patterns in the Pacific region, with serious socio-economic consequences. Yet, their future evolution and impacts on atmosphere-ocean interactions remain uncertain. Here, a large ensemble of historical and future runs from the Community Earth System Model is used to investigate the evolution of AL extremes. The frequency and persistence of AL extremes are quantified and their connection with climatic variables is examined. AL extremes become more frequent and persistent under the RCP8.5 scenario, associated with changes in precipitation and air temperature patterns over North America. Future changes in AL extremes also increase the variability of the sea surface temperature and net heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, the most significant heat and energy flux region of the basin. The increased frequency and persistence of future AL extremes may potentially cause substantial changes in fisheries and ecosystems of the entire Pacific region as a knock-on effect.
Giamalaki, Aikaterini
5e775077-5afb-4ed0-82ad-346af4815d4f
Beaulieu, Claudie
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Henson, Stephanie
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Martin, Adrian
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Kassem, Hachem
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Faranda, Davide
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15 September 2021
Giamalaki, Aikaterini
5e775077-5afb-4ed0-82ad-346af4815d4f
Beaulieu, Claudie
13ae2c11-ebfe-48d9-bda9-122cd013c021
Henson, Stephanie
d6532e17-a65b-4d7b-9ee3-755ecb565c19
Martin, Adrian
9d0d480d-9b3c-44c2-aafe-bb980ed98a6d
Kassem, Hachem
658efa7a-a02c-4b29-9d07-5d57e95a4b51
Faranda, Davide
db78a1c6-b6f5-4d1d-bac2-f425b5388265
Giamalaki, Aikaterini, Beaulieu, Claudie, Henson, Stephanie, Martin, Adrian, Kassem, Hachem and Faranda, Davide
(2021)
Future intensification of extreme Aleutian low events and their climate impacts.
Scientific Reports, 11 (1), [18395].
(doi:10.1038/s41598-021-97615-7).
Abstract
Extreme Aleutian Low (AL) events have been associated with major ecosystem reorganisations and unusual weather patterns in the Pacific region, with serious socio-economic consequences. Yet, their future evolution and impacts on atmosphere-ocean interactions remain uncertain. Here, a large ensemble of historical and future runs from the Community Earth System Model is used to investigate the evolution of AL extremes. The frequency and persistence of AL extremes are quantified and their connection with climatic variables is examined. AL extremes become more frequent and persistent under the RCP8.5 scenario, associated with changes in precipitation and air temperature patterns over North America. Future changes in AL extremes also increase the variability of the sea surface temperature and net heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, the most significant heat and energy flux region of the basin. The increased frequency and persistence of future AL extremes may potentially cause substantial changes in fisheries and ecosystems of the entire Pacific region as a knock-on effect.
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Published date: 15 September 2021
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
Funding for K.G. and C.B. was partially provided by Marie Curie FP7 Reintegration Grants within the Seventh European Community Framework (Grant No. 631466-TROPHYZ).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 451473
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/451473
ISSN: 2045-2322
PURE UUID: 2d2db559-1711-41ec-ae5f-0dc9c309d93f
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Date deposited: 30 Sep 2021 16:31
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:33
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Author:
Aikaterini Giamalaki
Author:
Adrian Martin
Author:
Davide Faranda
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