Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission among Air Passengers in China

Hu, Maogui, Wang, Jinfeng, Lin, Hui, Ruktanonchai, Corrine W, Xu, Chengdong, Meng, Bin, Zhang, Xin, Carioli, Alessandra, Feng, Yuqing, Yin, Qian, Floyd, Jessica R., Ruktanonchai, Nick W, Li, Zhongjie, Yang, Weizhong, Tatem, Andrew J and Lai, Shengjie (2021) Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission among Air Passengers in China. Clinical Infectious Diseases, [ciab836]. (doi:10.1093/cid/ciab836).

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Modern transportation plays a key role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and new variants. However, little is known about the exact transmission risk of the virus on airplanes.

METHODS: Using the itinerary and epidemiological data of COVID-19 cases and close contacts on domestic airplanes departing from Wuhan city in China before the lockdown on January 23, 2020, we estimated the upper and lower bounds of overall transmission risk of COVID-19 among travellers.

RESULTS: 175 index cases were identified among 5797 passengers on 177 airplanes. The upper and lower attack rates (ARs) of a seat were 0.60% (34/5622, 95%CI 0.43%-0.84%) and 0.33% (18/5400, 95%CI 0.21%-0.53%), respectively. In the upper- and lower-bound risk estimates, each index case infected 0.19 (SD 0.45) and 0.10 (SD 0.32) cases respectively. The seats immediately adjacent to the index cases had an AR of 9.2% (95%CI 5.7%-14.4%), with a relative risk 27.8 (95%CI 14.4-53.7) compared to other seats in the upper limit estimation. The middle seat had the highest AR (0.7%, 95%CI 0.4%-1.2%). The upper-bound AR increased from 0.7% (95%CI 0.5%-1.0%) to 1.2% (95%CI 0.4%-3.3%) when the co-travel time increased from 2.0 hours to 3.3 hours.

CONCLUSIONS: The ARs among travellers varied by seat distance from the index case and joint travel time, but the variation was not significant between the types of aircraft. The overall risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during domestic travel on planes was relatively low. These findings can improve our understanding of COVID-19 spread during travel and inform response efforts in the pandemic.

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Contributors

Author: Andrew J Tatem

Author: Shengjie Lai

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