Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19
Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19
This paper examines the recent declines in period fertility in the constituent countries of the UK during the past decade and speculates mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic could influence childbearing in the UK. The effects are likely to differ by age and presence of children. Considering potential forces acting on individuals at different ages and family sizes, we expect that the COVID-19 pandemic will depress fertility, particularly among younger people. Because fertility at all ages was declining before the onset of the pandemic, this could mean a further decline in period fertility to historically low UK levels. We put forward a number of scenarios to examine the possible impact of the pandemic on numbers of live births. Our projections show that for three scenarios out of four, fertility is expected to decline over the next 3 years, leading to significantly fewer births annually compared with the pre-pandemic period.
Berrington, Ann
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Ellison, Joanne
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Kuang, Bernice
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Vasireddy, Sindhu
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Kulu, Hill
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29 December 2021
Berrington, Ann
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Ellison, Joanne
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Kuang, Bernice
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Vasireddy, Sindhu
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Kulu, Hill
439546b3-673f-43b9-af83-ca81b7e65e51
Berrington, Ann, Ellison, Joanne, Kuang, Bernice, Vasireddy, Sindhu and Kulu, Hill
(2021)
Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19.
Population, Space and Place.
(doi:10.1002/psp.2546).
Abstract
This paper examines the recent declines in period fertility in the constituent countries of the UK during the past decade and speculates mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic could influence childbearing in the UK. The effects are likely to differ by age and presence of children. Considering potential forces acting on individuals at different ages and family sizes, we expect that the COVID-19 pandemic will depress fertility, particularly among younger people. Because fertility at all ages was declining before the onset of the pandemic, this could mean a further decline in period fertility to historically low UK levels. We put forward a number of scenarios to examine the possible impact of the pandemic on numbers of live births. Our projections show that for three scenarios out of four, fertility is expected to decline over the next 3 years, leading to significantly fewer births annually compared with the pre-pandemic period.
Text
Scenario based fertility projections for UK under covid
- Accepted Manuscript
More information
In preparation date: 18 October 2021
Accepted/In Press date: 18 October 2021
e-pub ahead of print date: 29 December 2021
Published date: 29 December 2021
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
This work was carried out within the ESRC Centre for Population Change and supported by Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) grants ES/S009477/1 and ES/R009139/1. The authors thank staff from ONS, NRS and NISRA for their advice on where to find published fertility trends data.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors. Population, Space and Place published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 452028
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/452028
ISSN: 1544-8444
PURE UUID: 5434adbc-fb53-4017-ad41-a38ab0ef94a8
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Date deposited: 09 Nov 2021 17:30
Last modified: 21 Nov 2024 05:01
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Contributors
Author:
Bernice Kuang
Author:
Sindhu Vasireddy
Author:
Hill Kulu
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