What drives energy consumption in BRICS countries? Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach

Abstract

Rapid urbanization, openness and growth in human development index are some of the leading determinants of energy consumption in developing countries, particularly in BRICS economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Thanks to their innate tendency to converge to the growth path of developed nations, BRICS countries are under increasing pressure to limit high energy consumption-triggered by outsourcing from developed nations. This paper attempts to weigh the relative importance of various determinants of energy consumption in BRICS countries between 1980 and 2016, studying in-depth the long-run co-movement pattern of energy consumption with demographic characteristics (depicting demand pressure) and macroeconomic aggregates (depicting cheap production cost). By leveraging on the trade-off between domestic and foreign demand and by employing the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach, we establish differential effects of various predictors: Whilst an increase in population growth rate, gross domestic product and capital account openness exert a positive and significant impact on energy consumption in Brazil, China and South Africa, foreign direct investment (FDI) and human development appear to enhance energy consumption in India, China and South Africa. The growth in external demand and the FDI inflows appear to have pushed urbanization, leading to greater energy consumption during the study period. Keeping in mind the sustainability goal, stronger green energy practices and sustainable urbanization patterns are needed to curb excessive energy sources.

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