The University of Southampton
×
Filter your search:
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant
Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries as a result of the Delta variant. We assessed reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction swab positivity in the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. During June and July 2021, we observed sustained exponential growth with an average doubling time of 25 days, driven by complete replacement of the Alpha variant by Delta and by high prevalence at younger, less-vaccinated ages. Prevalence among unvaccinated people [1.21% (95% credible interval 1.03%, 1.41%)] was three times that among double-vaccinated eople [0.40%(95% credible interval 0.34%, 0.48%]. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ∼50% and ∼60% during this period in England. Increased socialmixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.

0036-8075
Elliott, Paul
d949cc8a-1ac3-4e72-a0d5-eb57ee8d0708
Haw, David
026b29a8-7a18-47e1-9a54-f080bc763790
Wang, Haowei
831085a3-a2cc-48b2-942c-b9a7fac6b844
Eales, Oliver
0d425f60-fd4a-4ff5-9f4c-9b98738826b0
Walters, Caroline E
cd641994-8e64-481b-880e-06cae94bcc42
Ainslie, Kylie E C
e834ee0e-64c0-45f7-bc28-162662cb74e0
Atchison, Christina
40b2efe9-756a-4586-8ffc-ecaf97628471
Fronterre, Claudio
a276aebc-ecc3-4ca0-9c46-07150ab98498
Diggle, Peter J
592bf4a7-52c8-4e41-89e8-5d9661f4eaec
Page, Andrew J
e8890f4d-1ac2-40c4-9fd6-aed7be14a586
Trotter, Alexander J
34d239e8-3c5e-4ac7-8bed-68b497863718
Prosolek, Sophie J
9799b707-0f44-4507-9122-c273b1f92ef2
Ashby, Deborah
12a12757-6283-4323-a4b8-7f32b475847b
Donnelly, Christl A
122836d0-1450-4165-a86b-ef61da011627
Barclay, Wendy
36ccdce6-6828-4957-92c3-c27468a40c6f
Taylor, Graham
0af050d3-96b1-44c9-92ae-ce50b4393e64
Cooke, Graham
a732b437-ff1f-4da0-a505-f7297adefdf4
Ward, Helen
dd700fa5-647f-4916-aa50-6c0b3026f961
Darzi, Ara
9d83b585-1f16-488c-9fd3-fa750c06247b
Riley, Steven
d55dfb14-7830-4374-bdac-0fb6d5ea8ed2
Robson, Samuel C
84ae3cc8-7d99-4f25-a4cf-9c1ccb0c76d4
Loman, Nicholas J
7c0b912a-a6e8-42c6-94dd-17103158c81b
Connor, Thomas R
0f6acaa2-fd86-4ab0-bd67-c93d071f428c
Golubchik, Tanya
49b63464-056c-4ecd-95a3-49f0536ff9cd
Martinez Nunez, Rocio T
a6069f08-55cf-4477-b895-9c4fdd2ee5ee
Saeed, Kordo
87cb67e5-71e8-4759-bf23-2ea00ebd8b39
Prieto, Jacqui A
47dd42cd-35d5-4ece-8fc6-fdb8fe1f01cc
Shepherd, James G
c9084ea0-50a7-4518-b418-97c7cd76f65d
Parker, Matthew D
aa66f59f-cd58-4042-a6d1-852920c50558
Simpson, David A
43500f4b-1c1c-4aff-a133-c7d4e808dc70
Jones, Christopher R
e705c242-4dd2-42b2-a8d3-d25ef5b6c954
Holmes, Christopher
8e1a791b-0802-4b43-885a-f7511deb8389
Williams, Thomas
53e61b55-4405-4b54-bb24-a327d0df8825
Moore, Christopher
eedc2ea1-5a18-44f3-9004-70e0b1cad4e8
Paul, Hannah
f4f94849-f7f5-4501-8b1f-3c97938b86c2
Williams, Charlotte A
2f3c5203-6fbe-432d-a2ad-f039983069e4
Taylor, Sarah
5ced0ca3-e157-4d05-b295-9e67d2b61364
Jones, Sophie
1c89b585-8110-498e-9fa1-7f53f08044bc
Jones, Rachel
fff3e3fc-48e9-4270-b4bd-a31b742a5dee
Young, Jamie
2a5248ba-553f-4697-bcbd-6f5136389b72
Patel, Minal
ab0c56c7-ac84-40ad-a97c-86c80bbbc24a
Smith, Louise
c2c9c240-b88f-4254-8fdd-83f091365c9e
Partridge, David G
5ef69aca-58ec-4e36-815b-d301ff7845e5
Harrison, James W
3bf4b4aa-9186-45bb-9888-87bf46284172
Williams, David
c9ded967-198f-4c26-96b1-8c03d7d26445
Pearson, Clare
0ce7f9f0-7648-46c8-b50d-6eea4607d228
Gregory, Richard
cd7b374f-7b75-4410-87f5-7b35a7c41405
Baker, David J
9f49a83c-ea97-4ef1-8850-260c7ac2f881
Tucker, Rachel M
5703a22a-d006-49e5-a9ef-831945828f0f
Brown, Rebecca
a4912e7b-0056-4d4d-843d-3baf69f97f58
COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium11‡
Elliott, Paul
d949cc8a-1ac3-4e72-a0d5-eb57ee8d0708
Haw, David
026b29a8-7a18-47e1-9a54-f080bc763790
Wang, Haowei
831085a3-a2cc-48b2-942c-b9a7fac6b844
Eales, Oliver
0d425f60-fd4a-4ff5-9f4c-9b98738826b0
Walters, Caroline E
cd641994-8e64-481b-880e-06cae94bcc42
Ainslie, Kylie E C
e834ee0e-64c0-45f7-bc28-162662cb74e0
Atchison, Christina
40b2efe9-756a-4586-8ffc-ecaf97628471
Fronterre, Claudio
a276aebc-ecc3-4ca0-9c46-07150ab98498
Diggle, Peter J
592bf4a7-52c8-4e41-89e8-5d9661f4eaec
Page, Andrew J
e8890f4d-1ac2-40c4-9fd6-aed7be14a586
Trotter, Alexander J
34d239e8-3c5e-4ac7-8bed-68b497863718
Prosolek, Sophie J
9799b707-0f44-4507-9122-c273b1f92ef2
Ashby, Deborah
12a12757-6283-4323-a4b8-7f32b475847b
Donnelly, Christl A
122836d0-1450-4165-a86b-ef61da011627
Barclay, Wendy
36ccdce6-6828-4957-92c3-c27468a40c6f
Taylor, Graham
0af050d3-96b1-44c9-92ae-ce50b4393e64
Cooke, Graham
a732b437-ff1f-4da0-a505-f7297adefdf4
Ward, Helen
dd700fa5-647f-4916-aa50-6c0b3026f961
Darzi, Ara
9d83b585-1f16-488c-9fd3-fa750c06247b
Riley, Steven
d55dfb14-7830-4374-bdac-0fb6d5ea8ed2
Robson, Samuel C
84ae3cc8-7d99-4f25-a4cf-9c1ccb0c76d4
Loman, Nicholas J
7c0b912a-a6e8-42c6-94dd-17103158c81b
Connor, Thomas R
0f6acaa2-fd86-4ab0-bd67-c93d071f428c
Golubchik, Tanya
49b63464-056c-4ecd-95a3-49f0536ff9cd
Martinez Nunez, Rocio T
a6069f08-55cf-4477-b895-9c4fdd2ee5ee
Saeed, Kordo
87cb67e5-71e8-4759-bf23-2ea00ebd8b39
Prieto, Jacqui A
47dd42cd-35d5-4ece-8fc6-fdb8fe1f01cc
Shepherd, James G
c9084ea0-50a7-4518-b418-97c7cd76f65d
Parker, Matthew D
aa66f59f-cd58-4042-a6d1-852920c50558
Simpson, David A
43500f4b-1c1c-4aff-a133-c7d4e808dc70
Jones, Christopher R
e705c242-4dd2-42b2-a8d3-d25ef5b6c954
Holmes, Christopher
8e1a791b-0802-4b43-885a-f7511deb8389
Williams, Thomas
53e61b55-4405-4b54-bb24-a327d0df8825
Moore, Christopher
eedc2ea1-5a18-44f3-9004-70e0b1cad4e8
Paul, Hannah
f4f94849-f7f5-4501-8b1f-3c97938b86c2
Williams, Charlotte A
2f3c5203-6fbe-432d-a2ad-f039983069e4
Taylor, Sarah
5ced0ca3-e157-4d05-b295-9e67d2b61364
Jones, Sophie
1c89b585-8110-498e-9fa1-7f53f08044bc
Jones, Rachel
fff3e3fc-48e9-4270-b4bd-a31b742a5dee
Young, Jamie
2a5248ba-553f-4697-bcbd-6f5136389b72
Patel, Minal
ab0c56c7-ac84-40ad-a97c-86c80bbbc24a
Smith, Louise
c2c9c240-b88f-4254-8fdd-83f091365c9e
Partridge, David G
5ef69aca-58ec-4e36-815b-d301ff7845e5
Harrison, James W
3bf4b4aa-9186-45bb-9888-87bf46284172
Williams, David
c9ded967-198f-4c26-96b1-8c03d7d26445
Pearson, Clare
0ce7f9f0-7648-46c8-b50d-6eea4607d228
Gregory, Richard
cd7b374f-7b75-4410-87f5-7b35a7c41405
Baker, David J
9f49a83c-ea97-4ef1-8850-260c7ac2f881
Tucker, Rachel M
5703a22a-d006-49e5-a9ef-831945828f0f
Brown, Rebecca
a4912e7b-0056-4d4d-843d-3baf69f97f58

COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium11‡ (2021) Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant. Science (New York, N.Y.), 374 (6574), [eabl9551]. (doi:10.1126/science.abl9551).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries as a result of the Delta variant. We assessed reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction swab positivity in the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. During June and July 2021, we observed sustained exponential growth with an average doubling time of 25 days, driven by complete replacement of the Alpha variant by Delta and by high prevalence at younger, less-vaccinated ages. Prevalence among unvaccinated people [1.21% (95% credible interval 1.03%, 1.41%)] was three times that among double-vaccinated eople [0.40%(95% credible interval 0.34%, 0.48%]. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ∼50% and ∼60% during this period in England. Increased socialmixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.

This record has no associated files available for download.

More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 2 November 2021
Published date: 2 November 2021
Additional Information: Publisher Copyright: © 2021 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
Learn more about Medicine research Learn more about Electronics & Computer Science research Learn more about Institute for Life Sciences research Learn more about History research Learn more about Ocean and Earth Science research Learn more about School of Physics and Astronomy research

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 452292
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/452292
DOI: doi:10.1126/science.abl9551
ISSN: 0036-8075
PURE UUID: 89ea9693-8ba2-4dba-8202-c068f8b0b2c1
ORCID for Kordo Saeed: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-0123-0302
ORCID for Jacqui A Prieto: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5524-6775
ORCID for James W Harrison: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3643-0489
ORCID for David Williams: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-7361-0246
ORCID for Rebecca Brown: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5825-6859

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 03 Dec 2021 17:32
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:56

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Paul Elliott
Author: David Haw
Author: Haowei Wang
Author: Oliver Eales
Author: Caroline E Walters
Author: Kylie E C Ainslie
Author: Christina Atchison
Author: Claudio Fronterre
Author: Peter J Diggle
Author: Andrew J Page
Author: Alexander J Trotter
Author: Sophie J Prosolek
Author: Deborah Ashby
Author: Christl A Donnelly
Author: Wendy Barclay
Author: Graham Taylor
Author: Graham Cooke
Author: Helen Ward
Author: Ara Darzi
Author: Steven Riley
Author: Samuel C Robson
Author: Nicholas J Loman
Author: Thomas R Connor
Author: Tanya Golubchik
Author: Rocio T Martinez Nunez
Author: Kordo Saeed ORCID iD
Author: Jacqui A Prieto ORCID iD
Author: James G Shepherd
Author: Matthew D Parker
Author: David A Simpson
Author: Christopher R Jones
Author: Christopher Holmes
Author: Thomas Williams
Author: Christopher Moore
Author: Hannah Paul
Author: Charlotte A Williams
Author: Sarah Taylor
Author: Sophie Jones
Author: Rachel Jones
Author: Jamie Young
Author: Minal Patel
Author: Louise Smith
Author: David G Partridge
Author: James W Harrison ORCID iD
Author: David Williams ORCID iD
Author: Clare Pearson
Author: Richard Gregory
Author: David J Baker
Author: Rachel M Tucker
Author: Rebecca Brown ORCID iD
Corporate Author: COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium11‡

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Library staff additional information
Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×