An improved definition of official excess winter mortality statistics as the basis for detailed analysis and monitoring
An improved definition of official excess winter mortality statistics as the basis for detailed analysis and monitoring
In official statistics, excess winter mortality, the number of additional deaths in a winter period, is typically defined as the difference between mortality in a winter period relative to the nonwinter periods before and after. We note two limitations of this approach: (1) the data for the period after winter is available only later, so estimates of excess winter mortality are not timely; (2) unusually high or low numbers of deaths in the non-winter periods can affect estimates. We propose an alternative statistic based on the application of standard seasonal adjustment procedures. We compare the approaches and present some illustrative analyses. The new statistic provides a more objective and timely official series, but is susceptible to revisions, which are shown to be small in practice. We recommend it as the basis of more detailed monitoring and modelling.
Excess winter mortality, seasonal adjustment, time series decomposition
43-59
Smith, Paul A.
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Nikolova, Atanaska S.
e38c1182-2471-46b1-b747-4382e749fc53
Elliott, Duncan
0ff1b380-a7d3-44d7-b7cf-35fb02077d65
11 May 2022
Smith, Paul A.
a2548525-4f99-4baf-a4d0-2b216cce059c
Nikolova, Atanaska S.
e38c1182-2471-46b1-b747-4382e749fc53
Elliott, Duncan
0ff1b380-a7d3-44d7-b7cf-35fb02077d65
Smith, Paul A., Nikolova, Atanaska S. and Elliott, Duncan
(2022)
An improved definition of official excess winter mortality statistics as the basis for detailed analysis and monitoring.
Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 46 (1), .
(doi:10.3233/JEM-210482).
Abstract
In official statistics, excess winter mortality, the number of additional deaths in a winter period, is typically defined as the difference between mortality in a winter period relative to the nonwinter periods before and after. We note two limitations of this approach: (1) the data for the period after winter is available only later, so estimates of excess winter mortality are not timely; (2) unusually high or low numbers of deaths in the non-winter periods can affect estimates. We propose an alternative statistic based on the application of standard seasonal adjustment procedures. We compare the approaches and present some illustrative analyses. The new statistic provides a more objective and timely official series, but is susceptible to revisions, which are shown to be small in practice. We recommend it as the basis of more detailed monitoring and modelling.
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Accepted/In Press date: 26 September 2021
e-pub ahead of print date: 28 January 2022
Published date: 11 May 2022
Additional Information:
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 - The authors. Published by IOS Press.
Keywords:
Excess winter mortality, seasonal adjustment, time series decomposition
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 452506
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/452506
ISSN: 0747-9662
PURE UUID: 7bf9f7c0-28a6-4cc0-9cc0-94be1f6adb4b
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Date deposited: 11 Dec 2021 11:25
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:36
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Author:
Atanaska S. Nikolova
Author:
Duncan Elliott
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