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Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting: theory and practice
Forecasting: theory and practice
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
review; encyclopedia; methods; applications; principles; time series; prediction
0169-2070
705-871
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Arenas, Juan Ramón Trapero
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Petropoulos, Fotios, Apiletti, Daniele, Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, Babai, Mohamed Zied, Barrow, Devon K., Taieb, Souhaib Ben, Bergmeir, Christoph, Bessa, Ricardo J., Bijak, Jakub, Boylan, John E., Browell, Jethro, Carnevale, Claudio, Castle, Jennifer L., Cirillo, Pasquale, Clements, Michael P., Cordeiro, Clara, Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino, Baets, Shari De, Dokumentov, Alexander, Ellison, Joanne, Fiszeder, Piotr, Franses, Philip Hans, Frazier, David T., Gilliland, Michael, Gönül, M. Sinan, Goodwin, Paul, Grossi, Luigi, Grushka-Cockayne, Yael, Guidolin, Mariangela, Guidolin, Massimo, Gunter, Ulrich, Guo, Xiaojia, Guseo, Renato, Harvey, Nigel, Hendry, David F., Hollyman, Ross, Januschowski, Tim, Jeon, Jooyoung, Jose, Victor Richmond R., Kang, Yanfei, Koehler, Anne B., Kolassa, Stephan, Kourentzes, Nikolaos, Leva, Sonia, Li, Feng, Litsiou, Konstantia, Makridakis, Spyros, Martin, Gael M., Martinez, Andrew B., Meeran, Sheik, Modis, Theodore, Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, Önkal, Dilek, Paccagnini, Alessia, Panagiotelis, Anastasios, Panapakidis, Ioannis, Pavía, Jose M., Pedio, Manuela, Pedregal, Diego J., Pinson, Pierre, Ramos, Patrícia, Rapach, David E., Reade, J. James, Rostami-Tabar, Bahman, Rubaszek, Michał, Sermpinis, Georgios, Shang, Han Lin, Spiliotis, Evangelos, Syntetos, Aris A., Talagala, Priyanga Dilini, Talagala, Thiyanga S., Tashman, Len, Thomakos, Dimitrios, Thorarinsdottir, Thordis, Todini, Ezio, Arenas, Juan Ramón Trapero, Wang, Xiaoqian, Winkler, Robert L., Yusupova, Alisa and Ziel, Florian (2022) Forecasting: theory and practice. International Journal of Forecasting, 38 (3), 705-871. (doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001).

Record type: Review

Abstract

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

Text
2012.03854v3 - Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 3 November 2021
Published date: 1 July 2022
Additional Information: Funding Information: David F. Hendry gratefully acknowledges funding from the Robertson Foundation, USA and Nuffield College, UK . Funding Information: Mariangela Guidolin acknowledges the support of the University of Padua, Italy , through the grant BIRD188753/18 . Funding Information: Piotr Fiszeder was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland project number 2016/21/B/HS4/00662 entitled “Multivariate volatility models - the application of low and high prices”. Funding Information: David T. Frazier has been supported by Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Grants DP170100729 and DP200101414 , and ARC Early Career Researcher Award DE200101070 . Funding Information: Joanne Ellison acknowledges the support of the ESRC FertilityTrends project (grant number ES/S009477/1) and the ESRC Centre for Population Change (grant number ES/R009139/1) . Funding Information: Clara Cordeiro is partially financed by national funds through FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal under the project UIDB/00006/2020 . Funding Information: Yanfei Kang acknowledges the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (number 11701022 ) and the National Key Research and Development Program, China (number 2019YFB1404600 ). Funding Information: Shari De Baets was funded by the FWO Research Foundation Flanders . Funding Information: Fotios Petropoulos would like to thank all the co-authors of this article for their very enthusiastic response and participation in this initiave. He would also like to thank Pierre Pinson for inviting this paper to be submitted to the International Journal of Forecasting. The constructive comments and suggestions from this advisory board were vital in improving the paper. He also thanks Artur Tarassow for offering a list of Gretl's software functionalities. Jakub Bijak's work received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, grant 870299 QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy. Clara Cordeiro is partially financed by national funds through FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal under the project UIDB/00006/2020. Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira acknowledges the support of the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Level Personnel (CAPES), Brazil – grant number 001, the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) – grant number 307403/2019-0, and the Carlos Chagas Filho Research Support Foundation of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ) – grant numbers 202.673/2018 and 211.086/2019. Shari De Baets was funded by the FWO Research Foundation Flanders. Joanne Ellison acknowledges the support of the ESRC FertilityTrends project (grant number ES/S009477/1) and the ESRC Centre for Population Change (grant number ES/R009139/1). Piotr Fiszeder was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland project number 2016/21/B/HS4/00662 entitled “Multivariate volatility models - the application of low and high prices”. David T. Frazier has been supported by Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Grants DP170100729 and DP200101414, and ARC Early Career Researcher AwardDE200101070. Mariangela Guidolin acknowledges the support of the University of Padua, Italy, through the grant BIRD188753/18. David F. Hendry gratefully acknowledges funding from the Robertson Foundation, USA and Nuffield College, UK. Yanfei Kang acknowledges the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (number 11701022) and the National Key Research and Development Program, China (number 2019YFB1404600). Stephan Kolassa would like to thank Tilmann Gneiting for some very helpful tips. Gael M. Martin has been supported by Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Grants DP170100729 and DP200101414. Alessia Paccagnini acknowledges the research support by COST Action “Fintech and Artificial Intelligence in Finance - Towards a transparent financial industry” (FinAI)CA19130. Jose M. Pavía acknowledges the support of the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities and the Spanish Agency of Research, co-funded with FEDER funds, grant ECO2017-87245-R, and of Consellería d'Innovació, Universitats, Ciència i Societat Digital, Generalitat Valenciana – grant number AICO/2019/053. Diego J. Pedregal and Juan Ramon Trapero Arenas acknowledge the support of the European Regional Development Fund and Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha (JCCM/FEDER, UE) under the project SBPLY/19/180501/000151 and by the Vicerrectorado de Investigación y Política Científica from UCLM, Spain through the research group fund program PREDILAB; DOCM 26/02/2020 [2020-GRIN-28770]. David E. Rapach thanks Ilias Filippou and Guofu Zhou for valuable comments. J. James Reade and Han Lin Shang acknowledge Shixuan Wang for his constructive comments. Michał Rubaszek is thankful for the financial support provided by the National Science Centre, Poland, grant No. 2019/33/B/HS4/01923 entitled “Predictive content of equilibrium exchange rate models”. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of their affiliated institutions and organisations. Funding Information: Michał Rubaszek is thankful for the financial support provided by the National Science Centre, Poland , grant No. 2019/33/B/HS4/01923 entitled “Predictive content of equilibrium exchange rate models”. Funding Information: Jose M. Pavía acknowledges the support of the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities and the Spanish Agency of Research, co-funded with FEDER funds , grant ECO2017-87245-R , and of Consellería d’Innovació, Universitats, Ciència i Societat Digital, Generalitat Valenciana – grant number AICO/2019/053 . Funding Information: Alessia Paccagnini acknowledges the research support by COST Action “Fintech and Artificial Intelligence in Finance - Towards a transparent financial industry” (FinAI) CA19130 . Funding Information: Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira acknowledges the support of the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Level Personnel (CAPES), Brazil – grant number 001 , the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) – grant number 307403/2019-0 , and the Carlos Chagas Filho Research Support Foundation of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ) – grant numbers 202.673/2018 and 211.086/2019 . Funding Information: Diego J. Pedregal and Juan Ramon Trapero Arenas acknowledge the support of the European Regional Development Fund and Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha (JCCM/FEDER, UE) under the project SBPLY/19/180501/000151 and by the Vicerrectorado de Investigación Política Científica from UCLM, Spain through the research group fund program PREDILAB; DOCM 26/02/2020 [2020-GRIN-28770]. Funding Information: Jakub Bijak’s work received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme , grant 870299 QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s)
Keywords: review; encyclopedia; methods; applications; principles; time series; prediction

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 452676
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/452676
ISSN: 0169-2070
PURE UUID: d8e712f7-0af8-4a74-878c-133843ae5d3e
ORCID for Jakub Bijak: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2563-5040
ORCID for Joanne Ellison: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-6973-8797

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Date deposited: 11 Dec 2021 11:36
Last modified: 21 Nov 2024 03:00

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Contributors

Author: Fotios Petropoulos
Author: Daniele Apiletti
Author: Vassilios Assimakopoulos
Author: Mohamed Zied Babai
Author: Devon K. Barrow
Author: Souhaib Ben Taieb
Author: Christoph Bergmeir
Author: Ricardo J. Bessa
Author: Jakub Bijak ORCID iD
Author: John E. Boylan
Author: Jethro Browell
Author: Claudio Carnevale
Author: Jennifer L. Castle
Author: Pasquale Cirillo
Author: Michael P. Clements
Author: Clara Cordeiro
Author: Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira
Author: Shari De Baets
Author: Alexander Dokumentov
Author: Joanne Ellison ORCID iD
Author: Piotr Fiszeder
Author: Philip Hans Franses
Author: David T. Frazier
Author: Michael Gilliland
Author: M. Sinan Gönül
Author: Paul Goodwin
Author: Luigi Grossi
Author: Yael Grushka-Cockayne
Author: Mariangela Guidolin
Author: Massimo Guidolin
Author: Ulrich Gunter
Author: Xiaojia Guo
Author: Renato Guseo
Author: Nigel Harvey
Author: David F. Hendry
Author: Ross Hollyman
Author: Tim Januschowski
Author: Jooyoung Jeon
Author: Victor Richmond R. Jose
Author: Yanfei Kang
Author: Anne B. Koehler
Author: Stephan Kolassa
Author: Nikolaos Kourentzes
Author: Sonia Leva
Author: Feng Li
Author: Konstantia Litsiou
Author: Spyros Makridakis
Author: Gael M. Martin
Author: Andrew B. Martinez
Author: Sheik Meeran
Author: Theodore Modis
Author: Konstantinos Nikolopoulos
Author: Dilek Önkal
Author: Alessia Paccagnini
Author: Anastasios Panagiotelis
Author: Ioannis Panapakidis
Author: Jose M. Pavía
Author: Manuela Pedio
Author: Diego J. Pedregal
Author: Pierre Pinson
Author: Patrícia Ramos
Author: David E. Rapach
Author: J. James Reade
Author: Bahman Rostami-Tabar
Author: Michał Rubaszek
Author: Georgios Sermpinis
Author: Han Lin Shang
Author: Evangelos Spiliotis
Author: Aris A. Syntetos
Author: Priyanga Dilini Talagala
Author: Thiyanga S. Talagala
Author: Len Tashman
Author: Dimitrios Thomakos
Author: Thordis Thorarinsdottir
Author: Ezio Todini
Author: Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas
Author: Xiaoqian Wang
Author: Robert L. Winkler
Author: Alisa Yusupova
Author: Florian Ziel

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