The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting: theory and practice
Forecasting: theory and practice
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
review; encyclopedia; methods; applications; principles; time series; prediction
0169-2070
Petropoulos, Fotios
c37a8f6e-d733-4e2c-9c9d-3827c7adea6d
Apiletti, Daniele
0eaf5793-5b61-41d4-8f18-f86c9e5086b1
Assimakopoulos, Vassilios
6b875075-02f8-4642-b798-2d37687d4d33
Babai, Mohamed Zied
0eaa0f09-1fd1-4b83-a2c2-9eedddbebe14
Barrow, Devon K.
dd6fe866-20d5-40ec-9c23-e695d34a11b3
Taieb, Souhaib Ben
001603e0-caf2-43f1-9334-071f6600b4fa
Bergmeir, Christoph
67807f69-17f6-4273-9441-d3c3869e956a
Bessa, Ricardo J.
cbd75570-4288-4b19-b030-942a3102f4e4
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Boylan, John E.
2d949b18-f993-436b-ae66-d8502cd7d41c
Browell, Jethro
ec6b842d-9abf-4e61-bef2-17ab9b9c1880
Carnevale, Claudio
5f2b5d73-a55a-4831-9756-d571e1bc74f0
Castle, Jennifer L.
87ebdcf0-b961-45fd-9575-fc996feab7d2
Cirillo, Pasquale
ab3290f6-79d6-4f08-adcb-829064105edf
Clements, Michael P.
70afd671-3c77-4466-b133-0ad0ea2a0e2d
Cordeiro, Clara
3527d41c-50eb-4481-a84a-19faf0d39a7f
Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino
8d1f201f-bc61-42be-afb5-b242a8989f3d
Baets, Shari De
8f1a44cc-2795-4cd8-a10d-bced5506f917
Dokumentov, Alexander
f572011c-bd01-4561-a6dc-b3c5647ce569
Ellison, Joanne
d1560ac9-2c6c-49e8-b5c4-aa2258624e97
Fiszeder, Piotr
37c59bd4-3371-4c37-a234-bc1d50ba3c95
Franses, Philip Hans
c6185354-74c4-48ad-b1ee-c4243234c09f
Frazier, David T.
9e68845f-7e48-4374-a1c0-8dc1e1d50f6f
Gilliland, Michael
9c8d3f81-2429-4638-967f-5af040be9030
Gönül, M. Sinan
c0df84c1-12b5-49fe-964e-e2f60d073eab
Goodwin, Paul
778fe1b0-5af1-4eb4-8a2a-254c467d6338
Grossi, Luigi
b15811fe-6134-4e37-bfb1-94455c8c7f1d
Grushka-Cockayne, Yael
b65b471c-94ac-4126-8fed-4778e5508ed9
Guidolin, Mariangela
fe5e792b-9a21-46ef-be3a-60e2e7c3a650
Guidolin, Massimo
1f696780-7992-4fb1-b44b-1c7fab5e33bc
Gunter, Ulrich
925c3dfb-4f2e-4f35-9671-9182af0ff939
Guo, Xiaojia
467a0a5a-cdd5-43ea-94ed-08fbd1b3ab4c
Guseo, Renato
9ca9544a-e5c6-4b76-b33e-47d13b5cab14
Harvey, Nigel
2d45db27-4bde-456e-96f6-254a34f09d6f
Hendry, David F.
9c76f1f4-5773-4a45-9778-6ea40af72958
Hollyman, Ross
245d69ad-896c-4b89-8a2a-59ddf0a64cf7
Januschowski, Tim
ac27d179-8ab7-4ae7-aa66-6f032a06b0c2
Jeon, Jooyoung
f2bf2bfa-5ddf-4197-90df-b8b87488e9fa
Jose, Victor Richmond R.
21222f18-d1b2-4603-aa00-9809b55d1c6d
Kang, Yanfei
420e36e8-d2cf-4871-9510-bd20a96f24ff
Koehler, Anne B.
104ef2e7-cbf7-4e7e-88d8-0e1038482de5
Kolassa, Stephan
ab270138-f715-43d4-a010-77f175afc47a
Kourentzes, Nikolaos
07af99d9-126c-4701-828d-ef09425bc4de
Leva, Sonia
3d60b864-561e-49fe-86db-86d87e836024
Li, Feng
e06a32f5-0883-4a8f-a6ba-385a9df3ecfc
Litsiou, Konstantia
70f1b0bc-c11b-4f74-be38-87e2b9bb1be7
Makridakis, Spyros
411ddad6-2be8-4296-b85c-32f079b40a97
Martin, Gael M.
be47f2be-25f9-4ad4-9f7c-5bb44d3b43b3
Martinez, Andrew B.
38229bf4-9b18-4097-bdd4-30aef6fb8ac3
Meeran, Sheik
305f69f5-f4d2-4b38-aeca-0a3a877ab4ee
Modis, Theodore
b12db8e9-cd69-456f-a00d-804a8ca96ef1
Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos
cc4150ec-e060-492b-a6c8-4e8de66fe8e7
Önkal, Dilek
72e999e6-0315-4a86-8716-47d68d1e5a6b
Paccagnini, Alessia
1c4806f9-aa68-4476-8c7b-c7952281528d
Panagiotelis, Anastasios
360c55ef-54ff-44a2-9458-1e26a7ec6ce0
Panapakidis, Ioannis
1e7bf017-c208-4ab0-a03b-07ac05687068
Pavía, Jose M.
bcba0004-fd7b-4c5b-b448-dd9542786bf5
Pedio, Manuela
f399f1a2-10c6-4204-aa34-e4511989c401
Pedregal, Diego J.
70bea08f-d772-4d5b-b944-5db621749d8c
Pinson, Pierre
3a4044c8-0efd-47e2-ba27-9959db9c6a72
Ramos, Patrícia
de86d39e-74c8-46ec-a669-f94d81abe6d5
Rapach, David E.
bb32786b-b635-4856-8599-3105996c61de
Reade, J. James
b3f84bdc-c44a-4823-9f61-b7635622928f
Rostami-Tabar, Bahman
69dd5cf7-65c9-4d8f-b9d5-163c5c0ce536
Rubaszek, Michał
a46e396f-cd31-4abc-967d-ab217986ca75
Sermpinis, Georgios
d8497649-1c4d-4b93-af81-57560c118690
Shang, Han Lin
1625ecc8-1ab1-4ef8-b87e-e5a2382d34c5
Spiliotis, Evangelos
2bae7505-afec-4e90-a3a0-12d3544e9524
Syntetos, Aris A.
5cd3577f-6a08-4e44-85a6-6c469b6cecb4
Talagala, Priyanga Dilini
578e9bd8-1721-4bab-9b26-0473243aaac1
Talagala, Thiyanga S.
6c5f196f-3fb2-4ab3-a9e8-511d5154e160
Tashman, Len
61ececad-0893-432e-871c-6e63bcf426d3
Thomakos, Dimitrios
4537888d-de84-43b5-b0d5-2605654ba1aa
Thorarinsdottir, Thordis
19bf1695-725b-42b1-8094-a488250e9a93
Todini, Ezio
f98b1572-1db5-4468-8f4a-e6926fa05303
Arenas, Juan Ramón Trapero
6e67b312-8dc8-469c-8d40-15591a3894b7
Wang, Xiaoqian
3bcf8536-d52b-4d00-8380-859bebb6ee6a
Winkler, Robert L.
ad05770f-95d5-4dca-9751-fa2ed04bc024
Yusupova, Alisa
1f1a309a-e24e-4d5e-8181-4163a33914e9
Ziel, Florian
fbca5721-c9df-4aa8-895e-ba96e842bafe
Petropoulos, Fotios
c37a8f6e-d733-4e2c-9c9d-3827c7adea6d
Apiletti, Daniele
0eaf5793-5b61-41d4-8f18-f86c9e5086b1
Assimakopoulos, Vassilios
6b875075-02f8-4642-b798-2d37687d4d33
Babai, Mohamed Zied
0eaa0f09-1fd1-4b83-a2c2-9eedddbebe14
Barrow, Devon K.
dd6fe866-20d5-40ec-9c23-e695d34a11b3
Taieb, Souhaib Ben
001603e0-caf2-43f1-9334-071f6600b4fa
Bergmeir, Christoph
67807f69-17f6-4273-9441-d3c3869e956a
Bessa, Ricardo J.
cbd75570-4288-4b19-b030-942a3102f4e4
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Boylan, John E.
2d949b18-f993-436b-ae66-d8502cd7d41c
Browell, Jethro
ec6b842d-9abf-4e61-bef2-17ab9b9c1880
Carnevale, Claudio
5f2b5d73-a55a-4831-9756-d571e1bc74f0
Castle, Jennifer L.
87ebdcf0-b961-45fd-9575-fc996feab7d2
Cirillo, Pasquale
ab3290f6-79d6-4f08-adcb-829064105edf
Clements, Michael P.
70afd671-3c77-4466-b133-0ad0ea2a0e2d
Cordeiro, Clara
3527d41c-50eb-4481-a84a-19faf0d39a7f
Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino
8d1f201f-bc61-42be-afb5-b242a8989f3d
Baets, Shari De
8f1a44cc-2795-4cd8-a10d-bced5506f917
Dokumentov, Alexander
f572011c-bd01-4561-a6dc-b3c5647ce569
Ellison, Joanne
d1560ac9-2c6c-49e8-b5c4-aa2258624e97
Fiszeder, Piotr
37c59bd4-3371-4c37-a234-bc1d50ba3c95
Franses, Philip Hans
c6185354-74c4-48ad-b1ee-c4243234c09f
Frazier, David T.
9e68845f-7e48-4374-a1c0-8dc1e1d50f6f
Gilliland, Michael
9c8d3f81-2429-4638-967f-5af040be9030
Gönül, M. Sinan
c0df84c1-12b5-49fe-964e-e2f60d073eab
Goodwin, Paul
778fe1b0-5af1-4eb4-8a2a-254c467d6338
Grossi, Luigi
b15811fe-6134-4e37-bfb1-94455c8c7f1d
Grushka-Cockayne, Yael
b65b471c-94ac-4126-8fed-4778e5508ed9
Guidolin, Mariangela
fe5e792b-9a21-46ef-be3a-60e2e7c3a650
Guidolin, Massimo
1f696780-7992-4fb1-b44b-1c7fab5e33bc
Gunter, Ulrich
925c3dfb-4f2e-4f35-9671-9182af0ff939
Guo, Xiaojia
467a0a5a-cdd5-43ea-94ed-08fbd1b3ab4c
Guseo, Renato
9ca9544a-e5c6-4b76-b33e-47d13b5cab14
Harvey, Nigel
2d45db27-4bde-456e-96f6-254a34f09d6f
Hendry, David F.
9c76f1f4-5773-4a45-9778-6ea40af72958
Hollyman, Ross
245d69ad-896c-4b89-8a2a-59ddf0a64cf7
Januschowski, Tim
ac27d179-8ab7-4ae7-aa66-6f032a06b0c2
Jeon, Jooyoung
f2bf2bfa-5ddf-4197-90df-b8b87488e9fa
Jose, Victor Richmond R.
21222f18-d1b2-4603-aa00-9809b55d1c6d
Kang, Yanfei
420e36e8-d2cf-4871-9510-bd20a96f24ff
Koehler, Anne B.
104ef2e7-cbf7-4e7e-88d8-0e1038482de5
Kolassa, Stephan
ab270138-f715-43d4-a010-77f175afc47a
Kourentzes, Nikolaos
07af99d9-126c-4701-828d-ef09425bc4de
Leva, Sonia
3d60b864-561e-49fe-86db-86d87e836024
Li, Feng
e06a32f5-0883-4a8f-a6ba-385a9df3ecfc
Litsiou, Konstantia
70f1b0bc-c11b-4f74-be38-87e2b9bb1be7
Makridakis, Spyros
411ddad6-2be8-4296-b85c-32f079b40a97
Martin, Gael M.
be47f2be-25f9-4ad4-9f7c-5bb44d3b43b3
Martinez, Andrew B.
38229bf4-9b18-4097-bdd4-30aef6fb8ac3
Meeran, Sheik
305f69f5-f4d2-4b38-aeca-0a3a877ab4ee
Modis, Theodore
b12db8e9-cd69-456f-a00d-804a8ca96ef1
Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos
cc4150ec-e060-492b-a6c8-4e8de66fe8e7
Önkal, Dilek
72e999e6-0315-4a86-8716-47d68d1e5a6b
Paccagnini, Alessia
1c4806f9-aa68-4476-8c7b-c7952281528d
Panagiotelis, Anastasios
360c55ef-54ff-44a2-9458-1e26a7ec6ce0
Panapakidis, Ioannis
1e7bf017-c208-4ab0-a03b-07ac05687068
Pavía, Jose M.
bcba0004-fd7b-4c5b-b448-dd9542786bf5
Pedio, Manuela
f399f1a2-10c6-4204-aa34-e4511989c401
Pedregal, Diego J.
70bea08f-d772-4d5b-b944-5db621749d8c
Pinson, Pierre
3a4044c8-0efd-47e2-ba27-9959db9c6a72
Ramos, Patrícia
de86d39e-74c8-46ec-a669-f94d81abe6d5
Rapach, David E.
bb32786b-b635-4856-8599-3105996c61de
Reade, J. James
b3f84bdc-c44a-4823-9f61-b7635622928f
Rostami-Tabar, Bahman
69dd5cf7-65c9-4d8f-b9d5-163c5c0ce536
Rubaszek, Michał
a46e396f-cd31-4abc-967d-ab217986ca75
Sermpinis, Georgios
d8497649-1c4d-4b93-af81-57560c118690
Shang, Han Lin
1625ecc8-1ab1-4ef8-b87e-e5a2382d34c5
Spiliotis, Evangelos
2bae7505-afec-4e90-a3a0-12d3544e9524
Syntetos, Aris A.
5cd3577f-6a08-4e44-85a6-6c469b6cecb4
Talagala, Priyanga Dilini
578e9bd8-1721-4bab-9b26-0473243aaac1
Talagala, Thiyanga S.
6c5f196f-3fb2-4ab3-a9e8-511d5154e160
Tashman, Len
61ececad-0893-432e-871c-6e63bcf426d3
Thomakos, Dimitrios
4537888d-de84-43b5-b0d5-2605654ba1aa
Thorarinsdottir, Thordis
19bf1695-725b-42b1-8094-a488250e9a93
Todini, Ezio
f98b1572-1db5-4468-8f4a-e6926fa05303
Arenas, Juan Ramón Trapero
6e67b312-8dc8-469c-8d40-15591a3894b7
Wang, Xiaoqian
3bcf8536-d52b-4d00-8380-859bebb6ee6a
Winkler, Robert L.
ad05770f-95d5-4dca-9751-fa2ed04bc024
Yusupova, Alisa
1f1a309a-e24e-4d5e-8181-4163a33914e9
Ziel, Florian
fbca5721-c9df-4aa8-895e-ba96e842bafe

Petropoulos, Fotios, Apiletti, Daniele, Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, Babai, Mohamed Zied, Barrow, Devon K., Taieb, Souhaib Ben, Bergmeir, Christoph, Bessa, Ricardo J., Bijak, Jakub, Boylan, John E., Browell, Jethro, Carnevale, Claudio, Castle, Jennifer L., Cirillo, Pasquale, Clements, Michael P., Cordeiro, Clara, Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino, Baets, Shari De, Dokumentov, Alexander, Ellison, Joanne, Fiszeder, Piotr, Franses, Philip Hans, Frazier, David T., Gilliland, Michael, Gönül, M. Sinan, Goodwin, Paul, Grossi, Luigi, Grushka-Cockayne, Yael, Guidolin, Mariangela, Guidolin, Massimo, Gunter, Ulrich, Guo, Xiaojia, Guseo, Renato, Harvey, Nigel, Hendry, David F., Hollyman, Ross, Januschowski, Tim, Jeon, Jooyoung, Jose, Victor Richmond R., Kang, Yanfei, Koehler, Anne B., Kolassa, Stephan, Kourentzes, Nikolaos, Leva, Sonia, Li, Feng, Litsiou, Konstantia, Makridakis, Spyros, Martin, Gael M., Martinez, Andrew B., Meeran, Sheik, Modis, Theodore, Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, Önkal, Dilek, Paccagnini, Alessia, Panagiotelis, Anastasios, Panapakidis, Ioannis, Pavía, Jose M., Pedio, Manuela, Pedregal, Diego J., Pinson, Pierre, Ramos, Patrícia, Rapach, David E., Reade, J. James, Rostami-Tabar, Bahman, Rubaszek, Michał, Sermpinis, Georgios, Shang, Han Lin, Spiliotis, Evangelos, Syntetos, Aris A., Talagala, Priyanga Dilini, Talagala, Thiyanga S., Tashman, Len, Thomakos, Dimitrios, Thorarinsdottir, Thordis, Todini, Ezio, Arenas, Juan Ramón Trapero, Wang, Xiaoqian, Winkler, Robert L., Yusupova, Alisa and Ziel, Florian (2022) Forecasting: theory and practice. International Journal of Forecasting. (doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

Text
2012.03854v3 - Accepted Manuscript
Download (5MB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 3 November 2021
Published date: 20 January 2022
Keywords: review; encyclopedia; methods; applications; principles; time series; prediction

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 452676
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/452676
ISSN: 0169-2070
PURE UUID: d8e712f7-0af8-4a74-878c-133843ae5d3e
ORCID for Jakub Bijak: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2563-5040
ORCID for Joanne Ellison: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-6973-8797

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 11 Dec 2021 11:36
Last modified: 25 Jun 2022 02:03

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Fotios Petropoulos
Author: Daniele Apiletti
Author: Vassilios Assimakopoulos
Author: Mohamed Zied Babai
Author: Devon K. Barrow
Author: Souhaib Ben Taieb
Author: Christoph Bergmeir
Author: Ricardo J. Bessa
Author: Jakub Bijak ORCID iD
Author: John E. Boylan
Author: Jethro Browell
Author: Claudio Carnevale
Author: Jennifer L. Castle
Author: Pasquale Cirillo
Author: Michael P. Clements
Author: Clara Cordeiro
Author: Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira
Author: Shari De Baets
Author: Alexander Dokumentov
Author: Joanne Ellison ORCID iD
Author: Piotr Fiszeder
Author: Philip Hans Franses
Author: David T. Frazier
Author: Michael Gilliland
Author: M. Sinan Gönül
Author: Paul Goodwin
Author: Luigi Grossi
Author: Yael Grushka-Cockayne
Author: Mariangela Guidolin
Author: Massimo Guidolin
Author: Ulrich Gunter
Author: Xiaojia Guo
Author: Renato Guseo
Author: Nigel Harvey
Author: David F. Hendry
Author: Ross Hollyman
Author: Tim Januschowski
Author: Jooyoung Jeon
Author: Victor Richmond R. Jose
Author: Yanfei Kang
Author: Anne B. Koehler
Author: Stephan Kolassa
Author: Nikolaos Kourentzes
Author: Sonia Leva
Author: Feng Li
Author: Konstantia Litsiou
Author: Spyros Makridakis
Author: Gael M. Martin
Author: Andrew B. Martinez
Author: Sheik Meeran
Author: Theodore Modis
Author: Konstantinos Nikolopoulos
Author: Dilek Önkal
Author: Alessia Paccagnini
Author: Anastasios Panagiotelis
Author: Ioannis Panapakidis
Author: Jose M. Pavía
Author: Manuela Pedio
Author: Diego J. Pedregal
Author: Pierre Pinson
Author: Patrícia Ramos
Author: David E. Rapach
Author: J. James Reade
Author: Bahman Rostami-Tabar
Author: Michał Rubaszek
Author: Georgios Sermpinis
Author: Han Lin Shang
Author: Evangelos Spiliotis
Author: Aris A. Syntetos
Author: Priyanga Dilini Talagala
Author: Thiyanga S. Talagala
Author: Len Tashman
Author: Dimitrios Thomakos
Author: Thordis Thorarinsdottir
Author: Ezio Todini
Author: Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas
Author: Xiaoqian Wang
Author: Robert L. Winkler
Author: Alisa Yusupova
Author: Florian Ziel

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×