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Impacts of worldwide individual non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission across waves and space

Impacts of worldwide individual non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission across waves and space
Impacts of worldwide individual non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission across waves and space
Governments worldwide have rapidly deployed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the effect of these individual NPI measures across space and time has yet to be sufficiently assessed, especially with the increase of policy fatigue and the urge for NPI relaxation in the vaccination era. Using the decay ratio in the suppression of COVID-19 infections and multi-source big data, we investigated the changing performance of different NPIs across waves from global and regional levels (in 133 countries) to national and subnational (in the United States of America [USA]) scales before the implementation of mass vaccination. The synergistic effectiveness of all NPIs for reducing COVID-19 infections declined along waves, from 95.4% in the first wave to 56.0% in the third wave recently at the global level and similarly from 83.3% to 58.7% at the USA national level, while it had fluctuating performance across waves on regional and subnational scales. Regardless of geographical scale, gathering restrictions and facial coverings played significant roles in epidemic mitigation before the vaccine rollout. Our findings have important implications for continued tailoring and implementation of NPI strategies, together with vaccination, to mitigate future COVID-19 waves, caused by new variants, and other emerging respiratory infectious diseases.
COVID-19, Big data, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Multi-scale, Effectiveness
0303-2434
Ge, Yong
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Zhang, Wen-Bin
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Liu, Haiyan
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Ruktanonchai, Corrine W.
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Hu, Maogui
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Wu, Xilin
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Song, Yongze
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Ruktanonchai, Nick W.
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Yan, Wei
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Cleary, Eimear
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Feng, Luzhao
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Li, Zhongjie
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Yang, Weizhong
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Liu, Mengxiao
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Wang, Jin-Feng
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Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Ge, Yong
f22fa40c-9a6a-456c-bdad-b322c3fd24ee
Zhang, Wen-Bin
a4ab325c-e9cb-4369-959b-25a3320bb4e3
Liu, Haiyan
aeca8fb6-ed13-471e-96ec-a33757a3b2e8
Ruktanonchai, Corrine W.
44e6fcd0-246b-480e-8940-9557dbb7c0cc
Hu, Maogui
f9d52bef-2c40-4831-9b90-72ecd8fe2758
Wu, Xilin
58bc70e9-e062-4a74-8b9c-d3212e505436
Song, Yongze
5b0e580c-c74f-49e2-a0a6-293e425c9b78
Ruktanonchai, Nick W.
fe68cb8d-3760-4955-99fa-47d43f86580a
Yan, Wei
8539c0c4-7fd5-4c72-8ca4-8587f34fe324
Cleary, Eimear
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Feng, Luzhao
5842cd78-bfa7-40d1-ae76-92ca4bf70c4d
Li, Zhongjie
f89a98f7-f6d3-4312-995a-bc658ae9a93f
Yang, Weizhong
65d18fbc-d752-42a7-ac38-01534ceda15c
Liu, Mengxiao
71362048-644e-4deb-a2c0-dfb09382eb32
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Wang, Jin-Feng
182865cd-7c4a-497c-ba7b-e39a593ab143
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001

Ge, Yong, Zhang, Wen-Bin, Liu, Haiyan, Ruktanonchai, Corrine W., Hu, Maogui, Wu, Xilin, Song, Yongze, Ruktanonchai, Nick W., Yan, Wei, Cleary, Eimear, Feng, Luzhao, Li, Zhongjie, Yang, Weizhong, Liu, Mengxiao, Tatem, Andrew J., Wang, Jin-Feng and Lai, Shengjie (2021) Impacts of worldwide individual non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission across waves and space. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 106.

Record type: Article

Abstract

Governments worldwide have rapidly deployed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the effect of these individual NPI measures across space and time has yet to be sufficiently assessed, especially with the increase of policy fatigue and the urge for NPI relaxation in the vaccination era. Using the decay ratio in the suppression of COVID-19 infections and multi-source big data, we investigated the changing performance of different NPIs across waves from global and regional levels (in 133 countries) to national and subnational (in the United States of America [USA]) scales before the implementation of mass vaccination. The synergistic effectiveness of all NPIs for reducing COVID-19 infections declined along waves, from 95.4% in the first wave to 56.0% in the third wave recently at the global level and similarly from 83.3% to 58.7% at the USA national level, while it had fluctuating performance across waves on regional and subnational scales. Regardless of geographical scale, gathering restrictions and facial coverings played significant roles in epidemic mitigation before the vaccine rollout. Our findings have important implications for continued tailoring and implementation of NPI strategies, together with vaccination, to mitigate future COVID-19 waves, caused by new variants, and other emerging respiratory infectious diseases.

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Submitted date: 28 August 2021
Accepted/In Press date: 10 December 2021
e-pub ahead of print date: 13 December 2021
Published date: 13 December 2021
Keywords: COVID-19, Big data, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Multi-scale, Effectiveness

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 453072
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/453072
ISSN: 0303-2434
PURE UUID: 0d7b3dfd-a92a-412f-adb0-2acd67818d37
ORCID for Wen-Bin Zhang: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9295-1019
ORCID for Eimear Cleary: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2549-8565
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X
ORCID for Shengjie Lai: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 07 Jan 2022 17:51
Last modified: 22 May 2024 02:05

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Contributors

Author: Yong Ge
Author: Wen-Bin Zhang ORCID iD
Author: Haiyan Liu
Author: Corrine W. Ruktanonchai
Author: Maogui Hu
Author: Xilin Wu
Author: Yongze Song
Author: Nick W. Ruktanonchai
Author: Wei Yan
Author: Eimear Cleary ORCID iD
Author: Luzhao Feng
Author: Zhongjie Li
Author: Weizhong Yang
Author: Mengxiao Liu
Author: Andrew J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: Jin-Feng Wang
Author: Shengjie Lai ORCID iD

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