The Incoming Influenza Season — China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, 2021–2022
The Incoming Influenza Season — China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, 2021–2022
Introduction
Seasonal influenza activity has declined globally since the widespread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. There has been scarce information to understand the future dynamics of influenza — and under different hypothesis on relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in particular — after the disruptions to seasonal patterns.
Methods
We collected data from public sources in China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and forecasted the influenza dynamics in the incoming 2021–2022 season under different NPIs. We considered Northern China and Southern China separately, due to the sharp difference in the patterns of seasonal influenza. For the United Kingdom, data were collected for England only.
Results
Compared to the epidemics in 2017–2019, longer and blunter influenza outbreaks could occur should NPIs be fully lifted, with percent positivity varying from 10.5 to 18.6 in the studying regions. The rebounds would be smaller if the mask-wearing intervention continued or the international mobility stayed low, but sharper if the mask-wearing intervention was lifted in the middle of influenza season. Further, influenza activity could stay low under a much less stringent mask-wearing intervention coordinated with influenza vaccination.
Conclusions
The results added to our understandings of future influenza dynamics after the global decline during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In light of the uncertainty on the incoming circulation strains and the relatively low negative impacts of mask wearing on society, our findings suggested that wearing mask could be considered as an accompanying mitigation measure in influenza prevention and control, especially for seasons after long periods of low-exposure to influenza viruses.
1039-1045
Han, Shasha
c94abd4f-c9d7-43df-9752-537e90d66519
Zhang, Ting
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Lyu, Yan
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Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Dai, Peixi
c889c045-d2b5-4da5-b5cf-83e6166d8159
Zheng, Jiandong
c2c5cbcd-a0a8-4b49-b026-b099c99b794d
Yang, Weizhong
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Zhou, Xiaohua
056ba0de-5073-436b-bea2-38954758aeda
Feng, Luzhao
fc5c1f00-75ae-41de-9cb7-f17719bb0c6f
3 December 2021
Han, Shasha
c94abd4f-c9d7-43df-9752-537e90d66519
Zhang, Ting
c431664e-ee5e-433f-9895-9c8a01dedb28
Lyu, Yan
5ac2bd0b-6206-4c36-b2f2-59f8e21c5849
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Dai, Peixi
c889c045-d2b5-4da5-b5cf-83e6166d8159
Zheng, Jiandong
c2c5cbcd-a0a8-4b49-b026-b099c99b794d
Yang, Weizhong
65d18fbc-d752-42a7-ac38-01534ceda15c
Zhou, Xiaohua
056ba0de-5073-436b-bea2-38954758aeda
Feng, Luzhao
fc5c1f00-75ae-41de-9cb7-f17719bb0c6f
Han, Shasha, Zhang, Ting, Lyu, Yan, Lai, Shengjie, Dai, Peixi, Zheng, Jiandong, Yang, Weizhong, Zhou, Xiaohua and Feng, Luzhao
(2021)
The Incoming Influenza Season — China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, 2021–2022.
China CDC Weekly, 3 (49), .
(doi:10.46234/ccdcw2021.253).
Abstract
Introduction
Seasonal influenza activity has declined globally since the widespread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. There has been scarce information to understand the future dynamics of influenza — and under different hypothesis on relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in particular — after the disruptions to seasonal patterns.
Methods
We collected data from public sources in China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and forecasted the influenza dynamics in the incoming 2021–2022 season under different NPIs. We considered Northern China and Southern China separately, due to the sharp difference in the patterns of seasonal influenza. For the United Kingdom, data were collected for England only.
Results
Compared to the epidemics in 2017–2019, longer and blunter influenza outbreaks could occur should NPIs be fully lifted, with percent positivity varying from 10.5 to 18.6 in the studying regions. The rebounds would be smaller if the mask-wearing intervention continued or the international mobility stayed low, but sharper if the mask-wearing intervention was lifted in the middle of influenza season. Further, influenza activity could stay low under a much less stringent mask-wearing intervention coordinated with influenza vaccination.
Conclusions
The results added to our understandings of future influenza dynamics after the global decline during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In light of the uncertainty on the incoming circulation strains and the relatively low negative impacts of mask wearing on society, our findings suggested that wearing mask could be considered as an accompanying mitigation measure in influenza prevention and control, especially for seasons after long periods of low-exposure to influenza viruses.
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2021- China CDC Weekly- The Incoming Influenza Season—China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, 2021–2022
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Accepted/In Press date: 23 November 2021
Published date: 3 December 2021
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 453148
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/453148
ISSN: 2096-7071
PURE UUID: 548b13c1-42a8-48a4-a88b-20f87d2d2573
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Date deposited: 08 Jan 2022 22:40
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:52
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Contributors
Author:
Shasha Han
Author:
Ting Zhang
Author:
Yan Lyu
Author:
Peixi Dai
Author:
Jiandong Zheng
Author:
Weizhong Yang
Author:
Xiaohua Zhou
Author:
Luzhao Feng
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