Human mobility models reveal the underlying mechanism of seasonal movements across China

Abstract

Understanding the spatial interactions of human mobility is crucial for urban planning, traffic engineering, as well as for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Although many models have been developed to model human mobility, it is not clear whether such models could also capture the traveling mechanisms across different time periods (e.g. workdays, weekends or holidays). With one-year long nationwide location-based service (LBS) data in China, we investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of population movements during different time periods, and make thorough comparisons for the applicability of five state-of-the-art human mobility models. We find that population flows show significant periodicity and strong inequality across temporal and spatial distribution. A strong ?backflow? effect is found for cross-city movements before and after holidays. Parameter fitting of gravity models reveals that travels in different type of days consider the attractiveness of destinations and cost of distance differently. Surprisingly, the comparison indicates that the parameter-free opportunity priority selection (OPS) model outperforms other models and is the best to characterize human mobility in China across all six different types of days. However, there is still an urgent need for development of more dedicated models for human mobility on weekends and different types of holidays.

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ORCID for Shengjie Lai: orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148

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