Explaining the educational divide in electoral behaviour: testing direct and indirect effects from British elections and referendums 2016–2019
Explaining the educational divide in electoral behaviour: testing direct and indirect effects from British elections and referendums 2016–2019
An educational divide has become apparent in Western democratic politics. Our understanding of why this divide has emerged remains limited as existing studies have not utilized mediation methodologies, which allow detailed examination of how education’s shaping effect on electoral behaviour is transmitted. This study addresses this gap in knowledge – providing a more complete picture of why modern British politics divide along educational lines. It applies the Karlson–Holm–Breen method to British Election Study data to explore firstly, what proportion of education’s total effect on vote choices, cast in the 2016 referendum, 2017 and 2019 General Elections, was transmitted indirectly, and secondly, the relative contribution of economic orientations, cultural attitudes and political cue-taking behaviours as drivers of this divide. Findings show 67–91% of education’s total effect on vote choices was transmitted indirectly and crucially, that vote choices divided along educational lines largely because educational groups exhibited divergent economic orientations, cultural attitudes and cue-taking behaviours. Results also highlight that educational division(s) in the referendum and General Election voting were driven by different mechanisms.
Simon, Elizabeth
36fefac9-7b40-47da-8638-46b54be1b56e
17 December 2021
Simon, Elizabeth
36fefac9-7b40-47da-8638-46b54be1b56e
Simon, Elizabeth
(2021)
Explaining the educational divide in electoral behaviour: testing direct and indirect effects from British elections and referendums 2016–2019.
Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties.
(doi:10.1080/17457289.2021.2013247).
Abstract
An educational divide has become apparent in Western democratic politics. Our understanding of why this divide has emerged remains limited as existing studies have not utilized mediation methodologies, which allow detailed examination of how education’s shaping effect on electoral behaviour is transmitted. This study addresses this gap in knowledge – providing a more complete picture of why modern British politics divide along educational lines. It applies the Karlson–Holm–Breen method to British Election Study data to explore firstly, what proportion of education’s total effect on vote choices, cast in the 2016 referendum, 2017 and 2019 General Elections, was transmitted indirectly, and secondly, the relative contribution of economic orientations, cultural attitudes and political cue-taking behaviours as drivers of this divide. Findings show 67–91% of education’s total effect on vote choices was transmitted indirectly and crucially, that vote choices divided along educational lines largely because educational groups exhibited divergent economic orientations, cultural attitudes and cue-taking behaviours. Results also highlight that educational division(s) in the referendum and General Election voting were driven by different mechanisms.
Text
Explaining the educational divide in electoral behaviour testing direct and indirect effects from British elections and referendums 2016 2019
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Accepted/In Press date: 26 October 2021
Published date: 17 December 2021
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© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
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Local EPrints ID: 453842
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/453842
ISSN: 1745-7289
PURE UUID: 608c7f98-2154-4227-9c39-92f925323d33
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Date deposited: 25 Jan 2022 17:38
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 15:14
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Elizabeth Simon
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